Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$148,571 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
27%
$148,571 Wol.
June Meeting
$14,616 Wol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,008 Wol.
6%
September Meeting
$161 Wol.
16%
October Meeting
$1,477 Wol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$148,571Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$148,571Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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