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Polityka·Wybory Globalne

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Polityka·Wybory Globalne

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Mike Cubbard 15.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.5%

Polymarket

$45,729 Wol.

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Mike Cubbard 15.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.5%

Polymarket

$45,729 Wol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 Wol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,514 Wol.

33%

Niall Murphy

$1,833 Wol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,646 Wol.

11%

Orla Nugent

$1,641 Wol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$3,887 Wol.

7%

Denman Rooke

$1,612 Wol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,031 Wol.

44%

Thomas Welby

$1,697 Wol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,113 Wol.

11%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 Wol.

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May to replace Catherine Connolly, elected president in October 2025, shows trader consensus centering on Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne as the primary contenders. Recent polling from early May indicates a narrow first-preference lead for Kyne over Thomas, with Labour's Helen Ogbu placing third amid a fragmented left-wing vote. Thomas's positioning stems from his established local profile as a former councillor with strong Connemara backing and prior independent gains, while Kyne emphasizes his Senate and former Dáil experience alongside government-party resources. The market's modest edge for Thomas over Kyne aligns with historical by-election patterns favoring independents on transfers in multi-candidate races focused on local issues such as cost of living and housing. Other listed candidates trail due to narrower party or regional support.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Wolumen
$45,729
Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May to replace Catherine Connolly, elected president in October 2025, shows trader consensus centering on Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne as the primary contenders. Recent polling from early May indicates a narrow first-preference lead for Kyne over Thomas, with Labour's Helen Ogbu placing third amid a fragmented left-wing vote. Thomas's positioning stems from his established local profile as a former councillor with strong Connemara backing and prior independent gains, while Kyne emphasizes his Senate and former Dáil experience alongside government-party resources. The market's modest edge for Thomas over Kyne aligns with historical by-election patterns favoring independents on transfers in multi-candidate races focused on local issues such as cost of living and housing. Other listed candidates trail due to narrower party or regional support.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Wolumen
$45,729
Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Często zadawane pytania

"Galway-West By-Election Winner?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 11 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Noel Thomas" z 44%, za nim "Seán Kyne" z 33%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 44¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 44% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" wygenerował $45.7K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 26, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Galway-West By-Election Winner?", przeglądaj 11 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" jest "Noel Thomas" z 44%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 44% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Seán Kyne" z 33%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.