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Technologia·Science

How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?

icon for How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?
Technologia·Science

How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?

NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,462 Wol.

Polymarket

40%+

$3,148 Wol.

98%

50%+

$313 Wol.

64%

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Community optimizations of quantum circuits for the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP-256) on secp256k1 continue to advance the open ECDSA.fail leaderboard. Google’s March 2026 whitepaper established the fixed reference benchmark with Shor’s algorithm implementations using 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates, equivalent to under 500,000 physical qubits on superconducting hardware under standard error-correction assumptions. Open submissions have since improved the qubit-Toffoli product metric, achieving reported gains above 15% ahead of the fixed Google Pareto point by early June, through refined compilation techniques and algorithmic tweaks. Further model refinements or new entries could shift positioning before the June 30 resolution based on leaderboard snapshots.

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.

If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.

Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,462
Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Community optimizations of quantum circuits for the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP-256) on secp256k1 continue to advance the open ECDSA.fail leaderboard. Google’s March 2026 whitepaper established the fixed reference benchmark with Shor’s algorithm implementations using 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates, equivalent to under 500,000 physical qubits on superconducting hardware under standard error-correction assumptions. Open submissions have since improved the qubit-Toffoli product metric, achieving reported gains above 15% ahead of the fixed Google Pareto point by early June, through refined compilation techniques and algorithmic tweaks. Further model refinements or new entries could shift positioning before the June 30 resolution based on leaderboard snapshots.

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.

If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.

Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,462
Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.

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