Trader consensus places the 400-500k range narrowly ahead of 300-400k at 34.5% and 32.5%, reflecting uncertainty over 2026 deportation totals under expanded immigration enforcement. Recent executive actions prioritizing interior removals, combined with congressional appropriations for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, have shaped expectations around operational capacity and removal targets. Court rulings on asylum procedures and state-level cooperation with federal authorities continue to affect execution rates. The close spread between leading outcomes highlights variables such as funding levels, logistical constraints, and potential policy adjustments that could shift annual figures before year-end resolution.