**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k deportations for 2026 at 56% implied probability, reflecting the current pace of ICE removals amid expanded enforcement capacity but persistent operational constraints.** Official data show removals running at roughly 1,200–1,400 per day through mid-2026, projecting an annual total near or slightly above 450,000 for the fiscal year. This level exceeds 2025 figures yet falls short of administration targets exceeding one million annually. Recent months have featured flat deportation trends despite record detention populations and doubled interior arrests, with enforcement prioritizing criminal noncitizens. Legal challenges, court orders, and local resistance in sanctuary jurisdictions have limited scaling, while self-deportations and border encounter declines contribute to overall outflows but do not directly count toward formal removal statistics. Upcoming congressional funding decisions and potential policy adjustments could influence year-end totals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many people will Trump deport in 2026?
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
400-500k 64%
300-400k 16%
500-600k 9.3%
>1m 3.3%
$122,684 Wol.
$122,684 Wol.
<200k
2%
200-300k
<1%
300-400k
16%
400-500k
57%
500-600k
9%
600-700k
2%
700-800k
1%
800-900k
2%
900k-1m
1%
>1m
3%
400-500k 64%
300-400k 16%
500-600k 9.3%
>1m 3.3%
$122,684 Wol.
$122,684 Wol.
<200k
2%
200-300k
<1%
300-400k
16%
400-500k
57%
500-600k
9%
600-700k
2%
700-800k
1%
800-900k
2%
900k-1m
1%
>1m
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k deportations for 2026 at 56% implied probability, reflecting the current pace of ICE removals amid expanded enforcement capacity but persistent operational constraints.** Official data show removals running at roughly 1,200–1,400 per day through mid-2026, projecting an annual total near or slightly above 450,000 for the fiscal year. This level exceeds 2025 figures yet falls short of administration targets exceeding one million annually. Recent months have featured flat deportation trends despite record detention populations and doubled interior arrests, with enforcement prioritizing criminal noncitizens. Legal challenges, court orders, and local resistance in sanctuary jurisdictions have limited scaling, while self-deportations and border encounter declines contribute to overall outflows but do not directly count toward formal removal statistics. Upcoming congressional funding decisions and potential policy adjustments could influence year-end totals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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