Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through its 2026-2028 levels plan, capping new permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while slashing temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026 from prior peaks near 674,000. These measures, aimed at reducing the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by late 2027, have produced consecutive quarterly declines since mid-2025, including drops exceeding 76,000 and 103,000 people in successive periods. Statistics Canada data through early 2026 confirm net population losses driven by outflows of international students and temporary workers, establishing a trajectory where the full-year 2026 contraction could surpass previous records amid sustained policy restraint. Trader consensus at 84.5% for “Yes” reflects these verified reductions in inflows and ongoing quarterly trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
86% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 29, 2027
86% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 29, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through its 2026-2028 levels plan, capping new permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while slashing temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026 from prior peaks near 674,000. These measures, aimed at reducing the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by late 2027, have produced consecutive quarterly declines since mid-2025, including drops exceeding 76,000 and 103,000 people in successive periods. Statistics Canada data through early 2026 confirm net population losses driven by outflows of international students and temporary workers, establishing a trajectory where the full-year 2026 contraction could surpass previous records amid sustained policy restraint. Trader consensus at 84.5% for “Yes” reflects these verified reductions in inflows and ongoing quarterly trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,813Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through its 2026-2028 levels plan, capping new permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while slashing temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026 from prior peaks near 674,000. These measures, aimed at reducing the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by late 2027, have produced consecutive quarterly declines since mid-2025, including drops exceeding 76,000 and 103,000 people in successive periods. Statistics Canada data through early 2026 confirm net population losses driven by outflows of international students and temporary workers, establishing a trajectory where the full-year 2026 contraction could surpass previous records amid sustained policy restraint. Trader consensus at 84.5% for “Yes” reflects these verified reductions in inflows and ongoing quarterly trends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,813Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through its 2026-2028 levels plan, capping new permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while slashing temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026 from prior peaks near 674,000. These measures, aimed at reducing the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by late 2027, have produced consecutive quarterly declines since mid-2025, including drops exceeding 76,000 and 103,000 people in successive periods. Statistics Canada data through early 2026 confirm net population losses driven by outflows of international students and temporary workers, establishing a trajectory where the full-year 2026 contraction could surpass previous records amid sustained policy restraint. Trader consensus at 84.5% for “Yes” reflects these verified reductions in inflows and ongoing quarterly trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania