Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle SpaceX Starship wystartuje w kosmosie w 2026 roku?
Ile SpaceX Starship wystartuje w kosmosie w 2026 roku?
<5 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 Wol.
$450,036 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
52%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 Wol.
$450,036 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,622 Wol.
52%
5-6
$108,327 Wol.
26%
7-8
$152,207 Wol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Wol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Wol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Wol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Wol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$450,036Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$450,036Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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