SpaceX’s ongoing transition to Starship V3 hardware, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a new Boca Chica launch pad, remains the main driver keeping the market-implied probability of fewer than five space-reaching flights in 2026 near 50 percent. As of mid-May, only the twelfth integrated test flight has been scheduled, with Flight 12 now targeted for late May after earlier delays from booster damage and licensing reviews. Traders see the combination of incremental flight profiles, FAA approval timelines, and the need to demonstrate propellant transfer later this year as significant barriers to rapid cadence. While successful V3 milestones could unlock more attempts by year-end, historical patterns of testing setbacks and regulatory scrutiny continue to anchor sentiment toward a modest total for the full calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle SpaceX Starship wystartuje w kosmosie w 2026 roku?
Ile SpaceX Starship wystartuje w kosmosie w 2026 roku?
<5 50%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Wol.
$450,036 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
52%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 50%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Wol.
$450,036 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,622 Wol.
52%
5-6
$108,327 Wol.
26%
7-8
$152,207 Wol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Wol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Wol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Wol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Wol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s ongoing transition to Starship V3 hardware, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a new Boca Chica launch pad, remains the main driver keeping the market-implied probability of fewer than five space-reaching flights in 2026 near 50 percent. As of mid-May, only the twelfth integrated test flight has been scheduled, with Flight 12 now targeted for late May after earlier delays from booster damage and licensing reviews. Traders see the combination of incremental flight profiles, FAA approval timelines, and the need to demonstrate propellant transfer later this year as significant barriers to rapid cadence. While successful V3 milestones could unlock more attempts by year-end, historical patterns of testing setbacks and regulatory scrutiny continue to anchor sentiment toward a modest total for the full calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$450,036Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s ongoing transition to Starship V3 hardware, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a new Boca Chica launch pad, remains the main driver keeping the market-implied probability of fewer than five space-reaching flights in 2026 near 50 percent. As of mid-May, only the twelfth integrated test flight has been scheduled, with Flight 12 now targeted for late May after earlier delays from booster damage and licensing reviews. Traders see the combination of incremental flight profiles, FAA approval timelines, and the need to demonstrate propellant transfer later this year as significant barriers to rapid cadence. While successful V3 milestones could unlock more attempts by year-end, historical patterns of testing setbacks and regulatory scrutiny continue to anchor sentiment toward a modest total for the full calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$450,036Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s ongoing transition to Starship V3 hardware, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a new Boca Chica launch pad, remains the main driver keeping the market-implied probability of fewer than five space-reaching flights in 2026 near 50 percent. As of mid-May, only the twelfth integrated test flight has been scheduled, with Flight 12 now targeted for late May after earlier delays from booster damage and licensing reviews. Traders see the combination of incremental flight profiles, FAA approval timelines, and the need to demonstrate propellant transfer later this year as significant barriers to rapid cadence. While successful V3 milestones could unlock more attempts by year-end, historical patterns of testing setbacks and regulatory scrutiny continue to anchor sentiment toward a modest total for the full calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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