The Illinois 12th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader expectations for a Republican hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier faces an uphill path in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. This structural advantage, combined with Bost's established record on local priorities such as agriculture and manufacturing, has produced the current 93.5% Republican probability. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national midterm wave, a major personal or campaign development affecting Bost, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though historical patterns in similarly rated seats suggest limited room for reversal absent such catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
$17,926 Wol.
$17,926 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$17,926 Wol.
$17,926 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,790 Wol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,136 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 12th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader expectations for a Republican hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier faces an uphill path in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. This structural advantage, combined with Bost's established record on local priorities such as agriculture and manufacturing, has produced the current 93.5% Republican probability. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national midterm wave, a major personal or campaign development affecting Bost, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though historical patterns in similarly rated seats suggest limited room for reversal absent such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,926Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 12th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader expectations for a Republican hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier faces an uphill path in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. This structural advantage, combined with Bost's established record on local priorities such as agriculture and manufacturing, has produced the current 93.5% Republican probability. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national midterm wave, a major personal or campaign development affecting Bost, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though historical patterns in similarly rated seats suggest limited room for reversal absent such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$17,926Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 12th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+22 Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader expectations for a Republican hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mike Bost secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March primary, while Democrat Julie Fortier faces an uphill path in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. This structural advantage, combined with Bost's established record on local priorities such as agriculture and manufacturing, has produced the current 93.5% Republican probability. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected national midterm wave, a major personal or campaign development affecting Bost, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though historical patterns in similarly rated seats suggest limited room for reversal absent such catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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