Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C daily minimum on May 15 under a stable subtropical ridge and light overnight winds that limited radiational cooling. These conditions produced typical May nighttime temperatures without the clear skies or calm air needed for greater heat loss, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the exact 25°C outcome. Historical May lows in Hong Kong cluster between 23°C and 27°C depending on monsoon timing and cloud cover, providing climatological support for this result. A realistic shift toward 24°C would have required improbable pre-dawn clearing and reduced humidity, factors absent from the verified data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,353 Wol.
$65,353 Wol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$65,353 Wol.
$65,353 Wol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,543 Wol.
No
19°C
$2,325 Wol.
No
20°C
$2,408 Wol.
No
21°C
$2,288 Wol.
No
22°C
$3,899 Wol.
No
23°C
$5,213 Wol.
No
24°C
$12,500 Wol.
No
25°C
$9,293 Wol.
Yes
26°C
$12,095 Wol.
No
27°C
$8,536 Wol.
No
28°C or higher
$4,253 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C daily minimum on May 15 under a stable subtropical ridge and light overnight winds that limited radiational cooling. These conditions produced typical May nighttime temperatures without the clear skies or calm air needed for greater heat loss, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the exact 25°C outcome. Historical May lows in Hong Kong cluster between 23°C and 27°C depending on monsoon timing and cloud cover, providing climatological support for this result. A realistic shift toward 24°C would have required improbable pre-dawn clearing and reduced humidity, factors absent from the verified data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$65,353Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C daily minimum on May 15 under a stable subtropical ridge and light overnight winds that limited radiational cooling. These conditions produced typical May nighttime temperatures without the clear skies or calm air needed for greater heat loss, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the exact 25°C outcome. Historical May lows in Hong Kong cluster between 23°C and 27°C depending on monsoon timing and cloud cover, providing climatological support for this result. A realistic shift toward 24°C would have required improbable pre-dawn clearing and reduced humidity, factors absent from the verified data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$65,353Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C daily minimum on May 15 under a stable subtropical ridge and light overnight winds that limited radiational cooling. These conditions produced typical May nighttime temperatures without the clear skies or calm air needed for greater heat loss, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the exact 25°C outcome. Historical May lows in Hong Kong cluster between 23°C and 27°C depending on monsoon timing and cloud cover, providing climatological support for this result. A realistic shift toward 24°C would have required improbable pre-dawn clearing and reduced humidity, factors absent from the verified data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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