Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.1% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical disturbances and zero formation potential over the next seven days as of May 14, 2026. Mid-May conditions remain unfavorable, with sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification across much of the main development region, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear from emerging El Niño patterns. Historically, only four May hurricanes have occurred since the late 1800s, underscoring climatological rarity before June 1. Daily NHC outlooks resume May 15; a rapid tropical wave emergence with shear collapse could shift odds, though model consensus deems this improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$48,839 Wol.
$48,839 Wol.
May 31, 2026
$48,839 Wol.
$48,839 Wol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.1% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical disturbances and zero formation potential over the next seven days as of May 14, 2026. Mid-May conditions remain unfavorable, with sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification across much of the main development region, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear from emerging El Niño patterns. Historically, only four May hurricanes have occurred since the late 1800s, underscoring climatological rarity before June 1. Daily NHC outlooks resume May 15; a rapid tropical wave emergence with shear collapse could shift odds, though model consensus deems this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$48,839Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.1% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical disturbances and zero formation potential over the next seven days as of May 14, 2026. Mid-May conditions remain unfavorable, with sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification across much of the main development region, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear from emerging El Niño patterns. Historically, only four May hurricanes have occurred since the late 1800s, underscoring climatological rarity before June 1. Daily NHC outlooks resume May 15; a rapid tropical wave emergence with shear collapse could shift odds, though model consensus deems this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Wolumen
$48,839Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.1% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical disturbances and zero formation potential over the next seven days as of May 14, 2026. Mid-May conditions remain unfavorable, with sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification across much of the main development region, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear from emerging El Niño patterns. Historically, only four May hurricanes have occurred since the late 1800s, underscoring climatological rarity before June 1. Daily NHC outlooks resume May 15; a rapid tropical wave emergence with shear collapse could shift odds, though model consensus deems this improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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