Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 16?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 16?
13°C 47%
14°C 26%
12°C 21%
11°C 3.9%
NOWE
$13,398 Wol.
NOWE
$13,398 Wol.
May 16, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
4%
12°C
21%
13°C
47%
14°C
26%
15°C
3%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 47%
14°C 26%
12°C 21%
11°C 3.9%
NOWE
$13,398 Wol.
NOWE
$13,398 Wol.
May 16, 2026
8°C or below
$1,863 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$1,389 Wol.
<1%
10°C
$1,330 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$673 Wol.
4%
12°C
$1,263 Wol.
21%
13°C
$1,802 Wol.
47%
14°C
$1,669 Wol.
26%
15°C
$511 Wol.
3%
16°C
$564 Wol.
1%
17°C
$944 Wol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,391 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Wolumen
$13,398Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$13,398Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on May 16, mirroring the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a daytime maximum around 13°C under changeable skies with light showers (70% chance, 1-2 mm totals) and intermittent sun. This reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and national model ensembles at 12–14°C, driven by a persistent cool maritime air mass from the North Sea, moderated by westerly winds (Beaufort force 3) and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. May 15 observations at Schiphol Airport logged highs near 10°C amid light rain, extending a below-climatological-average pattern (mid-May norm ~16°C). Updated KNMI bulletins and model runs expected overnight may adjust short-range guidance ahead of official hourly measurements resolving the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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