Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts place New York City’s May 19 overnight low in a wide 55–70 °F range, with the bulk of solutions clustering near 64–67 °F and driving the 66–67 °F bin to the highest implied probability. Variable cloud cover and a weak frontal boundary expected to pass late on the 18th will modulate overnight radiative cooling and wind speeds, producing the observed market dispersion across adjacent bins. Model spread remains large because guidance diverges on the exact timing and strength of this feature, while climatological mid-May Central Park lows average near 55 °F. Updated 12Z and 00Z model runs over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution and likely shift probabilities among the 62–69 °F outcomes before resolution.