Recent confirmation of a limited Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s remote Ituri province, with 13 laboratory-confirmed cases and 65 deaths among 246 suspected reports as of May 15, 2026, underpins the 90 percent market-implied probability against an international emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and WHO teams have initiated rapid cross-border surveillance with Uganda and South Sudan, drawing on historical containment success in similar Zaire ebolavirus outbreaks where early detection and ring vaccination limited spread. Model projections and current low transmission rates outside affected health zones indicate that escalation to Public Health Emergency of International Concern thresholds remains unlikely within the six-week window, barring unexpected geographic expansion or case surges.