Current forecast models from global ensembles indicate a daytime peak near 37°C for Jeddah on May 17, driven by peak May solar insolation over the Red Sea coastal plain and light north-westerly winds that restrict sea-breeze moderation. This positions the 37°C-or-higher outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 73.5%. Mid-May climatology shows average highs of 35–36°C, with recent surface observations confirming 37–40°C under comparable synoptic patterns. Minor model spread around boundary-layer mixing and humidity could still allow a 36°C reading, though consensus favors at least 37°C before resolution tomorrow.