Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (30%) and 21°C (31%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight uncertainty in official AEMET forecasts pegging the maximum near 19-20°C amid persistent northerly winds at 15 km/h ushering cooler continental air and a 45% chance of scattered showers limiting insolation. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show observed highs dipping to 16°C on May 15—below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C—due to this anomalous cool air mass over Iberia. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads: warmer runs anticipate partial clearing boosting peaks to 21°C, while cooler outliers emphasize cloud persistence capping at 20°C. Final observational data from Madrid-Barajas airport today and evening model updates will sharpen resolution before tomorrow's midday peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
21°C 36%
20°C 32%
19°C 15%
22°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
15%
20°C
32%
21°C
36%
22°C
11%
23°C
4%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 36%
20°C 32%
19°C 15%
22°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
$1,840 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$195 Wol.
1%
17°C
$1,245 Wol.
1%
18°C
$706 Wol.
5%
19°C
$641 Wol.
15%
20°C
$520 Wol.
32%
21°C
$695 Wol.
36%
22°C
$240 Wol.
11%
23°C
$125 Wol.
4%
24°C
$640 Wol.
3%
25°C or higher
$996 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (30%) and 21°C (31%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight uncertainty in official AEMET forecasts pegging the maximum near 19-20°C amid persistent northerly winds at 15 km/h ushering cooler continental air and a 45% chance of scattered showers limiting insolation. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show observed highs dipping to 16°C on May 15—below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C—due to this anomalous cool air mass over Iberia. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads: warmer runs anticipate partial clearing boosting peaks to 21°C, while cooler outliers emphasize cloud persistence capping at 20°C. Final observational data from Madrid-Barajas airport today and evening model updates will sharpen resolution before tomorrow's midday peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Wolumen
$7,813Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (30%) and 21°C (31%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight uncertainty in official AEMET forecasts pegging the maximum near 19-20°C amid persistent northerly winds at 15 km/h ushering cooler continental air and a 45% chance of scattered showers limiting insolation. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show observed highs dipping to 16°C on May 15—below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C—due to this anomalous cool air mass over Iberia. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads: warmer runs anticipate partial clearing boosting peaks to 21°C, while cooler outliers emphasize cloud persistence capping at 20°C. Final observational data from Madrid-Barajas airport today and evening model updates will sharpen resolution before tomorrow's midday peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$7,813Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (30%) and 21°C (31%) for Madrid's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight uncertainty in official AEMET forecasts pegging the maximum near 19-20°C amid persistent northerly winds at 15 km/h ushering cooler continental air and a 45% chance of scattered showers limiting insolation. Recent developments over the past 48 hours show observed highs dipping to 16°C on May 15—below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C—due to this anomalous cool air mass over Iberia. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads: warmer runs anticipate partial clearing boosting peaks to 21°C, while cooler outliers emphasize cloud persistence capping at 20°C. Final observational data from Madrid-Barajas airport today and evening model updates will sharpen resolution before tomorrow's midday peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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