Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
24°C or higher 99.4%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
23°C <1%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
99%
24°C or higher 99.4%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
23°C <1%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$466 Wol.
<1%
15°C
$484 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$484 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$532 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$466 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$749 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$537 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$737 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$710 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$749 Wol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$734 Wol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,646Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$6,646Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 24°C or higher in Mexico City on May 16, with 99.3% implied probability, driven by consistent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting highs of 24-27°C amid a stable warm pattern. Recent SMN advisories through May 14 confirm this trend, with observed highs in the Valle de México reaching 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with May climatology where average highs hit 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation during the dry season peak. Model ensembles from SMN's 96-hour outlook show low support for cooling influences like cold fronts, which are rare this late in spring. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen influx of cooler mid-level air or heavy showers suppressing daytime heating, though such shifts remain improbable per current guidance; expect refined SMN updates on May 15.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania