Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Tokyo's May 16 high temperature clustering around 25-27°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild southerly flows and partial sunshine. The slight edge to 26°C stems from JMA's latest short-range guidance showing peak afternoon heating near that mark, with historical mid-May averages of 23°C nudged higher by seasonal warming and urban heat effects. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—more overcast skies could cap at 25°C, while clearer conditions enable 27°C—while 28°C+ remains unlikely absent unusual subsidence. Updated JMA forecasts due twice daily may refine these market-implied odds before resolution at Tokyo's official station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
26°C 34%
25°C 28%
27°C 21%
24°C 11%
NOWE
$25,700 Wol.
NOWE
$25,700 Wol.
May 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
11%
25°C
28%
26°C
34%
27°C
21%
28°C or higher
5%
26°C 34%
25°C 28%
27°C 21%
24°C 11%
NOWE
$25,700 Wol.
NOWE
$25,700 Wol.
May 16, 2026
18°C or below
$3,241 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$8,269 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$6,539 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$852 Wol.
1%
22°C
$2,356 Wol.
1%
23°C
$796 Wol.
3%
24°C
$667 Wol.
11%
25°C
$659 Wol.
28%
26°C
$597 Wol.
34%
27°C
$845 Wol.
21%
28°C or higher
$878 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Tokyo's May 16 high temperature clustering around 25-27°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild southerly flows and partial sunshine. The slight edge to 26°C stems from JMA's latest short-range guidance showing peak afternoon heating near that mark, with historical mid-May averages of 23°C nudged higher by seasonal warming and urban heat effects. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—more overcast skies could cap at 25°C, while clearer conditions enable 27°C—while 28°C+ remains unlikely absent unusual subsidence. Updated JMA forecasts due twice daily may refine these market-implied odds before resolution at Tokyo's official station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$25,700Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Tokyo's May 16 high temperature clustering around 25-27°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild southerly flows and partial sunshine. The slight edge to 26°C stems from JMA's latest short-range guidance showing peak afternoon heating near that mark, with historical mid-May averages of 23°C nudged higher by seasonal warming and urban heat effects. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—more overcast skies could cap at 25°C, while clearer conditions enable 27°C—while 28°C+ remains unlikely absent unusual subsidence. Updated JMA forecasts due twice daily may refine these market-implied odds before resolution at Tokyo's official station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$25,700Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Tokyo's May 16 high temperature clustering around 25-27°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild southerly flows and partial sunshine. The slight edge to 26°C stems from JMA's latest short-range guidance showing peak afternoon heating near that mark, with historical mid-May averages of 23°C nudged higher by seasonal warming and urban heat effects. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover variability—more overcast skies could cap at 25°C, while clearer conditions enable 27°C—while 28°C+ remains unlikely absent unusual subsidence. Updated JMA forecasts due twice daily may refine these market-implied odds before resolution at Tokyo's official station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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