Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of forecast model ensembles around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, driven by latest IMGW and international model runs showing persistent overcast skies and scattered showers from a deepening upper-level trough over Central Europe. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF updates have converged on cooler northerly flow capping highs below seasonal norms (typically 19°C mid-May), with drizzle and 2–3 mm precipitation limiting solar heating in the planetary boundary layer. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in afternoon cloud breaks and shower timing—persistent overcast favors 14°C, while partial clearing tips toward 16°C. Watch IMGW's May 15 briefing and overnight model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
14°C 32%
16°C 27%
15°C 26%
13°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
9%
13°C
19%
14°C
32%
15°C
28%
16°C
20%
17°C
3%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
14°C 32%
16°C 27%
15°C 26%
13°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
$337 Wol.
9%
13°C
$183 Wol.
19%
14°C
$86 Wol.
32%
15°C
$132 Wol.
28%
16°C
$287 Wol.
20%
17°C
$22 Wol.
3%
18°C
$25 Wol.
2%
19°C
$25 Wol.
1%
20°C
$138 Wol.
1%
21°C
$130 Wol.
1%
22°C or higher
$148 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of forecast model ensembles around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, driven by latest IMGW and international model runs showing persistent overcast skies and scattered showers from a deepening upper-level trough over Central Europe. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF updates have converged on cooler northerly flow capping highs below seasonal norms (typically 19°C mid-May), with drizzle and 2–3 mm precipitation limiting solar heating in the planetary boundary layer. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in afternoon cloud breaks and shower timing—persistent overcast favors 14°C, while partial clearing tips toward 16°C. Watch IMGW's May 15 briefing and overnight model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,512Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of forecast model ensembles around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, driven by latest IMGW and international model runs showing persistent overcast skies and scattered showers from a deepening upper-level trough over Central Europe. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF updates have converged on cooler northerly flow capping highs below seasonal norms (typically 19°C mid-May), with drizzle and 2–3 mm precipitation limiting solar heating in the planetary boundary layer. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in afternoon cloud breaks and shower timing—persistent overcast favors 14°C, while partial clearing tips toward 16°C. Watch IMGW's May 15 briefing and overnight model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,512Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of forecast model ensembles around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, driven by latest IMGW and international model runs showing persistent overcast skies and scattered showers from a deepening upper-level trough over Central Europe. Over the past 48 hours, GFS and ECMWF updates have converged on cooler northerly flow capping highs below seasonal norms (typically 19°C mid-May), with drizzle and 2–3 mm precipitation limiting solar heating in the planetary boundary layer. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread in afternoon cloud breaks and shower timing—persistent overcast favors 14°C, while partial clearing tips toward 16°C. Watch IMGW's May 15 briefing and overnight model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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