Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, with 25°C at 38% implied probability leading 24°C (30.5%) and 26°C (18%), reflecting model ensemble spread amid forecast uncertainty. The China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest guidance projects overcast skies and light southeasterly winds under 12 km/h, capping peak heating around 24-26°C after recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showed slight cooling from prior 26-27°C projections. Current observations on May 14 confirm moderate humidity and cloud buildup from southerly moisture flow, differentiating outcomes via potential stratus deck persistence versus afternoon clearing. Historical May highs average 25°C near Pudong Airport, the resolution station; watch CMA hourly updates through midday for shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 40%
24°C 33%
26°C 16%
23°C 7%
NOWE
$39,782 Wol.
NOWE
$39,782 Wol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
33%
25°C
40%
26°C
16%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 40%
24°C 33%
26°C 16%
23°C 7%
NOWE
$39,782 Wol.
NOWE
$39,782 Wol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$5,222 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$3,396 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$4,913 Wol.
1%
23°C
$4,298 Wol.
7%
24°C
$4,037 Wol.
33%
25°C
$2,581 Wol.
40%
26°C
$2,507 Wol.
16%
27°C
$3,038 Wol.
7%
28°C
$4,631 Wol.
1%
29°C
$2,983 Wol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$2,192 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, with 25°C at 38% implied probability leading 24°C (30.5%) and 26°C (18%), reflecting model ensemble spread amid forecast uncertainty. The China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest guidance projects overcast skies and light southeasterly winds under 12 km/h, capping peak heating around 24-26°C after recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showed slight cooling from prior 26-27°C projections. Current observations on May 14 confirm moderate humidity and cloud buildup from southerly moisture flow, differentiating outcomes via potential stratus deck persistence versus afternoon clearing. Historical May highs average 25°C near Pudong Airport, the resolution station; watch CMA hourly updates through midday for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$39,782Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, with 25°C at 38% implied probability leading 24°C (30.5%) and 26°C (18%), reflecting model ensemble spread amid forecast uncertainty. The China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest guidance projects overcast skies and light southeasterly winds under 12 km/h, capping peak heating around 24-26°C after recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showed slight cooling from prior 26-27°C projections. Current observations on May 14 confirm moderate humidity and cloud buildup from southerly moisture flow, differentiating outcomes via potential stratus deck persistence versus afternoon clearing. Historical May highs average 25°C near Pudong Airport, the resolution station; watch CMA hourly updates through midday for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$39,782Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, with 25°C at 38% implied probability leading 24°C (30.5%) and 26°C (18%), reflecting model ensemble spread amid forecast uncertainty. The China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest guidance projects overcast skies and light southeasterly winds under 12 km/h, capping peak heating around 24-26°C after recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showed slight cooling from prior 26-27°C projections. Current observations on May 14 confirm moderate humidity and cloud buildup from southerly moisture flow, differentiating outcomes via potential stratus deck persistence versus afternoon clearing. Historical May highs average 25°C near Pudong Airport, the resolution station; watch CMA hourly updates through midday for shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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