Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
25°C 37%
24°C 24%
26°C 22%
27°C 11%
NOWE
$41,826 Wol.
NOWE
$41,826 Wol.
May 16, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
24%
25°C
37%
26°C
22%
27°C
11%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 37%
24°C 24%
26°C 22%
27°C 11%
NOWE
$41,826 Wol.
NOWE
$41,826 Wol.
May 16, 2026
21°C or below
$10,433 Wol.
1%
22°C
$5,646 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$3,734 Wol.
3%
24°C
$3,847 Wol.
24%
25°C
$3,364 Wol.
37%
26°C
$1,959 Wol.
22%
27°C
$1,882 Wol.
11%
28°C
$3,173 Wol.
4%
29°C
$3,276 Wol.
1%
30°C
$2,766 Wol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,808 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$41,826Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$41,826Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25°C high in Shanghai on May 16 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS converging on a peak surface temperature around 24–26°C under high-pressure ridging and mostly clear skies with light breezy conditions. This positioning reflects mid-May climatological norms, where daily highs average 25°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station—with recent variability including a cooler May 14 (~23°C) and warmer May 12 (28°C) amid shifting frontal passages. Inherent forecast uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud development or sea breeze modulation could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; monitor hourly observations and evening model updates for final cues.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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