Recent forecast model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 20–22°C at official Istanbul Airport monitoring stations on May 17, under mild high-pressure ridging with partial cloud cover and moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus. This aligns with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically average near 21°C, though the spread across outcomes from 19°C to 23°C or higher reflects ongoing uncertainty in afternoon clearing versus persistent marine air influence. Key variables include wind direction shifts that could enhance or suppress solar heating, updated model runs overnight, and final hourly observations before resolution, creating the current trader-implied distribution centered around 21°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
21°C 33%
20°C 21%
22°C 21%
19°C 8.8%
NOWE
NOWE
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
21%
21°C
33%
22°C
21%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
5%
21°C 33%
20°C 21%
22°C 21%
19°C 8.8%
NOWE
NOWE
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$552 Wol.
<1%
15°C
$411 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$838 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$914 Wol.
1%
18°C
$1,559 Wol.
2%
19°C
$1,501 Wol.
9%
20°C
$510 Wol.
21%
21°C
$82 Wol.
33%
22°C
$378 Wol.
21%
23°C
$1,078 Wol.
7%
24°C or higher
$1,121 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 20–22°C at official Istanbul Airport monitoring stations on May 17, under mild high-pressure ridging with partial cloud cover and moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus. This aligns with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically average near 21°C, though the spread across outcomes from 19°C to 23°C or higher reflects ongoing uncertainty in afternoon clearing versus persistent marine air influence. Key variables include wind direction shifts that could enhance or suppress solar heating, updated model runs overnight, and final hourly observations before resolution, creating the current trader-implied distribution centered around 21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,944Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 20–22°C at official Istanbul Airport monitoring stations on May 17, under mild high-pressure ridging with partial cloud cover and moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus. This aligns with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically average near 21°C, though the spread across outcomes from 19°C to 23°C or higher reflects ongoing uncertainty in afternoon clearing versus persistent marine air influence. Key variables include wind direction shifts that could enhance or suppress solar heating, updated model runs overnight, and final hourly observations before resolution, creating the current trader-implied distribution centered around 21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$8,944Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles points to a peak temperature of 20–22°C at official Istanbul Airport monitoring stations on May 17, under mild high-pressure ridging with partial cloud cover and moderating sea breezes from the Bosphorus. This aligns with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically average near 21°C, though the spread across outcomes from 19°C to 23°C or higher reflects ongoing uncertainty in afternoon clearing versus persistent marine air influence. Key variables include wind direction shifts that could enhance or suppress solar heating, updated model runs overnight, and final hourly observations before resolution, creating the current trader-implied distribution centered around 21°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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