Current forecasts from meteorological models place Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on May 20 near 24–26 °C, reflecting the city’s subtropical May climatology where overnight lows typically rise from 23–24 °C early in the month to 24–25 °C by mid-May. Moderate humidity and frequent cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while weak southerly monsoon flow and scattered showers maintain near-normal temperatures without sharp drops. Trader consensus clusters around 24 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, yet slight shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could easily move the observed minimum by 1–2 °C. Updated Hong Kong Observatory guidance and refined model runs expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could realign probabilities among the tightly grouped central outcomes.