Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows a warming trend across northern France, with high pressure building and southerly flow replacing the cool northerly advection that produced sub-10°C lows earlier in May. This setup supports overnight minimums near 12–15°C at Paris-Le Bourget, consistent with the market’s highest-implied probability on 16°C or higher. Climatological baselines place typical mid-May lows at 9–11°C, so the current pattern reflects a departure from the recent cool spell driven by persistent cloud cover and Atlantic air. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour forecast updates for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lock in even milder radiational cooling limits.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on May 20?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 20?
9°C 36%
11°C 21%
12°C 21%
14°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
May 20, 2026
6°C or below
3%
7°C
19%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
21%
12°C
21%
13°C
19%
14°C
19%
15°C
19%
16°C or higher
43%
9°C 36%
11°C 21%
12°C 21%
14°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
May 20, 2026
6°C or below
$76 Wol.
3%
7°C
$110 Wol.
19%
8°C
$14 Wol.
19%
9°C
$20 Wol.
19%
10°C
$14 Wol.
19%
11°C
$14 Wol.
21%
12°C
$25 Wol.
21%
13°C
$14 Wol.
19%
14°C
$14 Wol.
19%
15°C
$14 Wol.
19%
16°C or higher
$78 Wol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows a warming trend across northern France, with high pressure building and southerly flow replacing the cool northerly advection that produced sub-10°C lows earlier in May. This setup supports overnight minimums near 12–15°C at Paris-Le Bourget, consistent with the market’s highest-implied probability on 16°C or higher. Climatological baselines place typical mid-May lows at 9–11°C, so the current pattern reflects a departure from the recent cool spell driven by persistent cloud cover and Atlantic air. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour forecast updates for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lock in even milder radiational cooling limits.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$395Data zakończenia
May 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows a warming trend across northern France, with high pressure building and southerly flow replacing the cool northerly advection that produced sub-10°C lows earlier in May. This setup supports overnight minimums near 12–15°C at Paris-Le Bourget, consistent with the market’s highest-implied probability on 16°C or higher. Climatological baselines place typical mid-May lows at 9–11°C, so the current pattern reflects a departure from the recent cool spell driven by persistent cloud cover and Atlantic air. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour forecast updates for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lock in even milder radiational cooling limits.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$395Data zakończenia
May 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBRecent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows a warming trend across northern France, with high pressure building and southerly flow replacing the cool northerly advection that produced sub-10°C lows earlier in May. This setup supports overnight minimums near 12–15°C at Paris-Le Bourget, consistent with the market’s highest-implied probability on 16°C or higher. Climatological baselines place typical mid-May lows at 9–11°C, so the current pattern reflects a departure from the recent cool spell driven by persistent cloud cover and Atlantic air. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour forecast updates for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lock in even milder radiational cooling limits.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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