Current forecast consensus from Météo-France and ensemble numerical weather prediction models points to a minimum temperature of 6°C in Paris on May 16, driven by overnight radiative cooling under stable high pressure with light winds and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average lows near 10°C have been suppressed by a cooler air mass advecting from the north, producing consistent model outputs that exclude significant further drops. Official observations at the Le Bourget reference station are expected to confirm the exact reading by day’s end, locking in market-implied odds above 99%. Only an abrupt shift in cloud cover or unforecasted wind strengthening could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on May 16?
6°C 99.6%
0°C or below <1%
1°C <1%
4°C <1%
$14,763 Wol.
$14,763 Wol.
0°C or below
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
100%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C or higher
<1%
6°C 99.6%
0°C or below <1%
1°C <1%
4°C <1%
$14,763 Wol.
$14,763 Wol.
0°C or below
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
100%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBCurrent forecast consensus from Météo-France and ensemble numerical weather prediction models points to a minimum temperature of 6°C in Paris on May 16, driven by overnight radiative cooling under stable high pressure with light winds and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average lows near 10°C have been suppressed by a cooler air mass advecting from the north, producing consistent model outputs that exclude significant further drops. Official observations at the Le Bourget reference station are expected to confirm the exact reading by day’s end, locking in market-implied odds above 99%. Only an abrupt shift in cloud cover or unforecasted wind strengthening could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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