Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Tokyo's May 16 overnight low clustering tightly around 15–16°C, driving trader consensus with 27.5% implied probability for 15°C and 25% for 16°C amid minor spreads in predicted cloud cover and light winds that could enhance or limit nocturnal radiative cooling. A cold front that swept the Kanto Plain on May 10–11 produced recent lows below 15°C, setting a cooler-than-average mid-May baseline (historical norms 14–17°C), though partial clearing is expected. Uncertainties in boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects differentiate outcomes, with JMA's daily updates through May 15 likely to sharpen model convergence before resolution at Tokyo station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
16°C 32%
15°C 27%
17°C 17%
13°C or below 11.0%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
14%
14°C
14%
15°C
27%
16°C
32%
17°C
17%
18°C
5%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 32%
15°C 27%
17°C 17%
13°C or below 11.0%
NOWE
NOWE
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$307 Wol.
14%
14°C
$10 Wol.
14%
15°C
$184 Wol.
27%
16°C
$15 Wol.
32%
17°C
$75 Wol.
17%
18°C
$98 Wol.
5%
19°C
$89 Wol.
1%
20°C
$673 Wol.
1%
21°C
$155 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$302 Wol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$637 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Tokyo's May 16 overnight low clustering tightly around 15–16°C, driving trader consensus with 27.5% implied probability for 15°C and 25% for 16°C amid minor spreads in predicted cloud cover and light winds that could enhance or limit nocturnal radiative cooling. A cold front that swept the Kanto Plain on May 10–11 produced recent lows below 15°C, setting a cooler-than-average mid-May baseline (historical norms 14–17°C), though partial clearing is expected. Uncertainties in boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects differentiate outcomes, with JMA's daily updates through May 15 likely to sharpen model convergence before resolution at Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,545Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Tokyo's May 16 overnight low clustering tightly around 15–16°C, driving trader consensus with 27.5% implied probability for 15°C and 25% for 16°C amid minor spreads in predicted cloud cover and light winds that could enhance or limit nocturnal radiative cooling. A cold front that swept the Kanto Plain on May 10–11 produced recent lows below 15°C, setting a cooler-than-average mid-May baseline (historical norms 14–17°C), though partial clearing is expected. Uncertainties in boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects differentiate outcomes, with JMA's daily updates through May 15 likely to sharpen model convergence before resolution at Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$2,545Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTJapan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Tokyo's May 16 overnight low clustering tightly around 15–16°C, driving trader consensus with 27.5% implied probability for 15°C and 25% for 16°C amid minor spreads in predicted cloud cover and light winds that could enhance or limit nocturnal radiative cooling. A cold front that swept the Kanto Plain on May 10–11 produced recent lows below 15°C, setting a cooler-than-average mid-May baseline (historical norms 14–17°C), though partial clearing is expected. Uncertainties in boundary layer stability and urban heat island effects differentiate outcomes, with JMA's daily updates through May 15 likely to sharpen model convergence before resolution at Tokyo station.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania