The market consensus strongly favors 24°C as Hong Kong’s minimum temperature for May 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Current observations place overnight lows near the seasonal May climatological average of 23–25°C, with minimal influence from frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures further. Model runs indicate low probability of the 1–2°C drops required for 23°C or below, consistent with typical pre-monsoon conditions lacking strong northerly surges. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour verification window, as any unexpected radiative cooling under clearer skies could still shift the recorded minimum within the narrow uncertainty band.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
24°C 87%
23°C 9%
22°C 2.3%
18°C or below <1%
$17,489 Wol.
$17,489 Wol.
May 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
87%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 87%
23°C 9%
22°C 2.3%
18°C or below <1%
$17,489 Wol.
$17,489 Wol.
May 16, 2026
18°C or below
$1,579 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$877 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$613 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$1,620 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$793 Wol.
2%
23°C
$796 Wol.
9%
24°C
$527 Wol.
87%
25°C
$3,797 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$4,049 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$1,328 Wol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,530 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market consensus strongly favors 24°C as Hong Kong’s minimum temperature for May 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Current observations place overnight lows near the seasonal May climatological average of 23–25°C, with minimal influence from frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures further. Model runs indicate low probability of the 1–2°C drops required for 23°C or below, consistent with typical pre-monsoon conditions lacking strong northerly surges. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour verification window, as any unexpected radiative cooling under clearer skies could still shift the recorded minimum within the narrow uncertainty band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,489Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market consensus strongly favors 24°C as Hong Kong’s minimum temperature for May 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Current observations place overnight lows near the seasonal May climatological average of 23–25°C, with minimal influence from frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures further. Model runs indicate low probability of the 1–2°C drops required for 23°C or below, consistent with typical pre-monsoon conditions lacking strong northerly surges. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour verification window, as any unexpected radiative cooling under clearer skies could still shift the recorded minimum within the narrow uncertainty band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$17,489Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThe market consensus strongly favors 24°C as Hong Kong’s minimum temperature for May 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models showing stable subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Current observations place overnight lows near the seasonal May climatological average of 23–25°C, with minimal influence from frontal systems or enhanced cloud cover that would otherwise suppress temperatures further. Model runs indicate low probability of the 1–2°C drops required for 23°C or below, consistent with typical pre-monsoon conditions lacking strong northerly surges. Traders are monitoring the final 24-hour verification window, as any unexpected radiative cooling under clearer skies could still shift the recorded minimum within the narrow uncertainty band.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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