Trader consensus in this New York City low-temperature market has converged on 54–55 °F with near-certainty, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent southerly flow and elevated dew points that limit overnight radiative cooling. Current surface analyses indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with minimal cold-air advection expected through the early-morning hours of May 16. Ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF places the minimum squarely in this narrow range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when average lows hover near 55 °F. Only an abrupt, unforecast frontal passage or localized urban heat-island measurement anomaly could shift the reading outside 52–57 °F, scenarios the models currently assign very low probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on May 16?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 16?
54-55°F 99.8%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$16,799 Wol.
$16,799 Wol.
May 16, 2026
43°F or below
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
100%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62°F or higher
<1%
54-55°F 99.8%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$16,799 Wol.
$16,799 Wol.
May 16, 2026
43°F or below
$552 Wol.
<1%
44-45°F
$661 Wol.
<1%
46-47°F
$408 Wol.
<1%
48-49°F
$1,223 Wol.
<1%
50-51°F
$392 Wol.
<1%
52-53°F
$1,747 Wol.
<1%
54-55°F
$2,430 Wol.
100%
56-57°F
$2,715 Wol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,629 Wol.
<1%
60-61°F
$2,615 Wol.
<1%
62°F or higher
$2,426 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus in this New York City low-temperature market has converged on 54–55 °F with near-certainty, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent southerly flow and elevated dew points that limit overnight radiative cooling. Current surface analyses indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with minimal cold-air advection expected through the early-morning hours of May 16. Ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF places the minimum squarely in this narrow range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when average lows hover near 55 °F. Only an abrupt, unforecast frontal passage or localized urban heat-island measurement anomaly could shift the reading outside 52–57 °F, scenarios the models currently assign very low probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$16,799Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus in this New York City low-temperature market has converged on 54–55 °F with near-certainty, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent southerly flow and elevated dew points that limit overnight radiative cooling. Current surface analyses indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with minimal cold-air advection expected through the early-morning hours of May 16. Ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF places the minimum squarely in this narrow range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when average lows hover near 55 °F. Only an abrupt, unforecast frontal passage or localized urban heat-island measurement anomaly could shift the reading outside 52–57 °F, scenarios the models currently assign very low probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$16,799Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATrader consensus in this New York City low-temperature market has converged on 54–55 °F with near-certainty, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent southerly flow and elevated dew points that limit overnight radiative cooling. Current surface analyses indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with minimal cold-air advection expected through the early-morning hours of May 16. Ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF places the minimum squarely in this narrow range, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when average lows hover near 55 °F. Only an abrupt, unforecast frontal passage or localized urban heat-island measurement anomaly could shift the reading outside 52–57 °F, scenarios the models currently assign very low probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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