Forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project overnight lows in Taipei near 25–26°C for August 26, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (33%) and 26°C (38%). These probabilities reflect uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling under high humidity and expected showers, which limit temperature drops by trapping heat and reducing clear-sky heat loss. Urban heat island effects in the densely built city further buffer minimums above rural baselines, while steering patterns and any weak monsoon influences could shift the exact low by 1–2°C depending on wind and precipitation timing. With probabilities spread across 24–27°C, traders are pricing in minor model divergences typical for short-range tropical forecasts.