Forecast models show notable uncertainty for Wellington's overnight low on August 26, with ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS placing the most likely minimums near 11–13 °C. This clustering matches market-implied odds and stems from competing influences: possible clear-sky radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge versus mild northerly advection or increased cloud cover from an approaching weak front. Recent MetService guidance notes variable boundary-layer winds and moisture that can shift minimums by 1–2 °C. Historical late-winter climatology supports this range, while traders weigh the latest model runs against resolution criteria tied to official Wellington observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
12°C 35%
11°C 28%
13°C 27%
14°C 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
16%
10°C
13%
11°C
28%
12°C
35%
13°C
27%
14°C
21%
15°C
5%
16°C
1%
17°C
7%
18°C or higher
2%
12°C 35%
11°C 28%
13°C 27%
14°C 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
$15 Wol.
1%
9°C
$55 Wol.
16%
10°C
$10 Wol.
13%
11°C
$0 Wol.
28%
12°C
$0 Wol.
35%
13°C
$0 Wol.
27%
14°C
$0 Wol.
21%
15°C
$85 Wol.
5%
16°C
$5 Wol.
1%
17°C
$15 Wol.
7%
18°C or higher
$145 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show notable uncertainty for Wellington's overnight low on August 26, with ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS placing the most likely minimums near 11–13 °C. This clustering matches market-implied odds and stems from competing influences: possible clear-sky radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge versus mild northerly advection or increased cloud cover from an approaching weak front. Recent MetService guidance notes variable boundary-layer winds and moisture that can shift minimums by 1–2 °C. Historical late-winter climatology supports this range, while traders weigh the latest model runs against resolution criteria tied to official Wellington observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$330Data zakończenia
Aug 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show notable uncertainty for Wellington's overnight low on August 26, with ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS placing the most likely minimums near 11–13 °C. This clustering matches market-implied odds and stems from competing influences: possible clear-sky radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge versus mild northerly advection or increased cloud cover from an approaching weak front. Recent MetService guidance notes variable boundary-layer winds and moisture that can shift minimums by 1–2 °C. Historical late-winter climatology supports this range, while traders weigh the latest model runs against resolution criteria tied to official Wellington observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$330Data zakończenia
Aug 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models show notable uncertainty for Wellington's overnight low on August 26, with ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS placing the most likely minimums near 11–13 °C. This clustering matches market-implied odds and stems from competing influences: possible clear-sky radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge versus mild northerly advection or increased cloud cover from an approaching weak front. Recent MetService guidance notes variable boundary-layer winds and moisture that can shift minimums by 1–2 °C. Historical late-winter climatology supports this range, while traders weigh the latest model runs against resolution criteria tied to official Wellington observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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