Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS, largest recent M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). These extremes are historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by Colorado State University and NOAA forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition from weak La Niña toward neutral conditions, curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC advisories from June 1 and USGS seismic updates for potential shifts in model consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,937 Wol.
$217,937 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,937 Wol.
$217,937 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS, largest recent M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). These extremes are historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by Colorado State University and NOAA forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition from weak La Niña toward neutral conditions, curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC advisories from June 1 and USGS seismic updates for potential shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$217,937Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS, largest recent M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). These extremes are historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by Colorado State University and NOAA forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition from weak La Niña toward neutral conditions, curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC advisories from June 1 and USGS seismic updates for potential shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$217,937Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS, largest recent M7.5 near Tonga), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). These extremes are historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by Colorado State University and NOAA forecasts for below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition from weak La Niña toward neutral conditions, curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC advisories from June 1 and USGS seismic updates for potential shifts in model consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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