The NY-17 race centers on a Hudson Valley swing district carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, where incumbent Republican Mike Lawler seeks a third term against Democrat Cait Conley. Conley consolidated support after winning a crowded June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, positioning her as a veteran with national security experience in a seat Democrats view as winnable. Recent polling shows the contest within a few points, reflecting Lawler's prior narrow victories and the district's partisan balance. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the competitive baseline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNY-17 House Election Winner
NY-17 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
66%
Republican Party
29%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,001 Wol.
66%
Republican Party
$5,147 Wol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-17 race centers on a Hudson Valley swing district carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, where incumbent Republican Mike Lawler seeks a third term against Democrat Cait Conley. Conley consolidated support after winning a crowded June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, positioning her as a veteran with national security experience in a seat Democrats view as winnable. Recent polling shows the contest within a few points, reflecting Lawler's prior narrow victories and the district's partisan balance. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the competitive baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,148Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-17 race centers on a Hudson Valley swing district carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, where incumbent Republican Mike Lawler seeks a third term against Democrat Cait Conley. Conley consolidated support after winning a crowded June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, positioning her as a veteran with national security experience in a seat Democrats view as winnable. Recent polling shows the contest within a few points, reflecting Lawler's prior narrow victories and the district's partisan balance. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the competitive baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$9,148Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-17 race centers on a Hudson Valley swing district carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, where incumbent Republican Mike Lawler seeks a third term against Democrat Cait Conley. Conley consolidated support after winning a crowded June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, positioning her as a veteran with national security experience in a seat Democrats view as winnable. Recent polling shows the contest within a few points, reflecting Lawler's prior narrow victories and the district's partisan balance. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 66% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the competitive baseline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania