OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8 marks the clearest near-term catalyst, shifting trader focus toward a potential listing window in late 2026 or early 2027 at valuations nearing $1 trillion. The company has engaged Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley while preparing retail share allocations, yet executives emphasize that no firm timeline exists and certain initiatives remain easier privately. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s parallel filing and broader AI-sector momentum add urgency, though historical patterns show tech IPOs frequently slip due to market conditions or internal priorities. Key upcoming milestones include any public prospectus updates or earnings commentary that could clarify September versus year-end targets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOpenAI in talks to give US government up to 5% equity stake
Reports emerged that OpenAI was negotiating to allocate up to 5% equity to the US government via a Public Wealth Fund, raising novel antitrust and governance questions that added to IPO uncertainty.
OpenAI proposes 5% stake to US government to ease political pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%2%
OpenAI reportedly proposed giving the US government a 5% stake in the company to address political and regulatory concerns, reflecting strategic moves to smooth IPO path and regulatory relations, though timing impact on IPO remains uncertain.
OpenAI proposes giving U.S. government a 5% equity stake ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%1%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman proposed granting the U.S. government a 5% equity stake in the company, worth about $42.6 billion, aiming to align regulatory interests and potentially ease IPO-related regulatory hurdles, influencing market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
Market sentiment declines sharply on doubts about OpenAI IPO timing
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%23%
Despite formal filings and preparations, market prices for OpenAI IPO outcomes dropped sharply in July 2026, reflecting growing skepticism about the IPO occurring by the earlier target dates, possibly due to competitive pressures and market conditions.
OpenAI CFO signals company not ready for IPO, suggesting possible 2027 delay
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%31%
Internal signals from OpenAI's CFO indicated the company was not ready for an IPO, with the targeted September 2026 listing window possibly slipping into early 2027 due to SEC review and financial readiness concerns. This contributed to a significant price drop for the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting increased market doubts about a 2026 IPO.
Reports of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 amid valuation and market concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%14%
Rumors and reports emerged that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 as CEO Altman holds out for a $1 trillion valuation, influenced by SpaceX's IPO performance and market conditions. This led to a collapse in probabilities for all 2026 IPO dates.
Reports suggest OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Late June 2026 reports indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO until 2027, reflecting concerns over profitability and market conditions. This news caused a sharp drop in market prices for all near-term IPO outcomes, signaling diminished confidence in a 2026 public offering.
OpenAI Leans Toward Delaying IPO to 2027 Over $1 Trillion Valuation Target
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%32%
Reports revealed that Sam Altman rejected lowering OpenAI's $1 trillion valuation target to list in 2026, choosing instead to delay the public debut until 2027.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms IPO delay amid tech market volatility
Following media reports, OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the decision to delay the IPO to 2027, citing market conditions and valuation concerns. This confirmation further reduced market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
Market recalibrates OpenAI IPO timeline to 2027 after delay reports
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%45%
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay, prediction market traders adjusted their expectations, significantly lowering prices for 2026 IPO outcomes and increasing likelihood for a 2027 IPO announcement.
Market reacts to OpenAI IPO delay news with tech selloff and price drops
Following the reports of OpenAI delaying its IPO to 2027, the market saw a significant selloff in tech stocks and a sharp decline in the probabilities for near-term IPO dates across all outcomes. This reflected reduced confidence in a 2026 IPO and increased expectations for a 2027 listing.
OpenAI IPO delay to 2027? What’s confirmed, what changed
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%7%
EBC reported that OpenAI had not set a firm IPO date, reinforcing market belief that the 2026 deadline was uncertain and contributing to the final drop to 0% for the June‑30 outcome.
OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after Anthropic's expected debut
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%35%
Reports emerged that OpenAI might postpone its IPO until 2027, after Anthropic's anticipated public debut, causing a sharp decline in market confidence and prices across all IPO date options.
Bloomberg reports OpenAI considering IPO delay to 2027, impacting SoftBank shares
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%6%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until 2027, which negatively affected market sentiment and contributed to the collapse in near-term IPO probabilities, especially for June and July 2026.
Market sentiment shifts as OpenAI IPO delay rumors surface amid tech stock slump
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%30%
Following SpaceX's IPO and a broader tech market downturn, reports indicated OpenAI might postpone its IPO to 2027, reflecting investor caution and causing sharp declines in near-term IPO probabilities across all dates.
OpenAI may delay IPO after SpaceX’s rocky debut
August 31, 2026 plunges to 3%43%
Forbes noted that OpenAI’s advisers warned a 2026 listing might not attract sufficient retail demand after SpaceX’s turbulent IPO, reinforcing market pessimism for the August‑31 and July‑31 outcomes.
OpenAI CEO confirms IPO timing uncertain, may delay to 2027
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%3%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed the confidential IPO filing but reiterated that the timing of the public offering remains uncertain and 'it may be a while,' reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and supporting lower prices for near-term outcomes.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms confidential IPO filing, timing uncertain
CEO Sam Altman confirmed the confidential IPO filing but reiterated that the timing of the public offering remains uncertain, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and supporting lower prices for near-term outcomes.
OpenAI officially announces IPO delay to 2027 after advisor consultations
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%4%
Following internal deliberations and advisor recommendations, OpenAI publicly confirmed the decision to delay its IPO until 2027 to preserve valuation and market enthusiasm, effectively resolving the market to 'No' for any 2026 IPO completion.
Market speculation grows that OpenAI IPO will occur in early 2027
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay, market speculators and prediction markets adjusted expectations, with only about one-in-three odds for a 2026 IPO and a high likelihood of an IPO by June 2027. This reflected diminished confidence in a 2026 IPO and reinforced the delay narrative.
CNBC: OpenAI likely to postpone IPO after June filing and NYT delay report
August 31, 2026 plunges to 1%45%
CNBC highlighted that OpenAI’s confidential filing on June 8 and the NYT’s delay story lowered the probability of a 2026 IPO, causing the August‑31 market price to tumble from double‑digit levels to near‑zero.
OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027, targets $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%49%
Business‑standard cited the same NYT story, adding that CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company was targeting a 2027 listing. The reiterated delay narrative caused another sharp drop in the December 31, 2026 outcome to 21 % (from a high of 70 %).
OpenAI limits rollout of GPT-5.6 model at U.S. government request
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%1%
At the request of the Trump administration, OpenAI restricted the release of its GPT-5.6 AI model to a small group of government-approved partners, highlighting regulatory challenges and adding uncertainty to the IPO timeline.
OpenAI CEO refuses to lower $1 trillion IPO valuation target
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%1%
Following reports of a potential IPO delay, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman rejected any reduction in the $1 trillion valuation target, signaling a firm stance on valuation despite market pressures. This stance contributed to further market declines in OpenAI IPO price probabilities.
Market reacts to OpenAI IPO delay, shares of related investors fall
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%27%
News of OpenAI's IPO delay to 2027 caused a sharp decline in market prices for near-term IPO outcomes and related investors like SoftBank, which saw a significant market cap drop. This reflected investor skepticism about the timing and valuation of OpenAI's public debut amid uncertain market conditions.
Market speculation solidifies delay of OpenAI IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%28%
Following reports of a delay, prediction markets and traders on platforms like Kalshi adjusted their expectations, with a majority now anticipating an IPO announcement by mid-2027 rather than in 2026, reflecting diminished confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Market reacts negatively to OpenAI IPO delay amid SpaceX IPO volatility
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%3%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO debut and OpenAI's reported IPO delay, tech stocks and OpenAI IPO market probabilities dropped sharply, reflecting investor caution and skepticism about a 2026 listing.
Market reacts to reports of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027
September 30, 2026 drops to 5%11%
Reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 caused tech stocks to slide and prediction markets to lower odds for a 2026 IPO. Despite the delay, OpenAI retains the option to go public sooner if conditions improve, but current market sentiment reflects caution and skepticism about a 2026 listing.
Market speculation shifts to early 2027 IPO announcement for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%31%
Speculators and prediction markets adjusted to a high likelihood that OpenAI's IPO announcement would occur by June 2027, with only about one-in-three odds for a 2026 IPO. This reflected growing market consensus on a delay beyond 2026, influenced by cautious investor sentiment and lack of a public IPO announcement.
Reports emerge OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Multiple reports indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 due to volatile public markets and the underwhelming SpaceX IPO debut. This news caused sharp declines in market prices for near-term IPO dates like July 31 and August 31, reflecting increased skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying IPO until 2027
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%33%
Following SpaceX's rocky IPO debut and broader tech market volatility, reports indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027, causing a sharp decline in market prices for all 2026 IPO date options.
OpenAI executives lean toward delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Following SpaceX's underwhelming IPO debut and broader tech market slumps, OpenAI executives reportedly shifted to favor delaying their IPO until 2027. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for near-term IPO dates, especially July 31 and August 31, 2026, and a decline in the September 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
Following SpaceX's turbulent IPO debut and a broader tech market slump, OpenAI's advisers cautioned that retail investor enthusiasm might be insufficient for a 2026 IPO. OpenAI began leaning toward delaying its public offering to 2027, causing a sharp drop in market prices for earlier IPO dates like July 31 and August 31, 2026.
Reports emerge OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%33%
Following SpaceX's IPO underperformance and market volatility, reports indicated OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar favors delaying the IPO to 2027, causing a significant drop in market confidence for all 2026 IPO outcomes, especially near-term dates.
Reports indicate OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027, shifting market expectations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%52%
News emerged that OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO until 2027, causing a sharp decline in the probability of a 2026 IPO across all near-term outcomes, reflecting increased market skepticism.
OpenAI executives consider delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Following the largest-ever IPO by SpaceX and its subsequent stock volatility, OpenAI's advisers cautioned that retail investor enthusiasm might be limited. This led to internal debates and reports that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for near-term IPO dates.
Reports indicate OpenAI leaning toward delaying IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%30%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 to preserve valuation and market enthusiasm, causing a sharp decline in near-term IPO probabilities across all dates.
OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%27%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO and broader tech market slumps, OpenAI's leadership began leaning toward postponing its IPO to 2027 to secure a $1 trillion valuation and avoid a weak market reception. CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about financial readiness and cash burn, intensifying internal debate.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
Following SpaceX's large but volatile IPO in June 2026, OpenAI's advisers cautioned about retail investor enthusiasm, leading the company to consider postponing its IPO to 2027, causing sharp price declines for earlier IPO date outcomes.
Trump administration asks OpenAI to limit next model release
September 30, 2026 drops to 5%6%
Axios reported the Trump administration asked OpenAI to limit the rollout of its next model (GPT‑5.6). The request signaled possible regulatory hurdles, contributing to a further slump in the September 30, 2026 outcome (down to 5 %).
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 amid market concerns
Reports on June 25, 2026 indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and investor appetite, causing a significant drop in the perceived likelihood of a 2026 IPO across all outcome dates.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until next year after SpaceX debut
September 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was leaning toward holding off its IPO until 2027 after SpaceX’s volatile debut. The story triggered a dramatic fall in all near‑term outcomes (July 31, August 31, September 30) while the December outcome stayed relatively high due to its later horizon.
Wall Street Journal says OpenAI plans IPO by end of 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 13%8%
The New York Times reported that WSJ sources said OpenAI now expects to go public by the end of 2026, a slight postponement from earlier expectations. The news gave a modest rebound to the September‑2026 outcome but did not restore confidence for the July‑2026 date.
OpenAI and Broadcom unveil LLM-optimized inference chip
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%25%
OpenAI partnered with Broadcom to launch a large language model-optimized inference chip, demonstrating continued innovation and investment in AI infrastructure. This development supported market confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI may push IPO to 2027, NYT reports
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI’s leadership was leaning toward postponing its IPO until 2027, citing concerns after SpaceX’s record‑breaking debut. The story sharply lowered market confidence in a 2026 listing, dragging the July 31, 2026 outcome down to 1 % (from a high of 26 %).
Reports emerge OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 amid valuation concerns
December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%32%
Multiple reports indicated that OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO to 2027 to meet its $1 trillion valuation target, citing market volatility and the rocky debut of SpaceX. This news caused a sharp decline in market prices across all OpenAI IPO date outcomes, reflecting reduced confidence in a 2026 listing.
OpenAI Leans Toward Delaying IPO Until 2027 After SpaceX Debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%31%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is considering delaying its public debut to 2027 due to volatile tech markets and the rocky performance of SpaceX's IPO, causing 2026 contract prices to plunge.
New York Times reports OpenAI CFO favors IPO delay to 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%10%
A report revealed that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar is advocating for delaying the IPO to 2027 due to massive spending commitments and readiness concerns. This news caused a sharp decline in market confidence for 2026 IPO dates, with prices dropping significantly across outcomes.
OpenAI leans toward delaying its IPO until 2027
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%31%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is considering holding off its IPO until 2027 due to public tech market volatility and the post-listing performance of SpaceX, causing near-term odds to collapse.
OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027, NYT reports
August 31, 2026 plunges to 2%44%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI executives were considering postponing the IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s volatile debut. The story triggered a sharp decline in the July 31, August 31 and September 30 outcomes, pushing them into single‑digit territory.
Reports say OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%8%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 due to a crowded IPO pipeline and poor market reception of SpaceX's IPO, leading to sharp market price drops.
OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s rocky debut, NYT reports
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
A New York Times report, citing three insiders, said OpenAI was leaning toward pushing its IPO back to 2027 after SpaceX’s volatile debut and a softening tech market. The news caused a broad market sell‑off, pushing the “July 31, 2026” odds down to 1 % and dragging all later dates sharply lower.
OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s rocky debut, NYT reports
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was leaning toward postponing its IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s volatile debut. The story intensified negative sentiment, driving the market to its final drop to 0 % Yes by July 1 and anchoring the June 30 outcome.
OpenAI Q1 2026 revenue reported at $6 billion, fueling IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
OpenAI reported $6 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, a strong financial performance that briefly boosted optimism about the IPO prospects. This news caused a temporary spike in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome price before broader market caution resumed.
Reports emerge OpenAI considering delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%31%
Multiple reports indicated OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 due to market volatility and the poor reception of SpaceX's IPO. This news caused a sharp decline in market confidence for all 2026 IPO date options.
OpenAI and Broadcom unveil first AI chip, aiming deployment by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 55%2%
OpenAI and Broadcom revealed a new AI chip designed to meet OpenAI's insatiable compute demand, indicating ongoing infrastructure investment that supports long-term growth prospects ahead of the IPO.
WSJ: OpenAI still courting banks, funding round pending for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%53%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was still in informal talks with banks and needed a major pre‑IPO funding round, reinforcing uncertainty about a 2026 listing and contributing to a continued decline for all outcomes.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid competition and losses
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Despite filings, concerns about OpenAI's large financial losses, operational readiness, and competition from SpaceX and Anthropic led to sharp declines in market prices for near-term IPO dates, reflecting growing doubts about a 2026 IPO completion.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%11%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively impacted market sentiment for a 2026 IPO, causing a modest rise in probabilities for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
SpaceX acquires AI coding platform Cursor for $60 billion
SpaceX announced acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding platform, for $60 billion, expanding its AI capabilities. This move highlighted competitive pressures in AI and may have influenced OpenAI's IPO timing considerations due to increased market competition and investor focus on SpaceX's recent IPO.
SpaceX acquires AI coding platform Cursor for $60 billion
December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%23%
SpaceX completed a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, a leading AI coding platform, strengthening its AI capabilities and market position. This move by SpaceX, also preparing for an IPO, added competitive pressure on OpenAI and may have contributed to market skepticism about OpenAI's IPO timing.
OpenAI reports $3.7 billion cash burn in Q1 2026 amid IPO preparations
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports revealed OpenAI's significant cash burn in early 2026, highlighting operational challenges and raising concerns about profitability. This contributed to market skepticism about an imminent IPO, depressing prices for earlier IPO date outcomes.
OpenAI reports $21 billion operating loss in Q1 2026 amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 56%20%
Financial disclosures in mid-June 2026 revealed OpenAI's massive operating losses, raising concerns about profitability and dampening enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO, contributing to a sharp decline in market prices.
OpenAI reports $3.7 billion Q1 2026 loss on $5.7 billion revenue
December 31, 2026 jumps to 58%8%
Financial disclosures revealed OpenAI's high cash burn and losses, raising investor concerns about profitability and sustainability, which pressured market prices for earlier IPO dates.
SpaceX announces $60 billion acquisition of Cursor AI platform
SpaceX announced its acquisition of Cursor, a leading AI coding platform, for $60 billion, signaling intensified competition in AI and potential market distractions. This event contributed to a sharp decline in OpenAI IPO probabilities across all near-term outcomes as investors reassessed market dynamics.
OpenAI states IPO timing undecided, may delay public debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%22%
OpenAI announced it had not decided on IPO timing and might delay going public, citing benefits of remaining private longer, causing market uncertainty and price declines.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes strategic flexibility on IPO timing
December 31, 2026 drops to 57%13%
Sam Altman publicly stated that while OpenAI has filed confidentially, the company has not decided on the IPO timing and values remaining private for operational flexibility. This tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO, contributing to mixed price movements in late June 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal uncertainty
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%8%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a potential legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal helped stabilize market sentiment temporarily, though it did not reverse the overall downward trend in IPO timing odds.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
August 31, 2026 dips to 3%2%
A Wall Street Journal story noted that Anthropic’s confidential filing earlier in June increased competitive pressure, causing a modest dip in the August 31 2026 outcome as investors feared OpenAI might be pushed later than Q4 2026 (price fell from 5 % to 3 %).
OpenAI CFO signals concerns about IPO readiness and cash burn
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO expressed concerns about the company's readiness to meet public reporting standards and the high cash burn rate, suggesting a possible delay of the IPO into 2027. This caused increased skepticism about near-term IPO dates and contributed to price declines for earlier outcomes.
OpenAI launches Partner Network with $150M investment to scale AI deployment
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%9%
OpenAI announced a $150 million investment to build a partner ecosystem and train 300,000 certified consultants by end of 2026, signaling operational scaling and supporting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO despite regulatory challenges.
Market optimism rebounds on positive legal ruling and IPO progress
December 31, 2026 jumps to 49%7%
Following a favorable legal ruling for OpenAI and continued IPO preparations, market confidence increased for a late 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 outcome, causing a price rebound.
OpenAI under investigation by U.S. state attorneys general
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%45%
Bloomberg reported a coalition of state attorneys general opened a regulatory investigation into OpenAI’s safety and consumer‑protection practices. The news heightened perceived risk, further eroding confidence in a near‑term IPO and pushing the September 30, 2026 outcome down to 5 % (from 50 %).
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%26%
Sam Altman published a post emphasizing AI's transformative potential and the company's strategic considerations, reinforcing that while IPO preparations are underway, the timing remains flexible, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
SpaceX completes record-breaking IPO, raising over $85 billion
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%25%
SpaceX, Elon Musk's company and OpenAI's competitor, completed the largest IPO in history, raising over $85 billion and reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion. The IPO's initial success followed by a sharp stock decline caused market caution about mega tech IPOs, impacting OpenAI's IPO sentiment.
Coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
A multistate investigation was launched into OpenAI's practices, including data handling and user safety, introducing significant regulatory risk that negatively impacted near-term IPO expectations and investor confidence.
SpaceX IPO launch intensifies competition among major tech IPOs
December 31, 2026 rises to 46%2%
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, reaching a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion, heightening competition for investor capital and indirectly impacting expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and market sentiment.
SpaceX completes record-breaking IPO, raising $75 billion at $1.77 trillion valuation
SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026, was the largest ever, raising over $85 billion and reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion on debut. However, its stock price declined sharply soon after, causing concern among investors and advisors about the enthusiasm for mega tech IPOs, including OpenAI's.
SpaceX IPO priced, becoming largest in history and shifting market focus
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%11%
SpaceX completed its IPO with a valuation near $1.75 trillion, drawing significant investor attention and setting a high bar for tech IPOs. This event intensified competition for capital and contributed to market skepticism about OpenAI's ability to IPO earlier in 2026, depressing earlier date outcomes further.
SpaceX completes $1.7 trillion IPO, shares tumble after initial pop
August 31, 2026 plunges to 2%44%
SpaceX’s record‑size IPO on June 12 caused heightened market volatility for AI‑related listings. The sharp swing in broader tech sentiment contributed to a secondary decline in the “August 31, 2026” odds, moving them from mid‑teens down to the low single‑digit range.
Reports emerge OpenAI considering delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX debut
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Following SpaceX's IPO in June 2026 and its volatile market debut, reports surfaced that OpenAI executives were leaning toward delaying their IPO until 2027 due to cautious investor sentiment and market conditions. This caused a collapse in prices for near-term IPO dates like July 31 and August 31, 2026, reflecting growing skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
SpaceX completes IPO with $1.77 trillion valuation, causing market caution
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
SpaceX's IPO debut raised over $85 billion but had a rocky market reception, causing OpenAI's advisers to caution about retail investor enthusiasm for OpenAI's own IPO. This development contributed to growing skepticism about a 2026 IPO and price declines for near-term outcomes.
Coalition of state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%25%
A broad legal investigation into OpenAI by multiple state attorneys general heightened regulatory risks and uncertainty around the company's IPO prospects, negatively impacting market confidence.
SpaceX IPO filing adds pressure on OpenAI's public debut timeline
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%5%
SpaceX's IPO filing on June 12, 2026, intensified market focus on OpenAI's IPO timing, as both companies are major AI sector players. This event contributed to volatility in OpenAI IPO market prices, with some traders adjusting expectations for later IPO dates due to competitive and market dynamics.
SpaceX IPO debuts with record valuation, impacting AI IPO market sentiment
December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%24%
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, achieving a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion. The IPO's initial rally and subsequent volatility caused OpenAI's advisors to become cautious, influencing OpenAI's IPO timing considerations and reducing near-term IPO probabilities.
SpaceX launches IPO, intensifying tech IPO market competition
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%3%
SpaceX's IPO launch in June 2026 heightened competition among major tech IPOs, indirectly impacting OpenAI's market sentiment and IPO timing expectations.
State Attorneys General Launch Sweeping Investigation Into OpenAI
September 30, 2026 plunges to 11%19%
A coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opened an investigation into OpenAI, adding legal hurdles for the IPO-bound company and contributing to a decline in near-term IPO confidence.
SpaceX launches IPO, trading begins on Nasdaq
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%27%
SpaceX's IPO, the largest ever, debuted with a high valuation but experienced a rocky market reception. This event caused caution among investors regarding mega tech IPOs, negatively impacting OpenAI's IPO market sentiment.
SpaceX IPO debuts with $1.77 trillion valuation, impacting AI IPO sentiment
August 31, 2026 plunges to 5%41%
SpaceX's massive IPO on June 12, 2026, raised over $85 billion and reached a $1.77 trillion valuation, causing OpenAI's advisers to caution about retail investor enthusiasm for OpenAI's IPO, contributing to market skepticism about a 2026 listing.
SpaceX files confidential IPO paperwork
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%3%
SpaceX’s IPO filing on June 12 added pressure on OpenAI to signal its own timeline. The news helped sustain market optimism for a Q4‑2026 OpenAI IPO, keeping the December‑31‑2026 probability elevated.
SpaceX IPO debuts with record valuation but stock price declines sharply
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, raising over $85 billion and reaching a $1.77 trillion valuation on debut. However, its stock price declined sharply soon after, causing concern among investors about mega tech IPO enthusiasm, negatively impacting OpenAI IPO sentiment.
SpaceX IPO launches on Nasdaq, setting record valuation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%27%
SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq, marking the largest IPO in history and intensifying investor focus on AI and tech IPOs, indirectly affecting OpenAI's market sentiment and IPO timing expectations.
SpaceX completes IPO, increasing market focus on AI tech listings
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%31%
SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12, 2026, drawing investor attention to AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's. This event intensified competition and market scrutiny, influencing OpenAI's IPO timing expectations and market pricing.
OpenAI announces acquisition of cloud platform Ona to support AI agents
OpenAI agreed to acquire Ona, a cloud services startup, to enhance its AI coding assistant Codex. This strategic move signaled operational scaling but did not directly affect IPO timing, contributing to mixed market sentiment.
Market skepticism grows over near-term OpenAI IPO dates
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Market prices dropped sharply for near-term IPO dates like July 31 and August 31, reflecting growing skepticism about OpenAI completing an IPO before late 2026 due to lack of public confirmation and competitive pressures.
OpenAI CFO says IPO filing is ‘good hygiene’ but declines timeline comment
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%4%
CNBC quoted CFO Sarah Friar saying that filing an S‑1 is “good hygiene” but she would not comment on a specific timeline, stoking uncertainty about when the IPO would happen. The market reacted with a sharp slide for the June 30 2026 outcome (price fell from 4 % to 0 %).
OpenAI Acquires Cloud Infrastructure Startup Ona to Support Codex
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%20%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Ona to bring secure cloud execution and orchestration technology to its Codex ecosystem. This M&A activity highlighted OpenAI's aggressive expansion but also underscored its massive operational spending ahead of a potential IPO.
OpenAI to acquire Ona, boosting Codex with secure cloud environments
September 30, 2026 jumps to 12%7%
OpenAI announced it would acquire startup Ona to give its Codex coding assistant longer‑running cloud execution capabilities. The acquisition was seen as a sign of continued scaling and produced a brief rebound in the “September 30, 2026” odds, which rose from 5 % back toward double‑digits before sliding again.
OpenAI announces acquisition of Ona to enhance AI coding assistant
September 30, 2026 rises to 33%3%
OpenAI announced it would acquire Ona, a startup providing cloud environments for AI agents, to improve its AI coding assistant Codex. This strategic move was seen as strengthening product offerings ahead of the IPO, positively impacting the September 30, 2026 IPO option.
OpenAI announces acquisition of Ona to enhance AI coding assistant Codex
December 31, 2026 jumps to 56%8%
OpenAI announced plans to acquire Ona, a startup providing secure cloud execution technology, to expand its AI coding assistant Codex. This strategic acquisition signaled ongoing operational scaling and enterprise focus ahead of the IPO, providing a modest boost to market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI to acquire cloud platform Ona to bolster Codex
September 30, 2026 jumps to 12%7%
OpenAI announced it would acquire Ona, a secure‑cloud platform for its Codex AI coding assistant. The strategic acquisition helped stabilize sentiment and produced a modest rebound in the September 30 odds, which briefly rose before sliding again.
OpenAI Announces Acquisition of Cloud Startup Ona
September 30, 2026 jumps to 24%14%
OpenAI announced its acquisition of Ona to bring secure cloud execution to its Codex ecosystem, signaling continued operational scaling ahead of its public debut. This acquisition helped stabilize market sentiment and led to a minor recovery in the September 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI projects $25 billion revenue and $27 billion cash burn in IPO filing
December 31, 2026 rises to 49%1%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing revealed rapid revenue growth but also significant projected losses, highlighting the financial challenges ahead and influencing investor caution about IPO timing.
Market reacts sharply to SEC review concerns and financial losses
August 31, 2026 dips to 3%4%
Concerns about OpenAI's $14 billion projected losses in 2026 and potential SEC review delays caused a sharp drop in market prices for near-term IPO outcomes, reflecting increased skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
CEO Sam Altman signals IPO likely within next year, tempering immediate expectations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%24%
Sam Altman told employees that OpenAI could go public within a year, which markets interpreted as a potential delay beyond 2026, causing a sharp repricing and lowering probabilities for all 2026 IPO outcomes as investors adjusted to a possible 2027 timeline.
Sam Altman tempers IPO timeline, says likely within next year
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%33%
Altman told employees the IPO would likely occur within the next year, implying a possible delay into 2027. This statement caused a sharp market repricing, reducing probabilities for a 2026 IPO and shifting expectations toward 2027.
Sam Altman tempers IPO timeline, pushing expectations into 2027
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%45%
CEO Sam Altman told staff to expect an IPO "within the next year," interpreted by markets as a potential delay into 2027, contradicting earlier aggressive Q4 2026 timelines. This caused a sharp drop in probabilities for all 2026 IPO outcomes.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, increasing competition for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%10%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing intensified competitive pressure on OpenAI, leading to market uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation, reflected in fluctuating market prices.
Sam Altman Tells Employees OpenAI Expects to Go Public Within the Next Year
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%20%
CEO Sam Altman told staff that OpenAI expects to go public within the next year, but noted that recursive self-improvement advances could delay the timeline. This statement tempered expectations for an immediate IPO, causing the September 30, 2026 outcome to drop sharply.
SpaceX IPO oversubscribed, raising market concerns
Reports that the upcoming SpaceX IPO was more than four times oversubscribed raised concerns about market capacity for large tech IPOs, including OpenAI. This led to investor caution and selling pressure, contributing to declines in OpenAI IPO probabilities, especially for earlier dates.
SpaceX IPO oversubscribed more than four times, raising market concerns
December 31, 2026 plunges to 54%19%
The SpaceX IPO was reported to be more than four times oversubscribed, causing some investors to sell shares in other tech companies to make room. This market dynamic likely pressured OpenAI IPO market prices downward as investors anticipated multiple large tech IPOs in 2026.
SpaceX files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO market competition
December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%24%
SpaceX filed its public S-1 prospectus on June 10, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq debut with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This intensified competition for investor capital among AI and tech IPOs, influencing market expectations and causing volatility in OpenAI IPO market prices, particularly affecting near-term IPO date probabilities.
CEO Sam Altman signals IPO within next year, boosting late 2026 IPO confidence
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced plans for an IPO within the next year, supporting market confidence in a December 31, 2026 IPO and causing a rise in the probability for that outcome.
OpenAI announces acquisition of Ona to enhance Codex ecosystem
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%2%
OpenAI announced it would acquire Ona, a startup providing secure cloud execution technology, signaling continued operational scaling ahead of its public debut. This acquisition indicated OpenAI's growth strategy and strengthened investor confidence in the company's long-term prospects ahead of the IPO.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI by dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing, timing undecided
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%25%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential S-1 filing, acknowledging the news was expected to leak and emphasizing that the IPO timing remains undecided. This tempered market expectations, supporting a later 2026 IPO date and causing declines in earlier date probabilities.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively influenced market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI IPO anticipation grows amid Wall Street scrutiny
December 31, 2026 drops to 71%7%
Following the confidential filing, media reports on June 9, 2026, highlighted the upcoming IPO and the scrutiny OpenAI will face from Wall Street, emphasizing the company's rapid growth and losses. This coverage maintained high market interest and reinforced expectations for a 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 date.
OpenAI joins AI IPO pipeline worth $3.6 trillion with confidential filing
September 30, 2026 rises to 72%2%
Bloomberg reported OpenAI's confidential IPO filing alongside other AI giants, reinforcing market expectations for a fall IPO and driving prices higher temporarily.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing, emphasizes timing uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 71%7%
OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential IPO filing on June 9, 2026, acknowledging the filing was expected to leak and reiterating that the timing of the public offering was undecided. This announcement reinforced market expectations of a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI officially files confidential S-1 prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 76%4%
OpenAI officially confirmed it submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the SEC for its IPO. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
Reuters confirms OpenAI’s confidential S‑1 filing
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%18%
OpenAI’s confidential S‑1 filing was confirmed by Reuters on June 8, cementing the company’s progress toward an IPO and providing a concrete regulatory milestone that helped lift the December‑31 probability after a period of decline.
OpenAI files confidential draft registration statement for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 59%4%
OpenAI officially filed a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public. The company emphasized that the timing remains fluid, but this filing increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, particularly for December 31, 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
September 30, 2026 surges to 75%54%
OpenAI officially filed confidentially for its IPO, signaling a strong intent to go public possibly as early as September, which temporarily boosted market confidence.
OpenAI submits confidential draft S-1 filing to SEC
September 30, 2026 rises to 71%1%
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, a formal step toward going public. This filing reinforced the market's expectation of an IPO in the near term, supporting the September 30, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%1%
OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC, officially moving toward a public offering with a target valuation near $1 trillion and a potential listing window from September to November 2026. This was the key catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward a higher implied probability of an IPO by year-end, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI files for IPO following Anthropic as AI giants head to public markets
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%2%
OpenAI filed to offer its stock on public markets on June 8, 2026, just a week after Anthropic's filing and days before SpaceX's expected debut. The move confirmed expectations of a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026, market outcome while maintaining uncertainty about exact timing.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO with SEC, publicly acknowledges filing
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%4%
OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential IPO filing, acknowledging the filing was expected to leak and reiterating that the timing of the public offering was undecided. This reinforced market expectations of a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 with SEC
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%11%
OpenAI disclosed that it had submitted a confidential S‑1 to the SEC, confirming the start of the formal IPO process but stating the timing was still undecided. The announcement reinforced expectations of a late‑2026 listing and pushed the December‑31, 2026 probability back up while dragging near‑term June‑30 odds lower.
OpenAI CFO confirms confidential S-1 filing but timing undecided
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirmed the confidential S-1 filing but stated the company had not decided on the IPO timing, tempering expectations for a near-term IPO and contributing to price volatility in earlier IPO date contracts.
OpenAI files confidential IPO registration with SEC amid competitive filings
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, joining rival Anthropic in the race to go public. The filing maintained market uncertainty about exact timing but confirmed serious IPO preparations for late 2026.
OpenAI Officially Announces Confidential S-1 IPO Filing with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 75%4%
OpenAI officially announced it submitted a confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI officially submits confidential S-1 filing to the SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%21%
OpenAI confirmed it submitted its confidential Form S-1 to the SEC, following rival Anthropic's filing, which solidified expectations of a late 2026 public listing.
OpenAI officially announces confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%25%
OpenAI publicly confirmed it had confidentially filed for an IPO, reiterating that timing was undecided and could be delayed, which reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO but maintained uncertainty about exact timing.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing amid AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%36%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing, confirming the submission of Form S-1 to the SEC. This announcement came shortly after Anthropic's filing and intensified market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, causing a surge in the December 31, 2026 outcome price to around 70%.
OpenAI files confidential IPO, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in 2026 IPO race
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%10%
OpenAI submitted its confidential IPO filing on June 8, 2026, joining rival Anthropic and SpaceX in a competitive race to go public in late 2026, increasing market focus on a potential Q4 IPO and supporting higher probabilities for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI files for IPO amid intensifying AI investment race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%25%
OpenAI filed to offer its stock on public markets shortly after rival Anthropic, signaling a competitive race to go public and increasing market focus on a potential late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Confirms Submission of Confidential S-1 Draft to SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%26%
OpenAI officially announced it submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC, solidifying late-2026 odds while crushing near-term contracts.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing with SEC, no set timeline
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%23%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC but stated no IPO timeline was set, indicating the company might remain private longer. This tempered market expectations and introduced caution about the IPO timing within 2026.
OpenAI Confirms Confidential S-1 Filing with the SEC
December 31, 2026 jumps to 78%5%
OpenAI officially confirmed it had submitted its confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, pushing the December 31, 2026 option to its peak probability of 78%.
OpenAI announces confidential S-1 filing but signals IPO may be delayed
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential S-1 filing on June 8, but CEO Sam Altman indicated the IPO might not happen soon, dampening market enthusiasm for near-term IPO dates and causing prices for June 30, 2026, and earlier dates to fall further.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 35%11%
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public with a target valuation around $1 trillion. The filing allowed OpenAI to work privately with regulators while keeping the public timeline flexible.
OpenAI confirms June 8 confidential S‑1 filing, says timing undecided
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
OpenAI publicly confirmed that it had submitted a confidential draft S‑1 on June 8 but said the timing was undecided and “it may be a while.” The announcement reinforced later‑2026 expectations while simultaneously dampening near‑term dates, causing the “June 30, 2026” odds to fall to 0 % and the “December 31, 2026” odds to stay high.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reveals IPO could come within a year
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%13%
Sam Altman told employees that OpenAI could go public within a year after submitting a confidential IPO filing, emphasizing flexibility in timing. This statement supported market confidence in a 2026 or early 2027 IPO.
OpenAI IPO filing follows legal victory over Elon Musk lawsuit
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%4%
A U.S. jury ruled against Elon Musk in his lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the way for the IPO filing announced the same day, boosting market confidence in OpenAI's public offering prospects.
OpenAI publicly files for IPO, setting stage for highly anticipated market debut
December 31, 2026 rises to 76%1%
OpenAI publicly filed for its IPO on June 8, 2026, confirming plans for a late 2026 public offering and intensifying market focus on the company's valuation and financials, which briefly supported IPO optimism.
OpenAI officially confirms confidential S-1 filing with the SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%27%
OpenAI officially announced that it submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential S‑1 filing
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%17%
OpenAI publicly disclosed that it had confidentially submitted a draft S‑1 registration statement to the SEC. The announcement confirmed the filing and cemented expectations of a Q4 2026 listing, providing a modest lift to the December outcome while leaving earlier dates depressed.
OpenAI confidentially submits draft S-1 registration statement to SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%1%
OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC, marking a formal step toward an IPO and reinforcing expectations for a late 2026 public debut, which initially supported market prices.
OpenAI confirms confidential S‑1 filing with the SEC on June 8
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%6%
OpenAI publicly confirmed it had submitted a confidential S‑1 to the SEC on June 8. The announcement coincided with a steep decline in market confidence as investors digested the slow‑moving regulatory process, pulling the Yes probability down to the low‑single‑digit range by late June.
OpenAI files for US IPO targeting up to $1 trillion valuation, IPO as early as September
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
OpenAI filed for a US IPO with a target valuation up to $1 trillion and a potential IPO window starting in September 2026. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, boosting December 31, 2026 prices and depressing earlier expiration outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%3%
OpenAI officially confirmed it had confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, a major milestone in its IPO process, but stated no IPO timeline was set, tempering expectations for an immediate public offering.
OpenAI IPO filing highlights massive revenue and cash burn projections
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
The confidential IPO filing revealed OpenAI's projected 2026 revenue exceeding $25 billion but with a $27 billion cash burn, raising concerns about profitability and influencing market skepticism on earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC, targets late 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, targeting a public debut in late 2026 with a valuation around $1 trillion. This announcement caused a significant price surge for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting increased market confidence.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork following Anthropic
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO shortly after its rival Anthropic, signaling a competitive race among AI companies to go public. The filing indicated a potential valuation over $850 billion and a public debut possibly as early as September 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files S‑1 prospectus with SEC
August 31, 2026 plunges to 1%45%
OpenAI confidentially filed an S‑1 with the SEC, confirming a formal IPO process had begun. While the filing initially buoyed the market, the lack of a disclosed timeline soon led traders to discount early‑date outcomes, contributing to the slide in the August 31, 2026 price to 1 % (from 46 %).
Jury dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI, clearing legal hurdle for IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 78%5%
A jury ruled against Elon Musk's lawsuit claiming OpenAI illegally converted from non-profit to for-profit, removing a major legal overhang and boosting confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI IPO announcement intensifies AI investment race alongside Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI's IPO filing announcement came days after Anthropic's and just before SpaceX's expected IPO, highlighting a competitive cluster of mega-IPOs in AI and tech, which affected market pricing dynamics across all expiration dates.
Reuters: OpenAI confidentially files for US IPO on June 8
September 30, 2026 plunges to 30%20%
Reuters confirmed OpenAI had confidentially filed for a US IPO on June 8. The filing momentarily revived optimism for the September‑30 outcome, lifting its price before the subsequent delay narrative crushed it again.
Guardian: OpenAI files IPO amid lawsuit loss over nonprofit conversion
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%25%
The Guardian reported that OpenAI’s IPO filing came shortly after a lawsuit loss over its nonprofit‑to‑for‑profit conversion, adding legal risk concerns that further depressed market sentiment across all dates.
OpenAI publicly confirms its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%26%
OpenAI officially announced that it had submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement, while cautioning that the final timing of the listing remains undecided.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing, targets September debut
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential S-1 filing on June 8, 2026, acknowledging the filing was expected to leak and reiterating that the timing of the public offering was undecided. This announcement reinforced market expectations of a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC, marking a formal step toward an IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading. The filing confirmed plans for a potential public debut in late 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a September or Q4 IPO.
OpenAI Confidentially Files for US Initial Public Offering
December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%24%
OpenAI officially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, cementing expectations of a massive public debut by the end of 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files updated S-1 paperwork amid market uncertainty
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%24%
OpenAI filed updated confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC on June 8, 2026, but growing concerns about profitability and market conditions began to weigh on investor sentiment, leading to price declines in IPO market contracts.
OpenAI submits confidential draft S-1 to SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft S-1 filing to the SEC, reaffirming its IPO plans and maintaining market interest in a late 2026 public offering, particularly December 31, 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO amid AI sector race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%33%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking a formal step toward going public. The filing increased market activity but also introduced uncertainty about exact timing, as OpenAI stated it had not decided on timing yet.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 with the SEC
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 with the SEC, confirming the IPO process had officially begun. The filing triggered a brief rally in the July‑31 and August‑31 probabilities before the market re‑evaluated the timing uncertainty.
OpenAI submits confidential S-1 filing to SEC amid AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%26%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming its IPO plans and intensifying the competition with Anthropic and SpaceX. This filing reinforced expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO but also highlighted the challenges ahead, causing market fluctuations.
FutureSearch: OpenAI IPO unlikely in 2026 despite S‑1 filing
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%7%
FutureSearch’s forecast highlighted that the confidential S‑1 filing did not set a date and projected a low probability of a 2026 IPO, nudging the market down to near‑zero for the June‑30 outcome.
OpenAI Officially Confirms Confidential S-1 IPO Filing with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 11%27%
OpenAI officially announced it submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 with SEC, timing undecided
December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%29%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC but stated that the timing of the IPO was undecided and 'it may be a while.' This tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO and caused volatility in market prices.
OpenAI officially announces confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
December 31, 2026 dips to 70%3%
OpenAI confirmed it submitted a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward its public market debut.
OpenAI files confidential draft S-1 with SEC targeting September 2026 IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 11%26%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. This reinforced expectations for a late 2026 IPO but market skepticism about timing and profitability persisted.
OpenAI Publicly Confirms Confidential S-1 Submission to the SEC
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
OpenAI officially announced its confidential IPO filing, confirming active preparations but stating that the exact timing remains undecided. This announcement reinforced expectations of a late 2026 IPO, keeping the December 31, 2026 outcome high while earlier dates like June 30 fell to zero.
OpenAI confidentially files to go public, confirming IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%4%
OpenAI confidentially filed to go public on June 8, reinforcing market expectations for an IPO in 2026. This official step increased speculation and trading activity around the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI files confidential IPO with SEC targeting $730-$850 billion valuation
September 30, 2026 rises to 50%4%
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with an estimated valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, positioning itself as a leading AI company going public. This filing intensified market interest and speculation about a September or later 2026 IPO date.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential S-1 filing for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%17%
OpenAI confirmed it submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, officially starting the IPO process but emphasizing no fixed timing. This announcement increased market optimism for a 2026 IPO, especially for later dates like December 31, 2026.
OpenAI officially confirms confidential IPO filing with the SEC
December 31, 2026 dips to 71%1%
OpenAI publicly announced that it had submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC, cementing expectations of a massive public debut by the end of 2026.
OpenAI files confidential IPO papers, eyes September listing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%10%
OpenAI confirmed confidential IPO filing with SEC, targeting a September 2026 public debut at an $850B+ valuation. The filing intensified market focus on a late 2026 IPO, though internal debates about readiness persisted.
OpenAI confidentially submits draft S-1 IPO filing to SEC
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, a formal step toward going public. This confirmed the company's IPO intentions and supported market expectations for a September 2026 debut, temporarily stabilizing prices.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO due to reporting readiness
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar prefers delaying the IPO to 2027 to ensure public company reporting readiness, casting doubt on a 2026 IPO and contributing to very low market prices for June 30 and July 31, 2026 IPO dates.
OpenAI targets September 2026 public debut amid SEC review process
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%3%
OpenAI is targeting a September 2026 IPO public debut, with the S-1 filing remaining confidential until shortly before the roadshow. Analysts note the possibility of a delay into early 2027 depending on SEC feedback, reflecting cautious market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI mulls delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s rocky debut
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
Yahoo reported that OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s post‑IPO slump, raising doubts about a 2026 listing. The news drove a steep drop across the near‑term dates, especially July 31 2026 (price fell from 26 % to 1 %).
No public S‑1 or IPO date confirmed for OpenAI as of early June
July 31, 2026 drops to 1%12%
A Decoding the Future article confirmed that, as of June 2, 2026, OpenAI had not published any public S‑1, ticker or filing date, confirming the absence of a formal IPO schedule and causing a sharp drop in confidence for the near‑term outcomes.
No public OpenAI S-1 filing or official IPO date as of early June 2026
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%11%
Reports confirmed that OpenAI had not publicly filed an S-1 or announced an official IPO date by early June 2026, increasing market uncertainty and skepticism about a 2026 IPO, leading to sharp price declines for near-term IPO dates.
Market speculation grows on OpenAI IPO timing amid Anthropic filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%7%
Following Anthropic's IPO filing, market speculation increased about OpenAI's IPO timing, with traders adjusting expectations and prices reflecting uncertainty but continued confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
No public S-1 filing or official IPO date confirmed by OpenAI
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
As of early June 2026, OpenAI had not publicly filed an S-1 registration statement nor announced an official IPO date, creating growing skepticism about near-term IPO completion. This lack of public confirmation contributed to sharp declines in market prices for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 submission, timing undecided
December 31, 2026 plunges to 45%29%
OpenAI publicly acknowledged submitting a confidential S-1 filing but stated it had not decided on IPO timing, suggesting the listing could be delayed. This tempered market enthusiasm, causing some price volatility.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI
September 30, 2026 plunges to 14%24%
Anthropic, a key competitor to OpenAI, confidentially filed for a US IPO, raising its valuation above OpenAI's and intensifying the race to go public. This competitive pressure contributed to declining market confidence in OpenAI's IPO by earlier dates in 2026.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus
Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying the competitive IPO race with OpenAI and impacting market expectations about the timing and valuation of both companies' public offerings.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
AI giant Anthropic confidentially filed for its own U.S. IPO, edging ahead of OpenAI in the race to go public and intensifying market expectations for late 2026 listings.
Anthropic files confidentially for a U.S. IPO
OpenAI's chief rival Anthropic filed confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC, intensifying competition for growth-equity capital and putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 drops to 70%6%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main rival, filed its confidential IPO paperwork on June 1, 2026, signaling a competitive race among AI companies to go public. This increased pressure on OpenAI to proceed with its IPO plans.
Anthropic confidentially files U.S. IPO paperwork
August 31, 2026 plunges to 7%39%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing was reported on June 1. The rival’s move intensified competition and caused a further drop in confidence for the August 31 and September 30 outcomes, as traders reassessed OpenAI’s timing advantage.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, escalating AI IPO competition
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing on June 1 increased pressure on OpenAI, contributing to further declines in market confidence for near-term OpenAI IPO dates such as July 31 and August 31, 2026.
Anthropic files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%1%
Anthropic, OpenAI's chief rival, filed for a public stock offering, increasing pressure and market speculation on OpenAI's IPO timing. This competitive move contributed to market volatility and skepticism about near-term IPO dates for OpenAI.
Anthropic confidentially files U.S. IPO, intensifying AI race
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing on June 1 heightened competitive pressure on OpenAI. Market commentary linked the filing to a modest pull‑back on the “July 31, 2026” and “August 31, 2026” odds, which fell sharply in the following days.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
September 30, 2026 drops to 42%8%
Anthropic, a major AI competitor, filed confidentially for an IPO on June 1, 2026, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI and influencing market sentiment about the timing and valuation of OpenAI's IPO. This event contributed to volatility and reassessment of earlier IPO date probabilities.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
August 31, 2026 plunges to 5%41%
Anthropic, OpenAI's chief rival, confidentially filed for an IPO in early June 2026, increasing competitive pressure and market focus on a late 2026 IPO window. This contributed to a modest dip in the August 31, 2026 outcome as investors feared OpenAI might be pushed later than Q4 2026.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 55%15%
Anthropic filed confidentially for an IPO shortly before OpenAI, raising its valuation above OpenAI's and intensifying competition for investor capital. This pressured OpenAI to accelerate IPO preparations but also introduced uncertainty about timing, affecting market prices for earlier IPO dates.
Rival AI Giant Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%10%
Anthropic's confidential filing intensified the race to go public, putting competitive pressure on OpenAI's timeline and capital market demand.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for US IPO, Edging Ahead of OpenAI
September 30, 2026 dips to 41%2%
Rival AI giant Anthropic submitted its own confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying the race to go public and shifting trader sentiment regarding OpenAI's relative timeline.
Anthropic files confidentially for U.S. IPO, intensifying AI‑IPO race
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing on June 1, 2026, intensified the AI‑IPO race and shifted market focus to later 2026 dates for OpenAI, pulling probability away from the early‑June outcome and toward September‑December windows.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1, ahead of OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 48%15%
Anthropic filed its confidential S‑1 a week before OpenAI, intensifying the AI IPO race. The competitive pressure reinforced expectations for a late‑2026 OpenAI IPO, contributing to higher prices for the December‑31‑2026 outcome.
Rival Anthropic files confidential S‑1, raising competition concerns
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic’s own confidential filing on June 1 intensified competition and shifted market focus toward later‑year IPO windows, pulling the "July 31" and "August 31" outcomes down to single‑digit levels.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Anthropic filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI and highlighting the crowded AI IPO market expected in late 2026.
OpenAI launches $4 billion-backed Deployment Company and acquires Tomoro
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new subsidiary with $4 billion capital and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale enterprise AI deployment. This operational scaling boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, lifting the September 30, 2026 outcome price temporarily.
Rival Anthropic files confidentially for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Anthropic officially filed for its own IPO shortly after OpenAI's filing, intensifying the race for public capital among major AI firms.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, surpassing OpenAI in valuation
September 30, 2026 drops to 32%6%
Anthropic filed confidential IPO paperwork with a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $730 billion valuation. This escalated the competitive pressure on OpenAI and influenced market expectations for late 2026 IPOs.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI‑sector competition
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic, OpenAI’s chief rival, filed a confidential IPO registration. The news intensified competition for investor capital and spurred a sharp sell‑off in the July 31 and August 31 outcomes, driving those odds into single‑digit territory.
Rival Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%8%
Anthropic submitted its own confidential S-1 filing, intensifying the race to the public markets and putting pressure on OpenAI's listing timeline.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI's financial challenges ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
By late May 2026, analysts highlighted OpenAI's significant financial losses and a $207 billion funding gap through 2030, raising concerns about IPO timing and valuation. This analysis contributed to market volatility and skepticism about earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
September 30, 2026 jumps to 30%5%
Reports that OpenAI was in talks with Citigroup and JPMorgan about IPO financing signaled progress toward a year‑end listing, nudging the “September 30, 2026” odds upward from 25 % to 30 % by June 10.
Anthropic raises $65 billion, surpassing OpenAI valuation
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic raised $65 billion in funding at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI's valuation and intensifying competition in the AI IPO market. This development pressured OpenAI's IPO prospects and contributed to price declines for near-term IPO outcomes.
Anthropic raises $65 billion at $965 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Anthropic closed a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI's $852 billion valuation. This intensified competition in the AI IPO race and influenced market expectations for both companies' public listings.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately urges IPO delay to 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%44%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing massive compute spending commitments and the need to meet public company reporting standards. This internal conflict with CEO Sam Altman introduced market skepticism, causing a decline in near-term IPO probabilities, especially for June and July 2026 dates.
OpenAI CFO signals internal concerns about IPO readiness and timing
September 30, 2026 plunges to 30%20%
Reports indicated that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about the company's readiness for public reporting and the high cash burn rate, suggesting a possible delay of the IPO into 2027. This tempered market enthusiasm for earlier 2026 IPO dates, causing declines in those outcomes' prices.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company and acquires AI consulting firm Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company backed by $4 billion in capital and acquired UK-based AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale enterprise AI deployment capabilities. This move signaled operational scaling and readiness for a late 2026 IPO, supporting market confidence in December 31, 2026.
SpaceX publicly files IPO prospectus, heightening AI IPO market focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%2%
SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus publicly on May 25, 2026, increasing market attention on AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's. This event influenced timing expectations and competitive positioning, reinforcing the likelihood of a later 2026 IPO for OpenAI.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by federal jury
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, which positively influenced market sentiment for a successful IPO.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 78%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The news lifted the “December 31, 2026” probability from the mid‑70s to 78 % (peak on June 8) and kept the market bullish through early June.
SpaceX files public S-1 IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
SpaceX publicly filed its IPO prospectus, increasing market attention on AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's, which contributed to volatility and shifts in IPO timing expectations.
Market reacts to Anthropic's confidential IPO filing, intensifying AI IPO race
September 30, 2026 plunges to 29%21%
Anthropic filed confidentially for its own IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI and causing market volatility. This increased skepticism about earlier OpenAI IPO dates, contributing to declines in confidence for mid-2026 IPO outcomes.
Anthropic closes funding round at $900 billion valuation, intensifying AI IPO race
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
Anthropic's funding round at a $900 billion valuation heightened competition in the AI IPO space, impacting market sentiment and causing declines in prices for earlier IPO dates like August 31 and July 31, 2026, as investors reassessed OpenAI's timing and prospects.
SpaceX files for IPO, intensifying tech IPO competition
September 30, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
SpaceX's IPO filing in late May heightened competition among major tech IPOs, influencing investor appetite and adding pressure on OpenAI's IPO timing, affecting market pricing for September and December 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company to scale enterprise AI
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%42%
The launch of a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro demonstrated OpenAI's operational scaling and enterprise focus, positively influencing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI faces intensified competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini
August 31, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
Market reports highlighted Anthropic's rising market share and Google Gemini's growth, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI. This competition contributed to declining market confidence in earlier IPO dates like August and July 2026, reflected in price drops for those outcomes.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
OpenAI officially filed its confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC, targeting late 2026 listing
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft registration statement to the SEC. This formal step significantly boosted market confidence in a late-year IPO, causing the December 31, 2026 outcome to surge.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC
August 31, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
OpenAI submitted its confidential draft registration statement to the SEC, targeting a late 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files draft registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, confirming its intent to pursue an IPO likely in late 2026. This filing increased market confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO and pushed up probabilities for later 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI Confidentially Files S-1 IPO Prospectus with SEC
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI submitted its confidential draft registration statement to the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing. This solidified the late 2026 timeline and crushed the probabilities of earlier summer outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 with SEC for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 34%16%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a public listing targeted for Q4 2026. This filing confirmed the IPO plans and supported market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Files Confidential Draft Registration Statement with SEC
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
A leak of a draft S-1 filing suggested OpenAI was targeting a Q4 2026 listing, which pushed near-term July and August outcomes lower as investors adjusted to a later window.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%17%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO registration statement with the SEC, officially starting the IPO process. This confidential filing allowed OpenAI to prepare for a public offering potentially in Q4 2026, boosting market confidence in a late-year IPO.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC
August 31, 2026 drops to 6%8%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 filing, targeting a late 2026 public listing. This solidified the timeline for late 2026 and collapsed the odds for earlier summer dates.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%41%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC on May 22, 2026, marking the first formal step toward an IPO targeting Q4 2026. This filing confirmed market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and reinforced the December 31, 2026 outcome's price surge.
OpenAI files confidential draft registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
OpenAI officially filed a confidential draft registration statement with the SEC on May 22, 2026, formally beginning the IPO process and reinforcing market expectations for a 2026 public offering.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026 at a valuation between $730 billion and $1 trillion. This marked a significant step toward going public and increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing confirmed expectations of a late 2026 IPO and intensified market focus on the event, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026 and a valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion. This formal step reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the deal.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting Q4 2026 listing
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, signaling a strong intent to go public in late 2026 and causing a surge in market expectations for the IPO within the year.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, spurring rivalry with OpenAI
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Tech industry commentary noted that Anthropic had filed its own confidential IPO paperwork a week earlier, intensifying competition and briefly nudging the “September 30 2026” probability upward before the market refocused on OpenAI’s own filing.
OpenAI files confidential IPO draft registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
OpenAI submitted its confidential Form S-1 to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a potential public debut targeted for late 2026.
Leak suggests OpenAI’s draft S‑1 targeting Q4 2026
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
A leak of the draft S‑1 on May 22 suggested OpenAI was targeting a Q4 2026 listing. The rumor pushed market prices for the July‑31 and September‑30 outcomes lower as investors adjusted to a later possible IPO window.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 targeting Q4 2026 IPO at up to $1 trillion
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
OpenAI’s confidential S‑1 filing on May 22 (reported by Roborhythms) set a target valuation of $852 bn–$1 tn for a Q4 2026 listing, briefly raising optimism for early‑date outcomes before the June delay news hit. The initial optimism is reflected in the May‑June price spikes preceding the later declines.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced strong revenue growth, reporting $6 billion in Q1 2026, supporting its valuation and IPO prospects, positively impacting market confidence for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI engages Citigroup, JPMorgan for IPO discussions
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%3%
Reports that OpenAI was in discussions with Citigroup and JPMorgan about IPO financing reinforced belief in a year‑end offering, causing the “December 31 2026” probability to climb to a record 78 % before a pull‑back on June 11.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO registration with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%43%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft registration statement (S-1) to the SEC, confirming the start of the IPO process but stating timing was undecided, which increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO while reducing near-term expectations.
OpenAI prepares to file for IPO in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%22%
On May 20, 2026, multiple credible sources reported that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO soon, signaling the start of the public offering process and increasing market expectations for an IPO in 2026. This news caused a significant price increase for later IPO dates.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO paperwork soon
September 30, 2026 surges to 53%16%
The Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare confidential IPO filings, targeting a public debut in late 2026. This news caused a temporary price increase reflecting renewed optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO prospectus in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%44%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 with the SEC in the coming weeks, confirming that an IPO filing was imminent. The news pushed market expectations toward a late‑2026 listing, sparking a sharp rise in the probability of the December 31 2026 outcome (price rose from ~30 % to a peak of 74 %).
OpenAI preparing to file confidential IPO prospectus in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%47%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file an IPO prospectus within weeks. This was the first public hint of a filing and lifted optimism for a late‑2026 listing, pushing the December 31 2026 outcome up from the mid‑20s to over 70 % while dragging the near‑term July and August odds sharply lower.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing soon
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%25%
Multiple news outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes. This marked a key step toward a public offering.
OpenAI preparing to file for IPO in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%43%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the deal. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for later IPO dates, especially December 31, 2026.
SpaceX IPO filing heightens competition among major tech IPOs
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
SpaceX confidentially filed for its IPO, increasing competition in the tech IPO market and indirectly impacting OpenAI's IPO timing expectations. This contributed to market skepticism about OpenAI's near-term IPO prospects, causing price drops for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO plans, sparking market speculation
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI confidentially filed draft IPO paperwork with the SEC, signaling serious intent to go public possibly in late 2026. This news caused a spike in market prices for IPO outcomes, reflecting increased trader confidence in an upcoming announcement.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidential IPO filing preparation
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%35%
News that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus sparked market optimism about an imminent public offering, causing a sharp increase in IPO-related outcome prices.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing, targeting September debut
OpenAI announced plans to file confidentially for a U.S. IPO soon, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026. This news boosted market optimism, reflected in rising prices for later IPO dates.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%16%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman. The legal victory removed a major dispute that could have delayed an IPO, boosting confidence in a late‑2026 offering and lifting the December‑31‑2026 outcome.
OpenAI prepares confidential S‑1 filing ahead of IPO
June 30, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 in the coming weeks, cementing the filing as a concrete step toward an IPO and spurring a sharp rise in the June‑30 market probability.
OpenAI to confidentially file IPO draft as early as Friday, CNBC confirms
December 31, 2026 surges to 78%52%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file a draft IPO prospectus within days, confirming the company’s intent to go public as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026. The news sparked a sharp rise in the “December 31, 2026” odds, pushing the price from 26 % to a high of 78 % within a week.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus, signaling intent to go public
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%46%
Reports emerged that OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC, sparking a surge in market optimism for a 2026 IPO, especially for late-year dates. This filing was seen as a critical step toward a public offering and caused a significant price jump in the December 31, 2026 outcome from 25% to over 70%.
OpenAI rejects Elon Musk’s lawsuit, clearing path for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
OpenAI successfully defended against a lawsuit from Elon Musk alleging deviation from its nonprofit mission, removing a major legal obstacle to its IPO. This legal victory boosted market confidence in the September 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI preparing to confidentially file IPO prospectus imminently
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%7%
Multiple major news outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus within days, signaling strong market anticipation for a 2026 IPO and boosting prices for later 2026 IPO dates.
OpenAI aims for September IPO amid competition and market conditions
September 30, 2026 drops to 39%11%
Sources indicated OpenAI was aiming to go public as early as September 2026, working on a draft IPO prospectus, which increased market speculation about a third-quarter IPO date.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing, targeting late 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%42%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public listing as early as September or Q4 2026. This news boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, causing a sharp price increase for the December 31, 2026 outcome and a drop for earlier dates.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, positively impacting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft IPO prospectus. This sparked a massive shift in market expectations, driving up the probability of a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing targeting Q4 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%9%
OpenAI announced preparations to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with the SEC, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026. This formal step increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, causing a price surge for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI eyes September IPO with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
August 31, 2026 plunges to 5%41%
A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 debut (with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) added upside to the “August 31 2026” and “September 30 2026” outcomes, driving those odds up briefly before later fading.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO draft registration statement
December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%10%
OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public. This filing increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, particularly boosting the December 31, 2026 outcome price from 24% to 34%.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing Confidential IPO Filing for September
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026, causing summer timelines to collapse.
OpenAI IPO Preparations Push Near-Term Timelines Down
August 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
Reports of a September 2026 target date and internal debates about reporting readiness caused the probability of earlier IPO dates (July and August) to plummet.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This shifted expectations away from mid-2026 dates.
OpenAI says it will confidentially file IPO paperwork in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
OpenAI announced it would file a confidential IPO registration statement within days, confirming the filing timeline and targeting a September 2026 listing. The news pushed market confidence in a late‑2026 IPO, lifting the December‑31, 2026 probability sharply.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing targeting September 2026
September 30, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI confidentially filed its draft S-1 with the SEC around May 22, 2026, aiming for a public listing as early as September 2026 with a valuation above $1 trillion. This filing increased market optimism for a late 2026 IPO despite ongoing uncertainties.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
Media outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential S-1 filing, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI Prepares to File Confidentially for IPO
September 30, 2026 dips to 47%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare confidential IPO paperwork, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI September IPO Plans Collapse Odds for Summer Listings
August 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
The revelation of a targeted September 2026 IPO date immediately crushed the probability of earlier summer outcomes, such as July and August.
OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO in Coming Weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%46%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a draft IPO prospectus, aiming to go public as early as September 2026. This shifted expectations away from mid-summer dates toward late 2026.
SpaceX files public IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%42%
SpaceX publicly filed its IPO prospectus, disclosing financials and targeting a June 12 Nasdaq debut. This event heightened market focus on AI-related IPOs, including OpenAI's, influencing timing expectations and competitive positioning in the market.
OpenAI said to be preparing confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
Multiple outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 within days. The news triggered a sharp swing upward for the "December 31, 2026" contract (from ~27 % to ~70 %) and a simultaneous drop for the near‑term dates, as traders reassessed the likelihood of a September debut.
Legal ruling favors OpenAI in Musk lawsuit, boosting IPO outlook
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%43%
A federal jury ruled against Elon Musk's claims against OpenAI on May 18, 2026, removing a legal overhang and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, contributing to market price increases for later IPO dates.
OpenAI Prepares Confidential IPO Filing Targeting September Debut
August 31, 2026 plunges to 13%33%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026. This news made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing July and August options to collapse.
OpenAI prepares imminent IPO filing targeting September debut
September 30, 2026 surges to 50%19%
Multiple credible sources including The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential IPO prospectus imminently, aiming for a public debut as soon as September 2026. This news significantly increased market confidence in the September 30, 2026 IPO outcome, causing a sharp price rise.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus, targeting September debut
Multiple sources including CNBC, Reuters, and The New York Times reported OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, aiming for a public debut in September 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters.
OpenAI preparing imminent IPO filing targeting September debut
September 30, 2026 plunges to 30%20%
Multiple credible sources including The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO as early as May 22, aiming for a public debut in September 2026. This news significantly increased market confidence in the IPO occurring by the later dates in the year.
Reports of September IPO Target Push Out Odds for Earlier Summer Dates
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
The revelation that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 public debut made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing the July and August contract prices to collapse.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing imminent
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%47%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, with filings possibly as soon as that week. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for IPO dates in late 2026, especially December 31, 2026, as traders anticipated a public offering soon.
Reports reveal OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO very soon
September 30, 2026 plunges to 22%28%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on a draft IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI IPO Reports Collapse Shorter-Term July and August Targets
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
With reports indicating OpenAI was targeting a September or Q4 2026 public debut, shorter-term options like July 31 and August 31 collapsed as they became highly unlikely.
Reports emerge that OpenAI plans confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Media reports revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September.
OpenAI preparing imminent IPO filing targeting September debut
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%37%
Reports from The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg indicated OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO soon, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026. This news sparked initial market optimism, lifting probabilities for a late 2026 IPO.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft of its IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO prospectus
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
CNBC and Axios reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft of its IPO prospectus, boosting expectations for a late 2026 listing.
SpaceX files S‑1 as OpenAI readies its confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
The same day SpaceX filed its S‑1, media highlighted OpenAI’s imminent filing, creating a perception that OpenAI was being eclipsed by SpaceX’s high‑profile debut. This contributed to the steep negative swing for the September 30 outcome on May 21‑22.
Reports emerge that OpenAI plans to file confidential IPO prospectus
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
CNBC and Axios reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with the SEC as soon as Friday, May 22. This sparked a massive surge in late 2026 expectations while crushing near-term options like July and August.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Multiple outlets (NYT, Reuters, CNBC) reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file an IPO prospectus in the coming weeks. The news introduced uncertainty about the exact filing date, prompting a sharp decline in the market’s confidence for the earlier‑dated outcomes (June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30).
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday
September 30, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This shifted market expectations away from mid-2026 dates toward later 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI Prepares to File Confidentially for IPO in Coming Weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, boosting market expectations for a late 2026 listing.
Elon Musk's Federal Lawsuit Against OpenAI Dismissed by Jury
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%45%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the path for the company's IPO plans.
OpenAI aims for speedy IPO filing soon, targeting September debut
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Sources confirmed OpenAI's plan to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, aiming for a September public debut, intensifying market expectations and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic and SpaceX.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidentially filing IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, signaling the start of formal IPO preparations and sparking increased market speculation about a late 2026 public offering. This news caused a rise in market prices for later IPO dates while reducing near-term expectations.
Federal jury throws out Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
A federal jury in Oakland dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal obstacle and prompting analysts to raise the probability of an IPO before the end of 2026. The market’s confidence in a later‑dated IPO surged, lifting the "December 31, 2026" outcome from the high‑20s to over 70 %.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%46%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The dismissal was noted in market commentary that same day and contributed to a sharp jump in the “December 31, 2026” odds on May 21.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%48%
A federal jury threw out Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud and opening the window for IPO preparations.
Jury tosses Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%41%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI on May 19. The legal win was cited as a positive catalyst, briefly lifting confidence for the December outcome before the May 20 filing reports reversed the trend.
Legal victory for OpenAI removes existential court challenge
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI fended off a major court challenge, removing a significant legal risk and boosting confidence in its IPO prospects, contributing to positive market moves.
California Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Sam Altman
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
A California jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI due to the statute of limitations, removing a major legal obstacle and clearing the path for OpenAI's anticipated IPO.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging OpenAI betrayed its nonprofit mission, removing a significant legal overhang and boosting confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, positively impacting market sentiment.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
September 30, 2026 surges to 50%22%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging OpenAI betrayed its nonprofit mission, removing a significant legal overhang that had clouded the IPO prospects. This resolution boosted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO timeline, contributing to price increases for later IPO dates.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 42%15%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal obstacle to a public offering. The verdict sparked a sharp jump in market confidence for an IPO by mid‑2026.
OpenAI Confirms No Public S-1 Filing Yet, IPO Likely Delayed to 2027
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
By mid-May, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement, and CFO Friar indicated a regulatory filing might occur in late 2026 with a potential listing in 2027, confirming market expectations of a delayed IPO.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%8%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging OpenAI betrayed its nonprofit mission, removing a major legal overhang that had been a significant obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This verdict likely gave OpenAI confidence to accelerate its IPO timeline, positively impacting market sentiment.
Jury rules against Elon Musk in high-profile lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A federal jury in Oakland ruled that Elon Musk's claims against OpenAI were barred by the statute of limitations, clearing a major legal obstacle for OpenAI's potential $1 trillion IPO.
Federal jury dismisses Musk lawsuit, clearing IPO path for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 78%22%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing the last major legal obstacle to an IPO. The verdict was reported on May 20 and caused a further boost in the market, pushing the Yes odds to a peak of 78 % on June 8.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
A California jury ruled that Elon Musk filed his lawsuit against OpenAI too late, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal increased market confidence in OpenAI's ability to proceed with an IPO.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory boosted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, positively impacting prices for all IPO outcomes.
Federal Jury Rules in Favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk Lawsuit
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
A federal jury decided in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk's lawsuit due to the statute of limitations. This cleared a major legal hurdle, boosting confidence in a 2026 IPO timeline.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, clearing IPO path
A federal jury ruled against Elon Musk in his $150 billion lawsuit accusing OpenAI of betraying its nonprofit mission, finding the claims untimely. This removed a major legal overhang, increasing market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Federal Court Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
A federal court dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit challenging OpenAI's transition to a for-profit structure, removing a major legal obstacle and paving the way for an accelerated IPO timeline.
Ongoing Musk v. Altman trial adds uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
The trial began April 27, 2026, with Elon Musk seeking $130 billion in damages and removal of OpenAI executives, creating legal uncertainty. The advisory verdict was expected by mid-May, contributing to market caution and maintaining the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome price near 27%.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman testifies in lawsuit brought by Elon Musk
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%4%
Sam Altman defended OpenAI against Musk's claims in court, addressing accusations related to the company's for-profit conversion. The high-profile trial added legal risk and uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects.
No OpenAI S-1 filing as of mid-May 2026 amid IPO speculation
By May 13, 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement, despite ongoing speculation about a late 2026 IPO. This absence of formal filing reinforced market doubts about a June 30, 2026, IPO, keeping prices low for that outcome.
Attorney General coalition urges SEC scrutiny of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
A coalition of 10 state attorneys general called on the SEC to apply stringent scrutiny to OpenAI's potential IPO filings, citing concerns about investor protections and business practices. This regulatory pressure introduced uncertainty and risk for the IPO timeline.
No public S-1 filing yet as OpenAI continues IPO preparations with major banks
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
Despite ongoing preparations and discussions with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, OpenAI had not filed for IPO by mid-May, contributing to a decline in market price to 27%.
OpenAI still has no public S‑1 filing as of mid‑May
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Analysts noted that OpenAI still had not filed a public S‑1 as of 13 May 2026, confirming that the IPO timeline remained uncertain. This reinforced market doubts and pushed the June 30 2026 probability down from 3 % on 4 May to 2 % on 10 May.
No IPO filing yet; OpenAI targets Q4 2026 for public listing
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
Reports confirm OpenAI has not filed IPO paperwork as of mid-May 2026 but is targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, consistent with market pricing showing low probability for earlier IPO dates. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, particularly December 31, 2026.
No S-1 filing by OpenAI as of mid-May 2026 despite IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
By May 13, 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, despite ongoing rumors of a 2026 IPO. This absence of official filing reinforced market skepticism about a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to low prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
No IPO filing yet; OpenAI valuation and revenue continue to grow
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
As of mid-May 2026, OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork despite growing valuation and revenue, maintaining uncertainty about IPO timing and contributing to low market prices for near-term IPO outcomes.
Multi-state coalition urges SEC to scrutinize OpenAI IPO filings
December 31, 2026 plunges to 55%19%
A coalition of 10 state attorneys general called on the SEC to apply stringent scrutiny to OpenAI's potential IPO filings, citing concerns about investor protections and corporate governance. This regulatory pressure introduced uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm for an earlier IPO date.
States urge SEC to scrutinize OpenAI’s IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%
A coalition of ten state attorneys general asked the SEC to scrutinize OpenAI’s prospective IPO, introducing regulatory risk and pulling the “June 30 2026” confidence down to near‑zero.
OpenAI has not filed S-1 registration statement as of mid-May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Despite strong fundraising and preparations, OpenAI had not filed the required S-1 paperwork with the SEC by mid-May 2026, indicating potential delays and contributing to market price declines for near-term IPO outcomes.
Anthropic valuation surpasses OpenAI, intensifying IPO competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Bloomberg reported Anthropic in talks to raise $30 billion at a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion. This heightened competitive pressure and uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing, contributing to further price declines for 2026 IPO outcomes.
Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation amid IPO market competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
Bloomberg reported Anthropic in talks to raise $30 billion at a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation. This competitive pressure and valuation shift contributed to market doubts about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation, keeping downward pressure on the December 31, 2026 outcome price around 27-28%.
Anthropic raises $30B at valuation surpassing OpenAI’s
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
Bloomberg reported Anthropic’s funding round valued it above OpenAI, intensifying competitive pressure and casting doubt on OpenAI’s ability to IPO in 2026 at a high valuation, further depressing the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI has no public IPO filing or date as of mid-May 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
Despite speculation and preparations, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC nor announced an IPO date by May 12, 2026. This lack of official progress contributed to a decline in market confidence for a 2026 IPO.
Anthropic Raises $30 Billion, Surpassing OpenAI Valuation, Increasing Competitive Pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Bloomberg reported Anthropic's talks to raise $30 billion at a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, intensifying competitive risks and dampening OpenAI IPO market sentiment.
10 states ask SEC to tightly review OpenAI’s IPO filings
December 31, 2026 jumps to 27%9%
Ten state attorneys general, led by Montana’s AG, formally asked the SEC to scrutinise OpenAI’s forthcoming IPO filings. The regulatory pressure added a layer of uncertainty, nudging the market back up to 27 % on May 12‑16 after the May 1 trough.
Anthropic valuation overtakes OpenAI in $30 bn fundraising talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%4%
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic was in talks to raise at least $30 billion at a valuation over $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion mark. The news heightened the perceived competitive pressure on OpenAI’s IPO timing, nudging the Dec 31 2026 probability down from 32 % on 1 May to 28 % on 7 May.
Anthropic Raises $30 Billion at $900 Billion Valuation, Surpassing OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
Anthropic's large funding round and higher valuation intensified competitive pressure on OpenAI, raising doubts about OpenAI's ability to IPO in 2026 and affecting market sentiment negatively.
Bloomberg reports Anthropic's $30 billion raise at $900 billion valuation, intensifying IPO race
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $900 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI's valuation and creating competitive pressure. This development influenced market sentiment by highlighting the competitive IPO landscape and possibly delaying OpenAI's listing.
Anthropic raises $30B at $900B valuation, surpassing OpenAI in private markets
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Anthropic's large funding round and valuation exceeding OpenAI's intensified competitive pressure and raised questions about OpenAI's valuation and IPO timing, contributing to market uncertainty.
OpenAI launches new subsidiary with $4 billion investment to boost enterprise AI
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion investment and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro, signaling operational scaling ahead of its eventual public debut and supporting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI launches new AI deployment company with $4 billion investment and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%40%
OpenAI formed the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in capital and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment capabilities, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Launches OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 Billion Investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and agreed to acquire consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
OpenAI launches $4 billion deployment unit and acquires AI consulting firm Tomoro
OpenAI announced the creation of a new company backed by $4 billion to help organizations deploy AI systems and acquired Tomoro, an AI consulting firm, signaling operational scaling ahead of a public listing. This move increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, particularly lifting the September 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Deployment Company and Acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced a major corporate expansion, launching a private equity-backed joint venture with $4 billion in capital and acquiring consulting firm Tomoro to accelerate enterprise AI adoption.
OpenAI creates $4 billion deployment unit and buys Tomoro
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
Reuters announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion seed investment and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro, signalling a serious push toward enterprise revenue and public‑market readiness, which helped sustain the market’s bullish stance.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Deployment Subsidiary and Acquires Consulting Firm Tomoro
August 31, 2026 plunges to 5%41%
OpenAI announced the creation of the OpenAI Deployment Company backed by $4 billion in capital and its acquisition of UK-based consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
Congressional investigation and employee secondary sales raise IPO risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
Reports emerged of a formal Congressional investigation into CEO Sam Altman's investments and $6.6 billion in employee secondary share sales, increasing regulatory and governance risks ahead of the IPO. This contributed to further market price declines.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Subsidiary and Acquires Consulting Firm Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion investment and the acquisition of Tomoro to accelerate enterprise AI adoption. This strategic expansion signaled operational scaling ahead of its eventual public debut.
OpenAI and Microsoft Agree to Cap Total Revenue Sharing at $38 Billion
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap the total revenue shared under their partnership at $38 billion. This cap is intended to help OpenAI present a cleaner, more attractive financial profile to prospective public investors as it prepares for its IPO.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI services company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion initial investment to accelerate enterprise AI adoption, acquiring AI consulting firm Tomoro. This strategic move highlighted OpenAI's focus on scaling AI deployment but did not include an IPO filing, keeping the public listing timeline uncertain.
OpenAI forms new joint venture with $4 billion investment and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
OpenAI announced the formation of OpenAI Deployment Company with over $4 billion investment and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro, enhancing enterprise AI deployment but not indicating imminent IPO filing, maintaining cautious market outlook.
OpenAI Launches New Corporate Deployment Unit with $4 Billion Investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company, backed by $4 billion in capital, and agreed to acquire consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment. This operational scaling boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI deployment company and acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in investment and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI forms OpenAI Deployment Company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
In May, OpenAI launched a new joint venture with $4 billion investment and acquired Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI creates $4 B Deployment Company, acquires Tomoro to scale enterprise AI
September 30, 2026 jumps to 45%7%
Reuters reported OpenAI’s launch of a new $4 billion‑backed Deployment Company and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro, signalling readiness for enterprise scaling and supporting a later‑2026 IPO, which helped lift the September 30 2026 probability after a brief dip.
OpenAI launches $4 billion deployment company and acquires Tomoro
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI announced the launch of a $4 billion deployment subsidiary and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro. The move was interpreted as a push to grow enterprise revenue before an IPO, nudging the market for the July 31 and August 31 outcomes slightly lower as investors questioned cash‑burn.
OpenAI launches $4 bn deployment unit, acquires Tomoro
September 30, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
OpenAI announced the launch of the $4 billion‑backed OpenAI Deployment Company and its acquisition of Tomoro. The move signalled operational scaling ahead of a public listing, boosting confidence in a late‑2026 IPO and lifting the September‑30 probability before it later fell as the June‑8 filing clarified timing.
OpenAI forms new deployment company with $4 billion investment and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
OpenAI announced the creation of OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion investment and acquisition of consulting firm Tomoro, signaling strategic expansion in enterprise AI deployment ahead of IPO, but also highlighting ongoing operational scaling challenges.
OpenAI announces $4 billion investment to boost corporate AI deployment
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%4%
OpenAI created a new company with over $4 billion in initial investment to help organizations deploy AI systems, signaling aggressive expansion and strengthening its enterprise presence ahead of IPO plans. This move increased market confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
OpenAI Launches Deployment Company with $4 Billion Investment and Acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company alongside the acquisition of applied AI consulting firm Tomoro. This strategic expansion signaled operational scaling and enterprise readiness, boosting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI launches $4 bn Deployment Company, acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%3%
OpenAI announced the creation of a $4 billion‑backed Deployment Company and the acquisition of consulting firm Tomoro. The move was interpreted as a sign that the firm is still building the infrastructure needed for a public listing, helping the market recover to the mid‑20 % range by May 11‑13.
CFO Sarah Friar warns of possible 2027 IPO delay
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
CFO Sarah Friar hinted internally that the IPO might be delayed to 2027, causing a modest drop in the “June 30, 2026” odds from 4 % to 1 % by early June.
OpenAI confirms IPO preparations targeting late 2026 to early 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
OpenAI reiterated plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or early 2027 with a valuation up to $1 trillion, but timing remained uncertain, leading to further market skepticism and a price decline to 27%.
No official OpenAI IPO filing or date announced by mid-May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Despite strong revenue growth and structural changes, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date by May 10, 2026, causing market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome to decline to near 2%.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%6%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, reflecting cost-cutting and strategic focus ahead of the IPO, which influenced investor sentiment and market pricing.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid rival Anthropic's progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%1%
Market sentiment turned more cautious as rival Anthropic pursued its own IPO plans for late 2026, and OpenAI's lack of filing fueled doubts about a 2026 IPO, reflected in declining market prices for June and December 2026 outcomes.
Analysis suggests OpenAI IPO unlikely before late 2027 due to financial and operational hurdles
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
PitchBook analysis published in early May 2026 projected that OpenAI's IPO would likely be delayed to mid-to-late 2027, citing heavy financial commitments and the need for sustained performance, which further dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal overhang
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a significant legal risk that had clouded OpenAI’s IPO prospects, positively influencing market sentiment.
PitchBook Analyst Suggests OpenAI IPO Will Likely Be Delayed to Mid-to-Late 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Venture capital analysts agreed with internal concerns, stating that OpenAI needs several quarters of clean execution and should target mid-to-late 2027 for its IPO rather than rushing into 2026.
Concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability and missed revenue targets reported
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
Reports highlighted OpenAI missing internal revenue and user growth targets, with CFO Friar privately warning about the risk of not covering massive data center contract costs. These financial concerns dampened market enthusiasm for a near-term IPO, reflected in declining prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO expresses doubts about readiness for 2026 IPO amid organizational challenges
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%7%
In early May 2026, CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed concerns internally that OpenAI might not be procedurally or organizationally ready for a 2026 IPO, citing the need for compliance and reporting groundwork, which dampened market optimism.
No confirmed IPO date as OpenAI focuses on private funding and growth
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO or announced a date, continuing to raise private capital and grow revenues, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
No IPO filing yet; OpenAI valuation at $852 billion after latest funding
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 for IPO despite high valuation and revenue growth, causing market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome to plummet to 2%, reflecting skepticism about a mid-2026 IPO.
No IPO filing or date announced despite market speculation
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO nor announced a date, despite ongoing rumors and market speculation. This lack of concrete progress led to further declines in IPO market prices, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
OpenAI officially confirmed submitting a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking a formal step toward a potential IPO. The company emphasized that timing remains undecided and the IPO may be delayed due to operational priorities, causing mixed market reactions.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO filing
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Alongside the IPO filing announcement, CEO Sam Altman published a post emphasizing AI's transformative potential and the company's strategic considerations, reinforcing the IPO's significance but also the complexity of timing decisions.
OpenAI CFO privately suggests delaying IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar recommended postponing the IPO to 2027, citing the need to control spending and meet public company reporting standards. This dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, contributing to further price declines.
OpenAI CFO warns company may not be ready for 2026 IPO due to spending
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
In early May 2026, CFO Sarah Friar reportedly warned colleagues that OpenAI might not be ready for a 2026 IPO if compute spending continues to outpace revenue, dampening market expectations for a near-term public offering.
No official OpenAI IPO date announced despite strong market speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date, despite extensive preparations and market anticipation. This lack of official confirmation contributed to a decline in market confidence for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
No public S-1 filing or ticker for OpenAI as of early May 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
As of May 6, 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement nor announced a public ticker, indicating no official IPO filing yet. This absence of formal IPO steps contributed to declining market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI has no public S-1 or ticker as of early May 2026, IPO date remains unconfirmed
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Despite extensive preparations and a record funding round, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement or announced a public ticker by May 6, 2026. This absence of formal IPO steps reinforced market skepticism about a 2026 listing, reflected in low prices for near-term IPO outcomes.
Canadian privacy regulators find OpenAI's ChatGPT training violated privacy laws
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
A joint investigation by Canadian privacy regulators concluded that OpenAI's initial ChatGPT training violated federal and provincial privacy laws, highlighting issues with data collection and consent. Although OpenAI agreed to implement measures to address concerns, regulatory scrutiny added uncertainty to the company's IPO outlook.
OpenAI CFO Expresses Concerns About Readiness for 2026 IPO Amid High Spending
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
CFO Sarah Friar reportedly warned internally that OpenAI may not be ready for a 2026 IPO due to compute spending outpacing revenue, dampening market optimism and contributing to price declines.
OpenAI Has No Public S-1 Filing or Confirmed IPO Date as of Early May
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Despite strong revenue and valuation, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date by early May, reinforcing market doubts about a 2026 IPO and contributing to price declines for later IPO dates.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic shift to focus resources ahead of its anticipated IPO. This move was interpreted as a preparatory step for the IPO, but did not immediately boost market prices for any specific IPO date.
No official OpenAI IPO filing or date announced as of early May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
By early May 2026, despite strong private funding and market speculation, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an official IPO date, causing a decline in market confidence for near-term IPO outcomes, particularly June 30, 2026.
OpenAI joint venture in advanced talks to acquire AI services firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%2%
OpenAI's new joint venture was reported to be in advanced stages of acquiring AI services companies to expand deployment capabilities, signaling strategic moves but no direct IPO progress, contributing to mixed market sentiment.
OpenAI plans new AI deployment venture with $4 billion investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%4%
OpenAI announced the formation of OpenAI Deployment Company with over $4 billion in initial investment and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment services. This strategic move aimed to strengthen business operations but did not directly resolve IPO timing uncertainty.
Kalshi market prices near 100% probability for OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Kalshi prediction market contracts for an OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026, reached maximum value, reflecting strong market consensus early in the year, though no IPO announcement occurred by that date, leading to later price adjustments.
OpenAI faces competitive and financial hurdles ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
An analysis highlighted mounting financial and competitive challenges for OpenAI as it prepares for its IPO, including intense rivalry with Anthropic and the need for substantial capital investment. This tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to a decline in the market's probability pricing for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, signaling IPO intent but highlighting capital needs
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%1%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation removed structural barriers to going public and was accompanied by revised Microsoft partnership terms. This move signaled clear intent to IPO but also underscored the company's immense capital needs for compute infrastructure, maintaining market uncertainty about timing.
Reports Reveal OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Privately Warned Company Is Not Ready for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Reports surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar privately warned colleagues that OpenAI missed internal targets and may need to delay its IPO to 2027, causing a sharp drop in the probability of a 2026 listing.
OpenAI completes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%1%
OpenAI announced a massive private funding round, raising $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, underscoring strong financial backing but no IPO filing yet. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, causing a decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price as the market awaited official filings.
OpenAI’s PBC conversion and new Microsoft deal remove structural IPO hurdle
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%24%
Octagon AI reported that OpenAI’s conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation and a revised Microsoft partnership removed a key structural barrier, pushing market odds for an IPO announcement to near‑100 % and lifting the December‑31 contract to its peak.
Reports highlight OpenAI's financial losses and IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
News of missed revenue targets and internal warnings about IPO readiness introduced execution risk, dampening market enthusiasm and causing price declines.
Reports Highlight CFO Sarah Friar's Private Warnings That OpenAI Is Not Ready for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%10%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately warned colleagues that the company was not ready for a 2026 listing due to massive compute spending outstripping revenue, causing a sharp drop in market confidence.
OpenAI completes PBC conversion and revises Microsoft deal, targets late 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
On May 4, 2026, OpenAI completed its conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation and renegotiated its Microsoft partnership to reduce risks for public investors. The company targeted a late 2026 IPO, but internal concerns about readiness persisted, keeping market probabilities low.
OpenAI completes Public Benefit Corporation conversion and restructures Microsoft partnership
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%4%
OpenAI finalized its conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation and renegotiated its Microsoft partnership to remove exclusivity, addressing structural risks and signaling intent to pursue an IPO. This was seen as a positive preparatory step, causing a modest price recovery from 30% to 34% on May 4, 2026, supporting the December 31, 2026 IPO timeline.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI IPO preparations but notes hurdles
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Analysis from Octagon AI emphasized OpenAI's structural changes and financial hurdles ahead of an IPO, with no confirmed date but expectations for a late 2026 listing. This contributed to declining market prices for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting increased uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Reportedly Advocates Delaying IPO to 2027 Over Spending Concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested pushing the IPO timeline from 2026 to 2027, citing massive compute spending commitments and public reporting readiness, which severely dampened 2026 IPO expectations.
OpenAI faces financial and competitive hurdles despite IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
An analysis on May 4, 2026, highlighted OpenAI's structural changes and IPO preparations but noted mounting financial and competitive challenges. This likely contributed to further market caution and price declines for the December 31, 2026, outcome as investors reassessed risks.
OpenAI faces mounting financial and competitive hurdles ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's ongoing losses, competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google, and internal challenges, raising doubts about IPO readiness and contributing to market price declines.
OpenAI CFO warns IPO may need to be postponed to 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
Octagon AI reported that CFO Sarah Friar publicly expressed doubts about the company’s readiness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting a possible delay to 2027. The comment reinforced market scepticism and contributed to the modest decline from 33 % to 27 % in the final days of the analysis window.
OpenAI completes conversion to Public Benefit Corporation, advancing IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%4%
OpenAI's legal restructuring to a Public Benefit Corporation removed barriers to going public and was seen as a positive step toward an IPO. This structural change helped stabilize market sentiment temporarily.
OpenAI files amended S-1, signaling IPO preparations continue
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%2%
OpenAI filed an amended S-1 on May 4, 2026, indicating ongoing preparations for an IPO despite internal concerns. This filing maintained some market optimism but did not fully counterbalance skepticism about the 2026 timeline, resulting in mixed price movements.
Reports highlight OpenAI's IPO readiness concerns amid structural changes
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%9%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately warned the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO due to spending risks and organizational challenges. This raised execution risk concerns, leading to a decline in market confidence and a drop in contract prices.
OpenAI CFO urges 2027 IPO delay over revenue misses and $600 B compute spend
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
TechTimes reported that CFO Sarah Friar urged delaying the IPO to 2027 because of missed revenue targets and a $600 billion compute commitment, causing the market’s confidence to wobble and the contract price to fall toward the low‑end of its range.
OpenAI CFO pushes to delay IPO to 2027 amid financial and operational concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing heavy spending, organizational challenges, and revenue growth concerns. This internal conflict with CEO Altman introduced market skepticism, contributing to a decline in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome price.
OpenAI misses growth expectations, causing investor concern
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%13%
OpenAI reportedly missed its own growth and revenue expectations, leading to declines in shares of related companies and raising concerns about OpenAI's ability to sustain spending and meet IPO standards. This news caused a sharp drop in market confidence on May 1 and 3.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Reportedly Pushes to Delay IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
Reports surfaced detailing a direct clash between CFO Sarah Friar and CEO Sam Altman, with Friar privately advocating to delay the IPO to 2027 due to rigorous public reporting standards and heavy spending commitments.
Report reveals OpenAI CFO wants to delay IPO to 2027
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar wants to delay the IPO from 2026 to 2027 due to concerns about revenue growth and readiness for public company reporting standards. This internal disagreement with CEO Sam Altman added uncertainty to the IPO timeline and contributed to market skepticism.
OpenAI raises $122 B in private round, valuation hits $852 B
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%41%
OpenAI disclosed a $122 billion private funding round at an $852 billion valuation, underscoring deep cash resources but still lacking a public filing. The news sparked a brief dip in the December‑31‑2026 probability as investors awaited a concrete IPO step.
OpenAI CFO signals caution on 2026 IPO readiness amid financial concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%14%
CFO Sarah Friar expressed worries about OpenAI's cash outflow and readiness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting a possible delay to 2027. This internal caution dampened market optimism, contributing to a price trough on May 1.
Market skepticism rises amid concerns over OpenAI's financial losses and IPO readiness
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%9%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed worries about OpenAI's cash burn and suggested delaying the IPO to 2027, dampening market enthusiasm and causing a sharp price drop.
Reports of OpenAI missing revenue targets raise IPO doubts
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI missed multiple revenue targets and user growth goals in early 2026, raising concerns about its ability to fund future compute contracts and meet public company standards. This news negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term IPO.
OpenAI reports $20.9 billion operating losses in 2025, fueling IPO skepticism
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%10%
Disclosure of massive operating losses despite revenue growth intensified concerns about financial sustainability, leading to a further drop in IPO probability.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay amid financial and readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%13%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed worries about the company's cash burn and readiness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting a possible delay to 2027 despite CEO Sam Altman's push for acceleration. This news caused a sharp drop in market confidence, reflected in a price fall from 32% to 19% on May 1, 2026, particularly impacting the December 31, 2026 IPO timing outcome.
Reports reveal OpenAI missed early 2026 revenue and user targets
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%7%
News that OpenAI failed to meet internal revenue and user growth goals raised concerns about its financial health and IPO readiness, contributing to a sharp market price drop for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI acquires personal finance startup Hiro to bolster AI business tools
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, a personal finance startup, signaling its strategic expansion into enterprise and financial AI applications ahead of its anticipated IPO. This acquisition reflects OpenAI's focus on strengthening its product offerings but did not directly confirm IPO timing.
CFO Sarah Friar warns internally that OpenAI may not be ready for a 2026 listing
December 31, 2026 plunges to 18%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar warned colleagues that massive compute spending outpacing revenue growth could delay the company's public listing beyond 2026.
Reports emerge CFO wants to delay OpenAI IPO to 2027
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
Anonymous reports indicated CFO Sarah Friar prefers delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns and cash burn, contrasting CEO Altman's push for a 2026 IPO. This internal tension contributed to market price declines for mid-2026 IPO outcomes.
WSJ: OpenAI missed revenue and user targets, fueling IPO doubts
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%13%
A Wall Street Journal report, cited by Reuters, disclosed that OpenAI missed internal revenue and weekly‑active‑user targets, sparking concerns that the company might not meet the financial standards required for a public listing. The negative news coincided with the market’s sharp fall to a low of 18 % on May 1, after briefly rebounding to 31 % on April 30.
Elon Musk testifies in lawsuit against OpenAI, adding legal uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Elon Musk took the stand in a lawsuit alleging OpenAI defrauded him, seeking $130 billion in damages and board changes. This legal dispute added execution risk and uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO timeline, negatively impacting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI missed revenue and user targets
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%17%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets, raising concerns about its ability to fund future computing contracts. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed caution about the IPO timeline, causing a significant market selloff in related stocks and reducing confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets, raising IPO doubts
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
Reports revealed OpenAI missed multiple internal revenue targets and its goal of one billion weekly ChatGPT users, raising concerns about its ability to meet future compute contracts and public company standards. This negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term IPO.
Elon Musk's trial against OpenAI begins, seeking board changes and PBC restructure reversal
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
The trial initiated by Elon Musk against OpenAI began, with Musk seeking $130 billion in damages, removal of key executives, and reversal of the October 2025 Public Benefit Corporation restructure. This legal uncertainty added risk to OpenAI's IPO prospects, pressuring market prices downward.
OpenAI reportedly missed revenue and user growth targets, raising IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%7%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets, sparking concerns among company leaders about its ability to meet public company reporting standards and support future contracts. This dampened market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
WSJ reports OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user growth targets, raising concerns about its ability to sustain data-center spending, which negatively impacted market confidence in the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI reportedly missed revenue targets, raising IPO concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed multiple revenue and user growth targets, sparking internal concerns about sustaining data-center spending and meeting public company reporting standards. This news negatively affected market confidence in a near-term IPO.
OpenAI CFO reportedly wants to delay IPO to 2027 amid financial concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO expressed worries about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting a delay to 2027 due to cash burn and the need to meet public company reporting standards. This internal tension contributed to further market decline to around 31%.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman in a lawsuit filed by Elon Musk, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and was a positive catalyst for the IPO market.
OpenAI misses revenue targets, raising IPO doubts
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Reports revealed OpenAI missed multiple revenue and user growth targets in early 2026, causing investor concerns about the company's ability to fund future compute contracts and meet public company standards. This led to sharp declines in related tech stocks and reduced confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Elon Musk takes the stand in trial seeking to unwind OpenAI's corporate structure
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Elon Musk testified in court seeking to dismantle OpenAI's October 2025 Public Benefit Corporation restructure, posing a significant legal threat to the company's planned IPO timeline.
WSJ reports OpenAI missed early 2026 revenue and user targets, CFO warns not ready for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets, with CFO Sarah Friar warning colleagues that the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO due to high cash burn and organizational challenges. This news caused a notable drop in market confidence for a 2026 IPO.
Elon Musk lawsuit trial against OpenAI begins in Oakland
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
The trial seeking to unwind OpenAI’s for-profit structure and remove key executives started, creating legal uncertainty and risk that could delay or derail the IPO, negatively impacting the December 31, 2026 outcome probability.
Reports reveal OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar wants to delay IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%12%
The Wall Street Journal reported that CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested delaying the IPO to 2027, warning that the company is not operationally ready, which severely dampened expectations for a 2026 listing.
Report: OpenAI missed early 2026 revenue and user targets, IPO readiness questioned
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets in early 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar warning the company is "not ready" for a 2026 IPO. This raised doubts about the timing of the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, causing market caution.
OpenAI Achieves FedRAMP Moderate Authorization for ChatGPT Enterprise and API Platform
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
OpenAI achieved FedRAMP Moderate authorization, marking a major milestone in expanding secure AI access to U.S. government agencies and boosting its enterprise revenue potential ahead of a potential public listing.
OpenAI CFO reportedly suggests delaying IPO to 2027
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar privately recommended postponing the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns, causing market skepticism and price declines for earlier IPO dates like June 30, 2026.
Elon Musk's Lawsuit Trial Against OpenAI Begins in Oakland
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%14%
The trial initiated by Elon Musk seeking $130 billion in damages and the unwinding of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corporation restructure began, creating significant legal uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO prospects and contributing to market price declines.
Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI begins, seeking to unwind for-profit structure
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
The Musk v. Altman trial started, with Musk seeking $130 billion in damages and removal of key OpenAI executives, threatening the company's corporate form. This legal overhang added uncertainty to the IPO timeline and negatively impacted market confidence.
Microsoft and OpenAI end exclusivity pact, allowing OpenAI to partner with Amazon and others
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%2%
On April 27, 2026, Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated their deal, ending Microsoft's exclusive rights to sell OpenAI's AI models. This allowed OpenAI to expand enterprise partnerships with Amazon and Google Cloud, aiming to strengthen its market position ahead of the IPO.
Musk v. Altman trial begins, seeking major damages and board changes
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
The trial initiated by Elon Musk against OpenAI's leadership, including CEO Sam Altman, introduced significant legal uncertainty. Musk sought over $130 billion in damages and structural changes, with a verdict expected by mid-May, impacting investor confidence in OpenAI's IPO timeline.
OpenAI and Microsoft end exclusive partnership and revenue sharing
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%3%
OpenAI and Microsoft announced an amended agreement ending Microsoft's exclusive license to OpenAI's technology, allowing OpenAI to offer its products across multiple cloud providers. This restructuring reduced dependency risks and was seen as IPO-friendly, impacting market perceptions positively.
OpenAI Misses Internal Revenue and User Growth Targets, Sparking IPO Delay Concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of 2025, alongside multiple monthly revenue targets in early 2026. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly warned colleagues that the company is not ready for a 2026 listing, causing a sharp drop in market confidence.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI and Microsoft announced an amended partnership agreement ending Microsoft's exclusive commercial license to OpenAI's technology, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider. This strategic shift indicated OpenAI's independence and readiness for public markets, influencing market sentiment for a late 2026 IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI end exclusive cloud deal, enabling broader partnerships
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft restructured their partnership, ending exclusivity and allowing OpenAI to serve products on other cloud providers like AWS and Google Cloud. This strategic move aimed to expand OpenAI's enterprise reach ahead of its IPO, impacting market expectations for its growth potential.
Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI missed revenue targets; CFO expresses IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
The Wall Street Journal on April 27, 2026, reported that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets early in 2026. CFO Sarah Friar privately warned the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO, intensifying doubts and contributing to market price drops.
Microsoft and OpenAI announce revised partnership deal removing AGI clause
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%3%
Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new partnership agreement removing the AGI-triggered termination clause, easing regulatory concerns about a de-facto acquisition. This regulatory clarity helped stabilize market sentiment around OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI revises Microsoft partnership with capped revenue share
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments in late April, clarifying financial arrangements and reducing structural risks ahead of IPO preparations, which influenced market confidence.
Microsoft and OpenAI Renegotiate Partnership to End Exclusivity
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%12%
Microsoft and OpenAI altered their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to sell its models to rivals like Amazon and Google. This move was aimed at boosting OpenAI's enterprise business and easing antitrust scrutiny ahead of planned IPOs.
Elon Musk lawsuit trial begins against OpenAI, raising IPO uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
The trial filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI started, seeking to unwind the company's for-profit structure and remove key executives. This legal overhang introduced significant uncertainty about the IPO timeline and prospects, contributing to a decline in market confidence for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI and Microsoft Restructure Partnership with Revenue Share Cap
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
OpenAI and Microsoft revised their partnership, capping revenue share payments through 2030 and removing exclusivity. This structural change was seen as a key de-risking maneuver to make OpenAI's corporate structure cleaner for public market investors.
OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Reports indicated OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user growth goals, raising concerns about its financial momentum and causing market skepticism about the December 31, 2026 IPO timing.
Microsoft revises partnership terms with OpenAI
July 31, 2026 rises to 3%1%
Microsoft announced a revised partnership that made OpenAI’s financials easier to value, briefly raising confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO and moving the “July 31, 2026” probability from 3 % to 4 % (the market’s lowest‑point swing).
OpenAI and Microsoft cap revenue share payments amid partnership strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments through 2030, indicating some strain in their partnership. This development raised questions about OpenAI's financial strategy ahead of an IPO, contributing to market caution.
WSJ reports OpenAI missed revenue and user targets, raising IPO concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%4%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user growth targets, sparking concerns about its ability to sustain data-center spending and casting doubt on the 2026 IPO timeline. This news caused a market price drop from 36% to 32%.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership, Ending Exclusivity to Allow Multi-Cloud Deals
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Microsoft and OpenAI restructured their partnership, ending Microsoft's exclusive right to distribute OpenAI's models. This allows OpenAI to run its services on rival cloud platforms like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, clearing a major hurdle for its enterprise business ahead of a planned IPO.
OpenAI IPO expected as soon as Q4 2026, no filing yet
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
Reports indicated OpenAI could go public as soon as Q4 2026, with a recent funding round valuing the company at $852 billion. However, no IPO paperwork had been filed by late April, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to a price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI still hasn’t filed IPO paperwork, still eyeing Q4 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Reports on April 26 confirmed OpenAI had not yet filed an IPO prospectus and was still targeting a Q4 2026 listing. The news cooled expectations for an early 2026 IPO, pushing the market’s probability for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes sharply lower.
Reports confirm OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid $852B valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Multiple financial news outlets reported that OpenAI is preparing for a blockbuster IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion. Despite strong revenue growth and major bank advisors, no official IPO filing had been made, leading to cautious market sentiment and a slight price decline.
Reports reveal OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, IPO readiness questioned
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed revenue and user growth targets and CFO Friar privately expressed doubts about readiness for a 2026 IPO, raising execution risks and dampening market expectations for a timely listing.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO could occur as late as Q4 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
An article noted OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork but could go public as soon as Q4 2026, with a valuation near $852 billion. This tempered earlier market optimism for a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to a decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome price and a drop in confidence for earlier IPO dates.
Reports highlight CFO concerns about IPO readiness and spending risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%12%
In late April 2026, reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and uncertain revenue growth, causing market skepticism and price declines.
OpenAI IPO expected in Q4 2026, no filing yet
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
On April 26, 2026, reports confirmed OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork but was targeting a Q4 2026 public listing. This tempered market expectations for a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to price declines for June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, outcomes as investors adjusted timelines.
Market sentiment declines amid caution on IPO timing
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%6%
Following CEO Sam Altman's caution that the IPO "may be a while," market confidence dropped, reflected in a price decline to 32%. Investors adjusted expectations for a later IPO date, reducing the probability of a 2026 listing.
OpenAI CFO warns company may not be ready for 2026 IPO due to spending
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%9%
Internal warnings about compute spending outpacing revenue raised doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, contributing to a decline in market confidence.
OpenAI CFO privately warns IPO may be delayed beyond 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
OpenAI's CFO expressed concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to high spending and the need to meet public company reporting standards, signaling potential delay and causing market doubts about the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $852B valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI announced plans to go public as early as Q4 2026 with a valuation around $852 billion, fueling market optimism and a price increase to 38%. This set expectations for a late-2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO reportedly urges IPO delay amid financial concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed worries about the company's cash burn and suggested delaying the IPO from 2026 to 2027, causing market doubts about the likelihood of a 2026 IPO and contributing to a price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Reports highlight OpenAI's $1 trillion IPO target amid financial and competitive pressures
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
On April 23, 2026, Reuters reported OpenAI targeting a $1 trillion IPO valuation but facing mounting losses and competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini. CFO Friar warned internally that the company might not be ready for a 2026 IPO, causing market skepticism and price declines.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets late 2026 IPO but CFO warns company may not be ready
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's target for a late 2026 IPO, but CFO Sarah Friar privately warned that the company might not be ready for a 2026 listing due to high compute spending and revenue concerns. This increased market skepticism, causing a price drop for 2026 IPO outcomes.
SoftBank doubles down on OpenAI ahead of expected IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
SoftBank's aggressive investment in OpenAI ahead of its anticipated IPO underscored strong backing but also raised questions about liquidity risks, influencing market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 IPO.
Cerebras Systems files S-1 with $20B OpenAI deal underpinning valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%4%
Cerebras Systems filed for its IPO backed by a $20 billion multi-year contract with OpenAI, highlighting OpenAI's massive infrastructure needs and signaling its intent to go public. This event underscored OpenAI's capital requirements but did not confirm an IPO date, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
Cerebras files S-1 with $20B OpenAI deal, highlighting OpenAI's capital needs
Cerebras Systems filed its S-1 on April 17, 2026, revealing a $20 billion multi-year deal with OpenAI for AI inference capacity. This underscored OpenAI's massive capital requirements, reinforcing the strategic necessity of an IPO to fund infrastructure spending.
OpenAI files no public S-1; CFO privately warns IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
Despite public signals, OpenAI had not filed a public S-1 by mid-April. Reports indicated CFO Friar privately warned colleagues that the company might not be ready for a 2026 IPO if compute spending outpaces revenue, causing market skepticism and price declines for 2026 IPO outcomes.
Cerebras files S-1 for mid-May IPO, highlighting AI market activity
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Cerebras Systems filed its S-1 on April 17, 2026, targeting a mid-May Nasdaq listing. This event underscored the active AI IPO market but contrasted with OpenAI's lack of filing, increasing pressure on OpenAI's timeline and contributing to market doubts about a mid-2026 IPO.
Sam Altman faces scrutiny over conflicts ahead of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
Reports emerged that CEO Sam Altman faced criticism for potential conflicts of interest involving personal investments, raising internal unease. Despite this, OpenAI's IPO remained on track, but the news introduced some uncertainty reflected in market fluctuations for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Scrutiny over Sam Altman's conflicts ahead of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Reports emerged of internal concerns about CEO Sam Altman's personal investments influencing OpenAI's strategic decisions, highlighting governance risks ahead of the IPO. This added caution to market sentiment about the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI's conversion to a public benefit corporation eliminated nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, signaling readiness for public markets and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
In early 2026, OpenAI discontinued its standalone Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic refocus on core AI products ahead of its anticipated IPO. This move was seen as a step to streamline operations and improve financials before going public.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO filing targeted for second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Statements from CFO Sarah Friar about targeting a regulatory filing in H2 2026 and a potential 2027 listing tempered early 2026 market optimism for an earlier IPO, causing some price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Reports emerge of CFO doubts on 2026 IPO readiness
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
Reports surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and organizational work, injecting uncertainty into the IPO timeline and causing market hesitation.
Investors scrutinize OpenAI's $852 billion valuation amid strategy shift
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
On April 14, 2026, reports emerged that some OpenAI investors questioned the $852 billion valuation and the company's shift toward enterprise focus, raising concerns about vulnerability to competitors and IPO timing, which pressured market confidence.
FT: OpenAI’s $852 bn valuation faces investor scepticism
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%6%
The Financial Times reported that OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation was under scrutiny from its own investors as the company shifted focus to enterprise markets. The story raised doubts about the IPO’s valuation and timing, pushing the market’s probability of a December 31 2026 listing lower, which coincided with the price dip from 38 % to 32 % on April 14‑18.
OpenAI's $852 billion valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
Reports emerged that some OpenAI investors questioned the company's $852 billion valuation and strategic shift towards enterprise markets, raising concerns about its ability to fend off competition and meet IPO expectations. This skepticism contributed to downward pressure on the IPO market probability.
OpenAI launches OpenAI Deployment Company with acquisition of Tomoro
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%6%
OpenAI announced the launch of its OpenAI Deployment Company and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro, signaling continued growth and operational scaling ahead of IPO, briefly supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI acquires personal finance startup Hiro Finance
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%1%
OpenAI's acquisition of Hiro Finance signaled ongoing expansion and investment in enterprise AI applications, supporting its growth narrative ahead of an IPO. While positive for long-term prospects, this did not directly confirm IPO timing, contributing to moderate market movements.
OpenAI acquires AI personal finance startup Hiro Finance
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, a personal finance AI startup, to enhance its business finance tools. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's ongoing expansion and product development ahead of an IPO, but no IPO filing or date was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI launches $100‑per‑month ChatGPT Pro plan
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI announced a new $100‑per‑month ChatGPT Pro tier on 9 April 2026, adding a premium subscription tier and a promotional 10× Codex boost through 31 May. The rollout raised concerns that the company was shifting focus to monetisation rather than an IPO, prompting the market’s probability for a Q4 2026 listing (Dec 31 2026 outcome) to fall from 36 % on 9 Apr to 31 % on 28 Apr.
OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman accused of sexual abuse by sister
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
Serious allegations against CEO Sam Altman emerged, leading to legal scrutiny and negative media coverage. This controversy likely contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the IPO probability price in April.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO filing targeted for second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar communicated internally that the company aims to file regulatory paperwork for an IPO in the second half of 2026, with a potential public listing in 2027. This announcement reinforced market anticipation but also suggested the IPO might slip beyond 2026, contributing to price stabilization and slight declines.
OpenAI CFO announces retail investor share allocation plan for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%2%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and enhancing market confidence in the company's IPO plans despite no official date.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation for IPO
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated in an interview that the company will allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, signaling preparation for a public listing. Although no IPO date was given, this move was seen as a step towards going public, briefly supporting market confidence in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI CFO Confirms Retail Share Allocation Plans for Upcoming IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 41%2%
CFO Sarah Friar announced that OpenAI will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for retail investors, emphasizing the importance of public trust and acting like a public company.
OpenAI CFO reiterates IPO preparations and retail share allocation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%8%
Sarah Friar emphasized OpenAI's readiness to act like a public company and confirmed retail investor share allocation plans, reinforcing IPO expectations and supporting market confidence.
OpenAI confirms retail investor share allocation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI's CFO reiterated plans to allocate shares to retail investors in the upcoming IPO, reinforcing the company's commitment to a broad public offering and supporting market confidence.
OpenAI CFO announces allocation of IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering. However, she did not confirm a timeline, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the IPO date.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar discusses compute constraints and Microsoft partnership
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
In an interview, CFO Sarah Friar highlighted ongoing challenges and strategic partnerships, emphasizing that an IPO was not the company's current focus, which tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO.
Internal CFO concerns surface over 2026 IPO readiness
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about organizational unpreparedness and procedural gaps for a 2026 IPO, contrasting with CEO Sam Altman's aggressive push for a Q4 2026 listing. This internal tension introduced uncertainty about the IPO timing.
OpenAI to allocate IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%2%
CFO Sarah Friar said OpenAI would allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, reinforcing the company’s public‑market preparation and providing a modest boost to the December‑31 probability.
OpenAI CFO says IPO will include retail‑investor share allocation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC that OpenAI will allocate a slice of its IPO shares to retail investors and hinted that a listing could occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. The explicit retail‑share plan revived optimism and pushed the market back up for the December‑2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO says firm is preparing for public‑company look‑and‑feel
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%6%
CFO Sarah Friar said OpenAI was preparing to “look and feel and act like a public company,” but stopped short of giving a firm date, slightly dampening confidence and contributing to a modest pull‑back in the market price.
OpenAI CFO says company will allocate IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company plans to reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, signaling preparation for a public offering but without confirming timing, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO expresses doubts about 2026 IPO readiness due to spending risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested delaying the IPO to 2027, citing risks from spending commitments and organizational readiness. This contributed to a sharp decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome price from 3% to 2% and a decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price from 38% to 30%.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar announces plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%3%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated in a CNBC interview that the company plans to allocate a portion of its IPO shares to retail investors, emphasizing that the company is actively preparing to act like a public entity.
OpenAI CFO states company will allocate IPO shares to retail investors
In April 2026, CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling readiness to act like a public company and supporting expectations of an IPO in late 2026.
OpenAI CFO Announces Plan to Reserve IPO Shares for Retail Investors
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%5%
CFO Sarah Friar stated that OpenAI will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for individual investors, signaling serious groundwork and public-company hygiene preparations.
OpenAI CFO Confirms IPO Plans with Retail Investor Share Reservation
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar announced plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors and indicated a potential filing in the second half of 2026. This news initially supported market optimism for a 2026 IPO but did not specify a firm date, leaving uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO announces IPO share allocation for retail investors
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, indicating preparations for a public offering and aiming to broaden investor access. This statement maintained market interest but did not confirm timing, contributing to price stability.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals retail investor share allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, emphasizing the company's intent to act like a public company. However, she did not confirm a listing timeline, reflecting ongoing IPO timing uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO says IPO shares will be allocated to retail investors, but no timeline given
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company plans to reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, emphasizing the company's intent to act like a public company. However, she did not provide a specific IPO timeline, maintaining uncertainty about the exact listing date.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Outlines Retail Share Allocation Plans for Future IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar announced that the company plans to reserve a portion of shares for retail investors when it eventually goes public. While she declined to comment on a specific timeline, the announcement reinforced that IPO preparations were actively underway.
OpenAI CFO announces IPO shares will be allocated to retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%4%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public listing and increasing confidence in a 2026 IPO, though no exact date was given.
OpenAI plans to allocate IPO shares to retail investors, CFO says
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparations for a public offering and aiming to broaden shareholder base. This reinforced the market's anticipation of an IPO in late 2026.
OpenAI CFO announces plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, signaling preparations for a large public offering and enhancing market enthusiasm for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors, CFO says
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
OpenAI announced it would allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, a move that could broaden investor base and increase IPO appeal, positively influencing the December 31, 2026 IPO market.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirms retail investor allocation in upcoming IPO
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated in an interview that the company will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for retail investors, signaling a broad-based public offering. This announcement reinforced expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO and contributed to positive market sentiment.
OpenAI CEO expresses internal concerns about IPO readiness
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%7%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO expressed worries about cash burn and suggested delaying the IPO despite CEO Sam Altman's push to accelerate. This internal conflict raised doubts about the IPO timeline, causing a price drop from 42% on April 8 to 35% by April 10.
OpenAI CFO confirms plans to allocate IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve shares for retail investors in its upcoming IPO, reinforcing market expectations of a public offering in 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
CFO Sarah Friar confirmed OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, emphasizing the company's intent to 'look and feel' like a public company and signaling readiness for a market debut, though no exact date was given.
OpenAI CFO confirms IPO share allocation for retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%4%
CFO Sarah Friar stated that OpenAI will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparations for a public offering and aiming to broaden shareholder base ahead of the IPO, supporting market confidence in a late 2026 debut.
IPO market conditions remain challenging despite OpenAI's IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Despite OpenAI's anticipated IPO, the broader IPO market in early 2026 was slower than expected, with selective exits and some delays, contributing to a decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
Bloomberg reports OpenAI preparing for IPO in late 2026 or early 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%6%
Bloomberg highlighted OpenAI's preparations for an IPO targeting late 2026 or early 2027, emphasizing the importance of a new model codenamed Spud, which underpins the company's growth strategy and IPO timing expectations.
OpenAI gears up for IPO with new product launches and $1 trillion valuation target
OpenAI announced preparations for an IPO targeting late 2026 or early 2027, with a valuation potentially reaching $1 trillion, boosting market optimism temporarily.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI among top anticipated 2026 IPOs
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
Industry experts noted OpenAI as a leading candidate for a major 2026 IPO, alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, reflecting sustained investor interest despite a slow overall IPO market start to 2026.
SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs loom amid selective exit window
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
Fortune reported that while SpaceX had filed for IPO, OpenAI was still preparing with no filing yet, highlighting a selective and cautious IPO market environment. This tempered enthusiasm for a near-term OpenAI IPO.
IPO market crowded with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic in 2026
Market reports highlighted a crowded 2026 IPO window with OpenAI aiming for a late 2026 listing alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, raising concerns about investor capital allocation and IPO timing risks.
Market optimism peaks amid speculation of OpenAI IPO timing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%8%
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation peaked, driving the market price to 43%. Investors reacted to rumors and early reports suggesting a potential IPO in late 2026, boosting confidence in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
IPO market conditions remain cautious as OpenAI eyes late 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 rises to 43%1%
Despite hype, the IPO market in early 2026 remained selective and slower than expected, with OpenAI among companies preparing for a potential late 2026 IPO, reflecting tempered investor enthusiasm and ongoing market scrutiny.
Market anticipates OpenAI IPO in Q4 2026 amid AI sector boom
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%1%
Industry reports highlighted OpenAI's looming IPO in late 2026 alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, framing 2026 as a mega-IPO year. This narrative increased investor interest and market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Market optimism rises on OpenAI's strong revenue and IPO prospects
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
Reports highlighted OpenAI generating $2 billion monthly revenue and setting ambitious advertising revenue targets, reinforcing investor optimism about the company's IPO prospects and valuation potential by the end of 2026.
OpenAI prepares for late 2026 or early 2027 IPO with new model launch
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI's launch of a new AI model codenamed Spud was part of its strategy to strengthen its position ahead of a planned IPO in late 2026 or early 2027, supporting market expectations for the December 31, 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms $20bn annualized revenue, IPO talks underway
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed in January 2026 that annualized revenue had surpassed $20 billion, fueling investor interest. Informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring of finance executives suggested preparations for an IPO, boosting market optimism for a 2026 listing.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reopen the IPO market—or drain it
Fortune reported that AI-driven venture investment was dominating capital markets, with OpenAI and Anthropic among the top IPO candidates.
OpenAI CFO flags cash‑burn risk, doubts readiness for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%23%
The Information reported that CFO Sarah Friar warned the board that the company’s cash‑burn and infrastructure commitments might make a 2026 IPO unrealistic. The cautionary tone contributed to a sharp sell‑off, pushing the Yes odds down to the single‑digit range by mid‑May.
OpenAI urges California and Delaware to investigate Elon Musk for anti-competitive behavior
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI called on state attorneys general to investigate Elon Musk's alleged anti-competitive actions ahead of a trial, increasing legal uncertainty around the company and potentially impacting IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI CFO flags regulatory and Microsoft‑reliance risks to IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
An internal memo reported by The Information highlighted CFO‑level worries about regulatory volatility and reliance on Microsoft, suggesting the IPO timeline could be overly optimistic. The concerns caused the market to retreat from 38% to 34% on Apr 6.
OpenAI announces shutdown of Sora app to focus on enterprise AI
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%3%
OpenAI decided to shut down its Sora short-form video app by April 26, 2026, to reallocate resources towards more profitable enterprise AI tools, signaling a strategic pivot ahead of its IPO and impacting investor sentiment.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Warns Against Sam Altman's 2026 IPO Timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%9%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed serious doubts about CEO Sam Altman's push for a Q4 2026 IPO, citing organizational unpreparedness and massive infrastructure spending risks.
OpenAI CFO voices concerns over aggressive 2026 IPO timeline
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, highlighting internal tensions with CEO Sam Altman over the ambitious Q4 target. This news introduced some skepticism into the market regarding the IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO says company not ready for 2026 IPO
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Reuters cited that the CFO warned the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO, contradicting the CEO’s timeline. The “July 31 2026” and “August 31 2026” probabilities collapsed to under 5 % after the story.
Internal doubts emerge over OpenAI IPO readiness
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
Reports surfaced of internal concerns within OpenAI about the company's preparedness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting potential delays or reevaluation of timing. This news caused some market uncertainty but did not significantly alter the December 31, 2026 IPO price.
CEO Sam Altman pushes for Q4 2026 IPO despite CFO concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%3%
Reports revealed tension between CEO Sam Altman, who wants a Q4 2026 IPO, and CFO Sarah Friar, who expressed concerns about operational readiness and revenue growth. This internal conflict introduced uncertainty but confirmed active IPO preparations, impacting the December 31, 2026 market.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Questions 2026 IPO Timeline, Citing Financial Risks
CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed internal skepticism about OpenAI's readiness to go public by Q4 2026, pointing to unfinished compliance work and massive infrastructure spending risks.
Reports of internal disagreement on OpenAI IPO timing between CEO and CFO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Reports emerged that CEO Sam Altman aims for a Q4 2026 IPO, while CFO Sarah Friar expressed that the company is not yet ready, highlighting internal tensions. This uncertainty contributed to price fluctuations but maintained focus on a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI leadership reshuffle amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
OpenAI experienced significant leadership changes including COO role shift and key executives taking leave, raising concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and price declines for near-term IPO outcomes.
OpenAI COO shifts role, AGI CEO on medical leave
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI’s COO stepped down and the AGI division CEO took medical leave, creating leadership uncertainty. The market’s “June 30 2026” probability fell from 6 % to 3 % the following week.
OpenAI Reshuffles Leadership as COO Shifts Out of Role and AGI CEO Takes Medical Leave
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
A major leadership shakeup occurred at OpenAI with the COO shifting roles and two key executives taking medical leave, raising execution concerns ahead of its planned IPO.
OpenAI experiences leadership shakeup ahead of IPO
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI announced that its COO shifted out of role and the AGI division CEO took medical leave, raising concerns about execution risks just months before the anticipated IPO. This leadership instability caused market uncertainty about OpenAI's readiness for public markets, impacting the July, August, and September 2026 IPO date probabilities.
OpenAI announces key executive leadership changes ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI experienced significant leadership changes with COO Brad Lightcap shifting roles and two core executives taking leaves of absence. This raised concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, impacting market confidence and prices.
OpenAI experiences leadership changes ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
OpenAI's COO shifted roles and two core executives took medical leave, raising concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO. This news introduced uncertainty about the company's readiness, impacting market confidence in the IPO timing.
OpenAI experiences leadership changes amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
In early April, OpenAI faced management shifts with key executives taking leaves or changing roles, raising concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, which contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
OpenAI experiences leadership shakeup with COO role change and key executives on leave
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%7%
The simultaneous departure and leaves of several top executives raised concerns about OpenAI's operational stability ahead of its IPO, causing market uncertainty and a dip in confidence for near-term IPO dates.
OpenAI COO shifts out, AGI CEO takes medical leave
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Bloomberg reported a sudden leadership reshuffle—COO moved to a special project and the AGI division CEO took medical leave—raising doubts about execution readiness and briefly pulling down the July‑31 probability.
OpenAI leadership shake‑up: COO departs, CMO and AGI CEO on medical leave
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
Bloomberg reported a three‑person leadership shake‑up – COO Brad Lightcap moved to a special‑projects role, CMO Kate Rouch took medical leave, and AGI CEO Fidji Simo also went on leave. The news raised execution‑risk concerns and coincided with a dip in the Yes probability to the low‑30 % range in early April.
OpenAI announces leadership changes amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI's COO Brad Lightcap transitioned to special projects and key executives took medical leave, reflecting internal restructuring as the company prepares for its IPO. These changes introduced some market uncertainty but did not derail IPO plans for late 2026.
OpenAI announces leadership shakeup ahead of IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
OpenAI experienced significant executive changes including the COO shifting roles and key executives taking medical leave, raising concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO. This management turbulence introduced uncertainty about execution capability during a critical IPO preparation phase.
OpenAI acquires media startup TBPN to strengthen editorial and audience reach
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%1%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of TBPN, a media company with strong editorial capabilities, enhancing its influence in tech and business culture. This move indicated OpenAI's focus on expanding its ecosystem ahead of a potential IPO, but did not directly signal an imminent public offering.
OpenAI acquires streaming show TBPN to influence AI narrative
OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN in early April was a strategic marketing move to shape public perception of AI, reflecting broader corporate positioning ahead of IPO but with limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI acquires TBPN, expanding media influence ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 43%2%
OpenAI acquired the Technology Business Programming Network (TBPN), a tech industry talk show, marking its first media acquisition to shape public narrative and support its IPO preparations. This strategic move reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
Market speculation intensifies on OpenAI's 2026 IPO prospects after funding news
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Following the funding announcement, analysts and media outlets discussed OpenAI's cash burn and the likelihood of a 2026 IPO, noting pressure from competitors like Anthropic. This commentary influenced market sentiment, maintaining moderate probability for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires TBPN media company to control AI narrative
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a tech-business media outlet, to strengthen its communications strategy and influence public discourse on AI. This move was part of broader preparations for the IPO, signaling OpenAI's intent to manage its public image ahead of going public.
OpenAI acquires AI personal finance startup Hiro
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, expanding its capabilities in financial planning AI, signaling ongoing strategic growth and investment ahead of a potential IPO.
OpenAI acquires tech talk show TBPN to improve public narrative on AI
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a popular technology business talk show, aiming to positively influence public perception of AI and OpenAI itself. This media acquisition was part of broader IPO preparations and helped maintain investor interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, indicating preparations to act like a public company. This announcement reinforced market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO timing.
Market analysis highlights 2026 as likely year for OpenAI IPO
Financial analysts and industry insiders widely speculated that OpenAI's IPO would occur in 2026, emphasizing the company's transition to a for-profit benefit corporation and the potential ripple effect on other AI IPOs. This reinforced market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation removed nonprofit-related barriers to going public, facilitating a traditional IPO. This structural change was a key step toward a potential late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires tech podcast TBPN to shape AI public narrative
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN, a popular tech talk show, marked its first media acquisition, signaling efforts to influence public discourse ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI acquires media show TBPN
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%2%
OpenAI disclosed the acquisition of the tech‑talk show TBPN, a move framed as a branding and communications effort ahead of a potential IPO. The news gave a modest boost to the June 30, 2026 outcome, raising its price from 3 % on Mar 7 to 5 % on Apr 5.
OpenAI raises $122 billion including $3 billion from retail investors
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI announced raising $122 billion with $3 billion from individual investors, signaling broadening shareholder base ahead of IPO. Inclusion in ETFs managed by ARK Invest further prepared the company for public market debut, increasing IPO likelihood in 2026.
OpenAI revises Microsoft partnership and converts to Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%4%
Structural changes addressed risks and aligned OpenAI for public markets, signaling readiness for an IPO but also highlighting ongoing challenges, causing mixed market reactions.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying 2026 mega-IPO competition
December 31, 2026 rises to 42%3%
SpaceX's IPO filing heightened market focus on 2026 mega-IPOs, indirectly pressuring OpenAI's timing and valuation prospects amid competitive dynamics.
OpenAI shifts focus to enterprise revenue growth amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
OpenAI reported enterprise revenue now accounts for 40% of total revenue and is on track to reach parity with consumer revenue by end of 2026. This growth narrative supports the company's IPO readiness and valuation, influencing market sentiment positively for the December 31, 2026 IPO timing.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation addressed previous nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, increasing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO and supporting price stability for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
SpaceX confidentially files for IPO, intensifying tech IPO competition
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
SpaceX's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026 heightened competition among major tech IPOs, indirectly affecting market sentiment and expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing. The competitive environment contributed to uncertainty and volatility in OpenAI's IPO market prices.
OpenAI shuts down standalone Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling strategic focus ahead of a potential IPO. This raised concerns about growth prospects, contributing to market price declines.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying AI IPO competition
SpaceX filed its confidential S-1 on April 1, 2026, targeting a massive valuation and a June roadshow, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI to finalize its IPO plans. This event contributed to market uncertainty and volatility in OpenAI IPO pricing, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI projects $85 billion cash burn in 2028, profitability by 2030
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Financial reports indicated OpenAI expects to burn $85 billion in 2028 and reach profitability only by 2030, raising concerns about near-term financial sustainability and dampening IPO prospects, reflected in price dropping from 36% to 31%.
OpenAI announces conversion to Public Benefit Corporation and revises Microsoft partnership
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%2%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation and updated Microsoft partnership addressed structural risks and aligned the company for a public offering. This strategic move was crucial for IPO readiness, supporting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, underscoring its financial strength and fueling speculation about a potential IPO. This event temporarily supported market confidence but did not include an IPO filing or date.
OpenAI's valuation soars to $852 billion after major funding round
OpenAI's private-market valuation increased nearly tenfold to $852 billion by March 2026 after a $122 billion funding round, fueling expectations for a high-value IPO and driving early market optimism for a 2026 public listing.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%8%
OpenAI officially closed its massive $122 billion funding round, raising its valuation to $852 billion and securing $3 billion from individual retail investors, paving the way for its IPO.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion in Historic Private Funding Round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%12%
OpenAI closed the largest private funding round in Silicon Valley history, valuing the company at $852 billion and providing the capital runway needed ahead of its public debut.
OpenAI raises $122 bn at $852 bn valuation, fueling IPO optimism
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%15%
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, the largest private raise in Silicon Valley history. The influx of capital boosted confidence in the IPO plan, lifting the Yes probability to a peak of 56% on Jan 30 and sustaining high levels through March.
OpenAI announces $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
OpenAI disclosed a massive $122 billion funding round with an $852 billion post-money valuation, signaling strong private market support but no confirmed IPO date, which initially boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%10%
OpenAI announced a massive funding round closing at $122 billion with an $852 billion valuation, underscoring its financial strength and fueling speculation about an imminent IPO. This event supported market confidence, with prices peaking at 40% on March 27.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
The closing of a massive funding round at a high valuation underscored OpenAI's financial strength and readiness for a public offering, boosting IPO market optimism.
OpenAI Closes Historic $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%3%
OpenAI officially closed its record-breaking private funding round, increasing pressure on the company to justify its massive valuation as it gears up for a potential IPO.
OpenAI closes record $122B funding round at $852B valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%5%
OpenAI completed a historic $122 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and reinforcing its financial position ahead of a potential IPO. This event heightened investor anticipation for a late 2026 public listing.
OpenAI valued at $852 billion after $122 billion funding round
December 31, 2026 rises to 53%4%
OpenAI secured $122 billion in funding from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with a valuation of $852 billion, signaling strong financial backing ahead of its anticipated IPO, boosting market confidence for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI Closes Record Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI announced the final close of its record-breaking funding round at $122 billion, up from the $110 billion announced in February, pushing its post-money valuation to $852 billion.
SoftBank secures $40B loan to support OpenAI investment
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
SoftBank took a $40 billion unsecured loan with a 12-month term to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI's funding round, implying confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects within the year to provide liquidity for repayment.
SoftBank takes $40B loan signaling confidence in OpenAI's 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
SoftBank secured a $40 billion unsecured 12-month loan to cover its $30 billion investment commitment in OpenAI, indicating lender confidence that OpenAI's IPO will occur in 2026. This financial move suggested market belief in the company's imminent public offering, positively influencing the December 31, 2026 IPO market outcome.
SoftBank secures $40B loan signaling confidence in OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
SoftBank took a $40 billion unsecured loan to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI, with the loan's short term suggesting lender confidence in OpenAI's anticipated IPO in 2026. This financial move supported market expectations for a late-year public offering.
SoftBank takes $40 billion loan linked to OpenAI investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%4%
SoftBank secured a $40 billion unsecured loan to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI's funding round, with a 12-month term suggesting confidence in OpenAI's anticipated IPO within 2026. This financial maneuver indicated market belief in a near-term public offering.
OpenAI flags Microsoft reliance as top risk in pre‑IPO filing
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%5%
OpenAI’s pre‑IPO filing listed Microsoft as a top risk after a $50 bn exclusive‑cloud deal with AWS raised speculation of a partnership strain. The risk disclosure coincided with a dip from 41% on Mar 18 to 36% on Mar 25.
OpenAI announces shutdown of Sora video app amid strategic refocus
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%3%
OpenAI decided to shut down its standalone Sora AI video app due to high operational costs and shifting priorities towards core AI products and enterprise focus. This move was interpreted as part of the company's effort to streamline operations ahead of its IPO, impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI Shuts Down Standalone Sora App and Unwinds Disney Partnership
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
OpenAI announced the shutdown of its standalone Sora video app and unwound its landmark partnership with Disney, signaling a hard pivot toward enterprise and AGI development ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI secures additional $10 billion in funding amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 35%5%
OpenAI announced an extra $10 billion commitment from investors including Microsoft and Andreessen Horowitz, bolstering its capital ahead of a potential IPO and indicating strong investor support despite internal concerns about IPO readiness.
OpenAI secures an extra $10 billion in record funding round, CFO confirms
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
OpenAI announced an additional $10 billion raised, bringing its total funding round to $120 billion, reinforcing financial strength and IPO readiness despite ongoing cash burn concerns.
OpenAI raises additional $10 billion, bringing funding round to $120 billion
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%1%
OpenAI secured an extra $10 billion in funding, surpassing its initial $100 billion target and bringing total funding to $120 billion. CFO Sarah Friar indicated this could be the last private round before a blockbuster IPO, reinforcing market expectations for a late 2026 public offering and impacting the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
OpenAI tempers infrastructure spending ahead of IPO amid market concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI announced a more measured infrastructure strategy, moving away from aggressive spending plans to address Wall Street concerns ahead of its IPO. This cautious approach aimed to improve financial stability perceptions but also highlighted challenges, contributing to market skepticism and price volatility for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
OpenAI plans to nearly double workforce to 8,000 by end-2026
OpenAI announced plans to almost double its workforce, signaling aggressive growth and preparation for scaling operations, which supports expectations of a significant corporate event like an IPO.
OpenAI holds informal talks with Wall Street banks about potential IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
By March 2026, OpenAI was reported to be in informal discussions with major Wall Street banks regarding a potential IPO, signaling serious intent to go public in late 2026. This news maintained market interest but no formal IPO filing was made yet.
OpenAI acquires developer tooling startup Astral
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral, a developer tooling startup, to bolster its Codex AI coding assistant. This move reinforced OpenAI's commitment to expanding its AI ecosystem, contributing to a price increase in late March.
OpenAI acquires Python toolmaker Astral to boost AI coding capabilities
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral, a startup specializing in Python developer tools, to strengthen its AI coding assistant Codex. This move underscored OpenAI's commitment to enterprise and developer markets ahead of its IPO, reinforcing its competitive position against rivals and supporting the December 31, 2026 IPO outlook.
OpenAI to acquire developer‑tool startup Astral
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral, a developer‑tools startup, positioning the move as part of a push to strengthen its Codex coding assistant. The announcement coincided with the market’s second‑largest rally for the December 31, 2026 outcome, lifting the price from 44 % on Mar 14 to 51 % on Mar 24.
Index firms consider rule changes for trillion-dollar IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%2%
Major index providers discussed revising rules to accommodate massive IPOs like OpenAI's, signaling market readiness for its public debut and positively impacting the December 31, 2026 IPO market.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets IPO by end of 2026 amid 900M ChatGPT users
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
Multiple credible reports from CNBC and Tech in Asia confirmed OpenAI's plan to go public by the end of 2026, highlighting the company's explosive user growth and strategic transition to public markets. This news reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, influencing price movements.
OpenAI signals IPO could happen as soon as Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for an IPO potentially in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a focus on repositioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool to attract enterprise investors, supporting market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO signals focus on productivity and enterprise ahead of potential Q4 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI's CEO of Applications emphasized the company's strategic focus on productivity tools and enterprise market share, signaling readiness for a potential IPO in the fourth quarter. This statement reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI preps for IPO in 2026, says ChatGPT must be 'productivity tool'
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%7%
A CNBC report confirmed OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO in late 2026, citing strategic shifts and market positioning.
OpenAI prepares for potential Q4 2026 IPO, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's preparations for a possible IPO in late 2026, emphasizing enterprise revenue growth and clearer spending targets. This bolstered market confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO, reflected in rising prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reportedly preps for IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
A report in March 2026 indicated OpenAI’s IPO could occur as soon as Q4 2026, with the company emphasizing its enterprise business and clearer spending targets. This news sustained market interest but did not confirm a firm IPO date, reflecting cautious optimism.
OpenAI signals potential Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications announced aggressive orientation towards high-productivity enterprise use cases and confirmed the company could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026. This statement increased market expectations for a 2026 IPO, reflecting strategic shifts to boost revenue and competitiveness.
OpenAI CEO signals potential Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications, Fidji Simo, announced at an all-hands meeting that the company is aggressively orienting towards enterprise productivity tools and could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026. This official internal communication heightened market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
Reports confirm OpenAI preparing for IPO in fourth quarter of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%4%
Multiple credible sources reported OpenAI is gearing up for a Q4 2026 IPO, including informal talks with Wall Street banks and staffing expansions. This news reinforced market expectations for a December 31, 2026 IPO, supporting price gains.
OpenAI signals potential IPO in Q4 2026 amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 42%4%
OpenAI publicly indicated it could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026, emphasizing a strategic shift towards enterprise business to support IPO ambitions. This announcement raised market expectations for a late-year IPO, contributing to a price increase around mid-March.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise focus and funding success
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
Multiple sources including CNBC and PYMNTS reported that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO by the end of 2026, emphasizing enterprise applications and backed by recent large funding rounds. This consolidated market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI Expands Enterprise Focus and Hires Finance Executives
OpenAI aggressively expanded its enterprise business and hired key finance executives to prepare its internal structures for a potential market debut, reinforcing the late 2026 timeline.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO as ChatGPT pivots to enterprise applications
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's plan to launch an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, coinciding with a strategic shift to focus ChatGPT on enterprise productivity. This pivot and IPO timeline announcement helped solidify market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI focuses on enterprise applications as it preps for Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI publicly emphasized pivoting ChatGPT towards enterprise productivity tools, aligning with its IPO preparations. The company reported 900 million weekly active users and was investing heavily in enterprise business, aiming to strengthen revenue streams ahead of a potential Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO urges shift to productivity focus as IPO preparations accelerate
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications held an all-hands meeting emphasizing transforming ChatGPT into a workplace productivity tool, reflecting a strategic pivot to enterprise use cases. This was part of broader IPO preparations targeting Q4 2026, signaling the company's intent to scale revenue and market appeal.
OpenAI signals Q4 2026 IPO as ChatGPT pivots to enterprise applications
December 31, 2026 rises to 53%4%
Reports indicated OpenAI is preparing for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, focusing on enterprise business growth, which increased market confidence in the IPO timing.
OpenAI Preps for Potential 2026 IPO with Renewed Focus on Enterprise Business
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated that OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO that could land as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, while shifting its focus toward enterprise productivity tools.
OpenAI prepares for IPO, emphasizes ChatGPT as productivity tool
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
OpenAI publicly indicated preparations for a potential IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth and positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool. This announcement reinforced the company's IPO timeline but also highlighted competitive pressures and spending discipline challenges.
OpenAI confirms IPO preparations targeting Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
A report confirmed OpenAI's preparations for an IPO potentially as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, including staffing up and focusing on enterprise growth, reinforcing market expectations for a year-end IPO.
OpenAI Preps for 2026 IPO with Enterprise Focus and Key Finance Hires
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%6%
OpenAI confirmed it could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026, aggressively orienting ChatGPT toward enterprise productivity while building out its investor relations and finance teams.
OpenAI prepares for IPO in late 2026 amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
CNBC reported OpenAI's IPO could land as soon as Q4 2026, with the company investing in enterprise business and outlining clearer spending targets, sustaining moderate market optimism but not enough to reverse overall downward trend.
OpenAI confirms Q4 2026 IPO target amid enterprise pivot
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
OpenAI announced plans to launch its IPO as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, emphasizing a strategic shift towards enterprise applications to strengthen its market position ahead of going public. This announcement increased market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI prepares for Q4 2026 IPO, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
CNBC reported OpenAI's IPO could occur as soon as Q4 2026, with the company emphasizing enterprise business expansion to compete with rivals, reinforcing market expectations for a year-end IPO and supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI confirms IPO preparations for late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%1%
OpenAI publicly acknowledged preparations for an IPO potentially as soon as Q4 2026, emphasizing its enterprise business expansion to support the upcoming public offering. This confirmation sustained market confidence in a December 31, 2026 IPO, maintaining elevated price levels.
OpenAI renews focus on enterprise business amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications announced an aggressive orientation towards high-productivity enterprise use cases, aligning with the company's IPO preparations and reinforcing investor confidence in a Q4 2026 public debut.
OpenAI CEO signals aggressive pivot to enterprise ahead of potential Q4 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications, Fidji Simo, held an all-hands meeting emphasizing a strategic shift towards high-productivity enterprise use cases as the company prepares for a potential IPO in Q4 2026. This refocus on enterprise business was seen as critical to justify valuation and drive revenue growth, impacting market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO timing.
OpenAI prepares for IPO, focusing on enterprise growth and spending targets
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%3%
OpenAI emphasized enterprise revenue growth and clearer spending targets as it prepares for a potential IPO in late 2026, signaling readiness to public markets and impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI says IPO could land in Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%9%
OpenAI told reporters the company could file for an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, reinforcing market expectations of a late‑2026 listing and triggering a sharp rise in the December‑31‑2026 contract price.
OpenAI emphasizes ChatGPT as a productivity tool amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI publicly stated its focus on positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool while outlining clearer spending targets. This was part of broader efforts to stabilize finances and appeal to investors ahead of a potential Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI launches two lightweight AI models to sharpen focus ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
On March 17, 2026, OpenAI launched two new lightweight AI models aimed at enhancing its core business and enterprise offerings. This product strategy was part of the company's efforts to boost market position and revenue streams in preparation for a Q4 IPO, positively influencing investor sentiment.
OpenAI confirms potential IPO in Q4 2026 with enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
OpenAI announced it could launch its IPO as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, emphasizing a strategic pivot towards enterprise applications and productivity tools. This announcement, including an all-hands meeting led by CEO Fidji Simo, signaled a clear path to going public and refocused company priorities, positively impacting the market's outlook for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
OpenAI confirms IPO could occur as soon as Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
A source familiar with the matter revealed that OpenAI's IPO might happen in the fourth quarter of 2026, reinforcing market expectations and causing price stabilization around this timeline.
OpenAI in talks for $10 billion AI venture with private equity firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
OpenAI entered advanced discussions with private equity firms including TPG, Brookfield, and Bain Capital to form a joint venture aimed at expanding AI adoption. This move indicated OpenAI's strategic efforts to strengthen its enterprise business ahead of a potential IPO, supporting market confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI in advanced talks with private equity firms for enterprise AI joint venture
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI engaged with major private equity firms to form a joint venture aimed at distributing its enterprise AI products, signaling strategic moves to boost enterprise adoption ahead of a potential IPO. This development suggested increased corporate backing and market readiness for OpenAI's public offering by late 2026.
OpenAI in talks with private equity for enterprise AI venture
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
OpenAI engaged with private equity firms to form a joint venture for enterprise AI distribution, indicating strategic moves to expand market reach ahead of IPO, impacting investor sentiment positively for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CEO announces strategic pivot to enterprise applications ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%11%
At an all-hands meeting on March 16, 2026, OpenAI's CEO of Applications, Fidji Simo, announced a shift focusing on high-productivity enterprise use cases, pausing other projects to prepare for a Q4 IPO. This strategic repositioning aimed to strengthen revenue streams and market confidence ahead of the public offering.
OpenAI Outlines Enterprise Pivot and Pauses Side Projects in All-Hands Meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
OpenAI held an all-hands meeting where executives detailed a strategic shift to pause consumer-focused 'side quests' and aggressively target high-productivity enterprise use cases to build a defensible revenue stream ahead of its IPO.
Reports reveal internal disagreement on IPO timing and AI spending at OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%6%
Reports emerged of strategic disagreements between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar regarding the timing of the IPO and the scale of AI compute investments, creating uncertainty about the IPO timeline and contributing to price decline from 44% to 38%.
OpenAI announces acquisition of developer-tool startup Astral
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
The acquisition of Astral was seen as a strategic move to strengthen OpenAI's product offerings ahead of its IPO, boosting market optimism and raising the December 31, 2026 IPO probability significantly.
OpenAI circulates IPO prospectus-like document signaling Q4 2026 debut
In March 2026, OpenAI circulated a document resembling an IPO prospectus to investors, indicating a likely public offering in Q4 2026 with a target valuation between $830 billion and $1 trillion. This was a clear signal of the company's intent to go public, impacting market expectations positively for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Sam Altman Acknowledges Data Center Challenges at BlackRock Infrastructure Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%1%
At BlackRock's U.S. Infrastructure Summit, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discussed severe weather disruptions and supply chain challenges at the Stargate data center campus, highlighting the practical difficulties of scaling infrastructure.
OpenAI Renews Focus on Enterprise and Outlines Clearer Spending Targets
OpenAI held an all-hands meeting emphasizing enterprise growth and tempered its reckless spending approach to satisfy Wall Street concerns ahead of its planned late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI spokesperson reiterates IPO not current focus despite preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Despite ongoing preparations and market speculation, OpenAI publicly stated that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, reinforcing uncertainty and contributing to the market discounting earlier IPO dates in favor of later possibilities.
OpenAI acquires AI security startup Promptfoo to safeguard AI agents
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%2%
OpenAI acquired Promptfoo, a cybersecurity startup focused on securing AI agents, enhancing its enterprise platform OpenAI Frontier. This acquisition reflects OpenAI's strategic emphasis on secure, enterprise-grade AI solutions ahead of its IPO, supporting investor confidence in its business model for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
OpenAI’s IPO timing remains uncertain amid market volatility and funding efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
By early March 2026, despite ongoing preparations and fundraising, OpenAI had not announced a firm IPO date, and market volatility coupled with funding uncertainties caused a further decline in confidence for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome. This reflected persistent doubts about the company’s readiness to go public by mid-2026.
Investor skepticism grows over OpenAI’s cash burn and IPO timing
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports highlighted OpenAI’s massive cash burn and ongoing fundraising needs, raising doubts about the IPO timing and valuation. This skepticism contributed to a decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO, reflected in the falling price for that outcome.
OpenAI acquires AI security platform Promptfoo
OpenAI's acquisition of Promptfoo in early March enhanced its AI security capabilities, signaling operational scaling but not directly impacting IPO timing, thus having moderate market influence.
OpenAI acquires cybersecurity startup Promptfoo to enhance AI agent security
December 31, 2026 rises to 42%2%
OpenAI's acquisition of Promptfoo, an AI security startup, demonstrated its strategic expansion and strengthening of AI capabilities, supporting its growth narrative ahead of a potential IPO.
Investor skepticism grows over OpenAI's high valuation and profitability ahead of IPO
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports highlighted investor concerns about OpenAI's high valuation and ongoing cash burn, tempering enthusiasm and causing a decline in market pricing for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI faces skepticism over IPO timing amid high cash burn and competition
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Despite preparations, analysts and investors expressed doubts about OpenAI's ability to IPO in 2026 due to its high cash burn, competition from Anthropic, and ongoing legal challenges, tempering market enthusiasm.
SoftBank seeks up to $40 billion loan to fund OpenAI investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 42%3%
SoftBank's pursuit of a large loan to finance its investment in OpenAI underscored strong investor confidence and the strategic importance of OpenAI's upcoming IPO.
OpenAI tops $25 billion in annualized revenue, expands enterprise partnerships
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue and partnered with major consulting firms to scale enterprise AI deployments, strengthening its financial outlook and IPO prospects.
Reports highlight OpenAI’s ongoing preparations for late 2026 IPO amid competition
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%9%
News surfaced that OpenAI was accelerating IPO preparations for Q4 2026, including hiring finance executives and engaging in talks with banks, amid rivalry with Anthropic and SpaceX. This sustained market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO date.
Market uncertainty and competition temper OpenAI IPO enthusiasm
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%4%
Despite strong IPO signals, concerns about OpenAI's profitability and competition from rivals like Anthropic caused price volatility and a slight decline from 42% to 38%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment about the late 2026 IPO.
Market skepticism grows as OpenAI's IPO price expectations face uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
In early March 2026, market confidence in OpenAI's December 31, 2026, IPO option declined sharply amid concerns about the company's high cash burn and uncertain path to profitability. This skepticism was reflected in a significant price drop in the prediction market.
OpenAI Selects Law Firms Cooley and Wachtell for IPO Preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%6%
OpenAI advanced its listing plans by selecting prominent law firms to handle its IPO preparation, signaling concrete steps toward going public.
OpenAI tops $25B in annualized revenue, fueling IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%6%
The Information reported OpenAI reached $25 billion in annualized revenue, a 17% increase from prior figures, bolstering confidence in the company's growth prospects and supporting the December 31, 2026 IPO market.
OpenAI reports 900 million weekly active users and $110 billion funding secured
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%6%
OpenAI announced reaching 900 million weekly active users and securing $110 billion in funding, highlighting strong user growth and financial backing that support its late 2026 IPO plans. This reinforced market confidence despite some price volatility.
OpenAI secures $200 million Pentagon AI contract
OpenAI landed a $200 million AI contract with the Pentagon, demonstrating strong government support and validating its growth prospects. This contract likely contributed to sustained market confidence in OpenAI's long-term value and its December 31, 2026 IPO chances.
The Information: OpenAI’s $100 B raise stalls, IPO outlook dimmed
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
The Information disclosed that OpenAI’s anticipated $100 billion funding round was delayed, with sources saying the company had not secured the full capital by early March. The setback lowered confidence in an imminent IPO, dragging the "June 30, 2026" likelihood down to 2 % by Mar 9 2026.
OpenAI hires public-market veterans to prepare for Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
OpenAI strengthened its finance team by hiring a chief accounting officer and a corporate business finance officer, signaling serious preparations for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO.
OpenAI faces investor skepticism over high IPO valuation and cash burn
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
In early March 2026, reports highlighted investor concerns about OpenAI's high IPO valuation near $850 billion to $1 trillion and its substantial cash burn, causing some market price volatility and uncertainty about IPO success.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid cash burn concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Investor concerns about OpenAI's high cash burn and uncertain profitability path led to a sharp decline in the market's perceived likelihood of a mid-2026 IPO, reflected in the June 30, 2026 price falling to near 2-4%. This indicated growing doubts about an IPO happening by mid-2026.
OpenAI confirms $110 billion valuation, eyes largest US tech IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 49%5%
Following the funding announcement, OpenAI confirmed its $110 billion valuation, positioning it for potentially the largest US tech IPO ever, which sustained high market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports confirm OpenAI targeting $100 billion fundraising in early 2026 ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%5%
By late February 2026, OpenAI was reported to be raising $100 billion to fund its AI infrastructure and extend runway before IPO, reflecting the company's massive capital needs and influencing market pricing for the December 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%7%
On March 31, 2026, OpenAI announced closing a $122 billion funding round, the largest private financing in Silicon Valley history, boosting valuation to $852 billion and fueling IPO expectations for late 2026.
OpenAI closes $110 billion funding round at $730 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in new investment including $50 billion from Amazon, raising its valuation to $730 billion. This massive funding round supported the company's growth and IPO preparations, boosting market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO possibility.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%22%
OpenAI announced the close of a $122 billion funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital raise increased investor confidence in the company's financial strength and likelihood of a 2026 IPO, driving up the price for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest private funding round
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%22%
OpenAI announced a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, involving major investors like Amazon and SoftBank. This massive capital infusion underscored the company's growth but also highlighted ongoing cash burn, impacting IPO timing speculation.
OpenAI Closes Historic $110 Billion Funding Round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%11%
OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion private funding round from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank. The influx of private capital reduced the immediate pressure to launch an IPO early in the year, stabilizing late 2026 expectations.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%12%
OpenAI announced a massive funding round in late February, boosting its valuation and signaling strong financial backing ahead of a potential IPO, which increased market confidence in a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI raises $110 billion in blockbuster funding round ahead of expected IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%11%
OpenAI announced a massive $110 billion funding round including investments from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $840 billion. This funding round, completed in late February, significantly increased market optimism about OpenAI's ability to go public by the end of 2026.
OpenAI finalizes $110 billion funding round at $730 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 30%5%
OpenAI raised $110 billion in a funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, valuing the company at $730 billion. This record funding bolstered its AI development and set the stage for a potential IPO later in 2026, increasing market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI Confirms $110 Billion Funding Round at $730 Billion Pre-Money Valuation
OpenAI confirmed a massive $110 billion funding round with backing from major tech giants, solidifying its financial foundation ahead of its public market ambitions.
Microsoft and OpenAI Reaffirm Partnership Terms Amid New Funding Rounds
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%7%
Microsoft and OpenAI issued a joint statement clarifying that their commercial relationship and exclusive API hosting terms remain unchanged despite OpenAI's new funding and cloud partnerships.
OpenAI announces $110 billion funding round at $730 billion pre-money valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
OpenAI disclosed a massive funding round including investments from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, boosting valuation and market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, reflected in a price jump for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Amazon’s $35B investment contingent on OpenAI IPO or AGI achievement by year-end
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
Reports revealed that $35 billion of Amazon’s investment in OpenAI was contingent on the company either achieving Artificial General Intelligence or completing an IPO by the end of 2026, adding pressure for a timely public offering. This news influenced market pricing toward the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI confirms $110 billion valuation fueling largest US tech IPO expectations
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%2%
OpenAI announced a $110 billion valuation, positioning it for one of the largest US tech IPOs if it proceeds. This bolstered market optimism, maintaining elevated prices around 42-44%.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $730 billion valuation in largest private funding round
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%23%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in new investment, including $50 billion from Amazon, pushing its valuation to $730 billion. This massive funding round underscored the company's capital needs and delayed urgency for an IPO.
OpenAI closes $110B funding round at $730B valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 52%21%
In February 2026, OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion funding round led by major investors including Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, valuing the company at $730 billion. This infusion was seen as a bridge to the IPO, supporting the company's financial runway amid high cash burn and fueling optimism about a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI updates partnership with Microsoft and reports strong revenue growth
December 31, 2026 surges to 44%18%
OpenAI revised its partnership with Microsoft and reported $2 billion monthly revenue, with enterprise revenue growing rapidly. Despite strong fundamentals, no IPO filing was made, sustaining market uncertainty and price volatility.
OpenAI Secures Record-Breaking $110 Billion Private Funding Round
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%10%
OpenAI finalized a massive $110 billion funding round from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, which solidified its financial war chest and set the stage for its public market narrative.
OpenAI confirms $110B valuation after massive $110B private funding round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI announced a $110 billion valuation following one of the largest private funding rounds in history, reinforcing expectations of a record-setting IPO. This bolstered market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO timing, reflected in price increases.
OpenAI closes record $110 billion funding round at $730 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 49%19%
OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $730 billion. This funding round underscored the company's capital needs and increased the likelihood of a 2026 IPO to sustain growth and infrastructure investments.
OpenAI announces strategic partnerships and funding boosts
OpenAI struck a deal with the Pentagon and announced a partnership with Amazon, alongside raising $110 billion in funding. These developments underscored OpenAI's growth and capital needs, setting the stage for future IPO considerations and positively influencing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
Amazon's $50 billion OpenAI investment may depend on IPO or AGI milestone
December 31, 2026 drops to 48%6%
Reports indicated Amazon's planned $50 billion investment in OpenAI is contingent on the company achieving an IPO or an AGI milestone, highlighting the IPO's critical role in funding and valuation.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app as part of IPO preparation strategy
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic focus shift ahead of its anticipated 2026 IPO, which influenced investor sentiment and price adjustments.
Nvidia nears $30 billion investment in OpenAI during fundraising round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
Nvidia's planned $30 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a $100 billion+ fundraising round underscored OpenAI's ongoing capital needs ahead of a potential IPO, influencing market perceptions of the company's financial strategy.
OpenAI targets $600 billion compute spend through 2030, lays IPO groundwork
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%6%
OpenAI disclosed plans for massive compute spending and laid groundwork for an IPO potentially valuing the company at up to $1 trillion, reinforcing market expectations for a future public offering.
Market concerns rise over OpenAI’s high operating losses and funding needs
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Around late February 2026, reports highlighted OpenAI’s $20.9 billion operating losses in 2025 and ongoing massive funding requirements, raising investor concerns about profitability and sustainability. This led to a decline in market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting skepticism about an earlier IPO.
OpenAI resets spend expectations, targets $600 billion compute spend by 2030
December 31, 2026 rises to 55%3%
OpenAI revised its infrastructure spending target down from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion by 2030, aligning spending with expected revenue growth and addressing investor concerns ahead of IPO.
Nvidia nears $30 billion investment in OpenAI funding round
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%1%
In February 2026, Nvidia was reported to be close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a larger $100 billion fundraising round. This significant capital injection was expected to support OpenAI's infrastructure and growth, positively impacting market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Nvidia in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI at $730 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%5%
Nvidia entered discussions to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a funding round valuing the company at approximately $730 billion, bolstering OpenAI's capital ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI nears $100 billion funding deal at over $850 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI was close to finalizing a $100 billion funding round with a valuation exceeding $850 billion. This massive capital raise underscored strong investor backing and the company's preparation for a late 2026 IPO, supporting market optimism for the December 31, 2026, outcome.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising push
News confirmed OpenAI's plan for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO alongside a $100 billion funding round, highlighting both the company's growth ambitions and financial challenges. This sustained investor interest, maintaining prices above 50%.
OpenAI nears $100B funding deal at $850B+ valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
Bloomberg reported OpenAI was close to finalizing a $100 billion funding round at a valuation exceeding $850 billion, reflecting strong investor demand and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI's valuation and fundraising ambitions fuel IPO optimism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%6%
In mid-February 2026, reports emphasized OpenAI's valuation estimates between $800 billion and $1 trillion and its plans for a $100 billion fundraising round to support massive infrastructure projects. These factors contributed to a peak in market confidence for the December 31, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI valuation hits $830 billion with $100 billion funding sought
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%26%
Reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, suggesting a massive IPO valuation and supporting market interest in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw to enhance AI agent capabilities
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%22%
OpenAI acquired OpenClaw, an AI agent startup, signaling a strategic investment in autonomous AI workflows ahead of its IPO. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's commitment to expanding its AI ecosystem, positively influencing market views on its growth prospects.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw, signaling shift toward autonomous AI agents
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
OpenAI acquired OpenClaw in mid-February 2026, emphasizing a strategic focus on autonomous AI agents and workflow orchestration. This acquisition highlighted OpenAI's commitment to innovation and market leadership ahead of its planned IPO, supporting positive market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI's valuation projected near $1 trillion ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
Analysts and reports projected OpenAI's valuation to approach $1 trillion, driven by rapid revenue growth and enterprise adoption. This valuation milestone heightened market enthusiasm for the IPO, sustaining elevated price levels in mid-February.
OpenAI Reportedly Targets Q4 2026 IPO Amid $600 Billion Infrastructure Plan
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%5%
Reports surfaced that CEO Sam Altman is pushing for an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 to fund a massive $600 billion compute expansion, despite internal concerns from the CFO about cash burn.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app to sharpen focus on enterprise ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%5%
OpenAI announced the shutdown of its standalone Sora video‑generation app, signalling a strategic shift toward enterprise products ahead of the IPO. The news coincided with a modest price uptick in early February as investors interpreted the move as a focus on higher‑margin revenue streams.
OpenAI CFO announces plan to reserve IPO shares for retail investors
December 31, 2026 jumps to 49%6%
CFO Sarah Friar stated that OpenAI would allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, indicating preparations for a public offering and appealing to a broad investor base. This announcement supported a price peak at 49%.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%5%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic focus on core products ahead of its anticipated IPO. This move was interpreted as a step to streamline operations, positively influencing the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Reports highlight OpenAI’s aggressive fundraising and $100 billion capital expenditure plans
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%6%
Reports in early 2026 detailed OpenAI’s plans to raise $100 billion to fund its massive AI infrastructure expansion, including the Stargate Project. These financial moves increased confidence in the company’s ability to sustain growth ahead of a potential IPO later in 2026.
OpenAI Restructures into Dual Structure and Removes 'Safely' from Mission Statement
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%7%
OpenAI removed the word 'safely' from its mission statement and split into a nonprofit foundation and a for-profit public-benefit corporation. This restructuring was designed to attract massive private investment and clear the path for a future public listing.
Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO amid competition and funding needs
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
A WSJ report revealed OpenAI's plans for a late-2026 IPO to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, intensifying market enthusiasm and pushing prices to a peak of 52%.
OpenAI CFO warns IPO may be premature, cites compliance gaps
December 31, 2026 surges to 51%20%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly expressed doubts about the company’s readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing regulatory and procedural hurdles. The caution triggered a market rebound from the low‑28% level to 31% on Feb 6, then a swift rise to 51% by Feb 7 as investors reassessed the timeline.
Reports of OpenAI accelerating IPO preparations amid competition with Anthropic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%11%
Reports indicated OpenAI was accelerating IPO preparations for late 2026, holding informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, driven by competition with Anthropic and the need to address cash burn. This briefly boosted market confidence.
OpenAI finalizes conversion to Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
OpenAI's conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation eased structural risks related to going public, positively influencing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product ahead of IPO filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%10%
OpenAI introduced long-term compute commitments, signaling business maturity and readiness for public markets, which supported market optimism for a September 2026 IPO.
Rumors intensify of OpenAI targeting late 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%13%
Market reports and rumors in early February 2026 suggested OpenAI was preparing for a historic IPO in late 2026 with a target valuation of $1 trillion. The company was aggressively hiring public market veterans, signaling serious IPO preparations, which increased market optimism for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI hires key finance executives and holds informal IPO talks with Wall Street banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
In early February 2026, OpenAI accelerated IPO preparations by hiring a chief accounting officer and business finance officer, and engaging in informal discussions with Wall Street banks, signaling serious intent for a Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI targets $1 trillion valuation for late 2026 IPO amid finance hiring spree
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%13%
OpenAI's aggressive hiring of public-market veterans and targeting a Q4 2026 IPO with a $1 trillion valuation signaled strong commitment to going public, boosting market confidence in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI aggressively hires public-market veterans ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%11%
OpenAI appointed a new Chief Accounting Officer and expanded its finance team, reinforcing market expectations of a late 2026 IPO. This hiring spree supported the narrative of imminent public offering, pushing prices higher to 53%.
Reports intensify on OpenAI's $1 trillion valuation and late 2026 IPO target
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%9%
By early February 2026, rumors and reports intensified about OpenAI targeting a late 2026 IPO with a valuation around $1 trillion. The company’s aggressive hiring of public-market veterans and fundraising efforts supported these expectations, driving the market price up significantly.
Rumors intensify of OpenAI IPO in late 2026 with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%20%
Reports suggested OpenAI was preparing for a late 2026 IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, fueling market speculation and causing some price volatility in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI signals strong IPO intent with aggressive hiring and spending targets
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%22%
OpenAI outlined clearer spending targets and invested heavily in enterprise business growth, signaling preparation for a late 2026 IPO. This bolstered market optimism temporarily, reflected in a price increase for the December 31, 2026, IPO option.
Rumors intensify of OpenAI preparing for late 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 49%10%
Market reports and analyst commentary in early February 2026 reinforced expectations of a late 2026 IPO, with OpenAI aggressively hiring public market veterans and targeting a historic valuation. This news caused a temporary price rebound reflecting renewed optimism.
OpenAI hires public-market veterans signaling imminent IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
In early February 2026, OpenAI's aggressive hiring of finance and public-market veterans was reported as a strong signal of an impending IPO, reinforcing market confidence in a late 2026 public listing. This contributed to a peak in market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Reports intensify that OpenAI is preparing for a late 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation target
December 31, 2026 surges to 47%17%
Rumors and reports emerged that OpenAI is gearing up for a historic IPO in late 2026, targeting a valuation of $1 trillion, supported by aggressive hiring of finance veterans and competition with Anthropic.
Reports highlight OpenAI's massive fundraising and Q4 IPO plans
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%11%
News surfaced that OpenAI was in a massive fundraising push and targeting a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, testing investor tolerance amid high cash burn, which further increased market optimism about the IPO happening by year-end.
Scott Galloway warns OpenAI IPO could be pulled amid investor skepticism
Marketing professor Scott Galloway expressed concerns about OpenAI's IPO prospects, citing eroding competitive advantages and brand perception issues. His warning introduced caution among investors, reflecting some market volatility and skepticism about the IPO's timing and valuation.
OpenAI plans to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to cover funding gap
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%23%
OpenAI announced plans to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to address massive projected losses and fund its AI infrastructure, reinforcing the expectation of a late 2026 IPO.
Wall Street analysts start informal $1 trillion valuations for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%6%
Analyst notes from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs surfaced that they were informally valuing OpenAI at $1 trillion and expecting a Q4 2026 filing. The upbeat coverage prompted a second surge, pushing the "December 31, 2026" price to a record 54 % on Feb 5 2026.
OpenAI raises market optimism with $100 billion fundraising plans
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is taking action in early 2026 to raise $100 billion to fill funding gaps, temporarily boosting market confidence and prices for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Market optimism surges on reports of imminent confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%22%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes, reflecting growing confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI's market optimism surges on IPO speculation and fundraising
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%21%
Market prices for the December 31, 2026 IPO option surged sharply as investors reacted to ongoing fundraising efforts and positive speculation about OpenAI's IPO prospects in late 2026.
Nvidia CEO confirms plans to invest in OpenAI's next funding round and eventual IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%14%
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated in a CNBC interview that Nvidia would consider investing in OpenAI's next fundraising round and its eventual IPO. This endorsement from a key technology partner reinforced investor confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, contributing to positive market sentiment.
Nvidia CEO confirms potential investment in OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%1%
Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated the company would consider investing in OpenAI's IPO, reinforcing confidence in the upcoming public offering and supporting the market's positive outlook for the December 31, 2026 IPO date.
Nvidia CEO says company may invest in OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%13%
Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated willingness to invest in OpenAI's upcoming IPO, signaling confidence from a major AI hardware player and boosting market sentiment about the IPO's likelihood and valuation.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest capital raise ever
December 31, 2026 rises to 50%1%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round, the largest in Silicon Valley history, boosting its valuation and increasing speculation about a 2026 IPO, which positively influenced market confidence.
Nvidia CEO signals potential investment in OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%25%
Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated the company would consider investing in OpenAI's upcoming fundraising and IPO, reinforcing confidence in OpenAI's public offering prospects. This endorsement from a key AI hardware partner positively influenced market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
SpaceX acquires xAI in record-setting deal ahead of IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Elon Musk's SpaceX acquired AI startup xAI, creating the world's most valuable private company and intensifying competition in AI IPOs, potentially impacting OpenAI's market positioning.
OpenAI initiates $100 billion fundraising to fill funding gap before IPO
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
OpenAI began a major fundraising effort to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to support its massive capital expenditures and extend runway before an IPO. This financial pressure contributed to market skepticism about an imminent IPO, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome, which saw prices drop significantly.
Kalshi market prices near 100% probability for OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%23%
Kalshi prediction market contracts for an OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026, reached maximum value, reflecting strong market consensus early in the year. However, no IPO announcement occurred by that date, leading to later price adjustments.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 43%15%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in a historic funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and reinforcing its financial strength ahead of an IPO. This event caused a sharp price increase from 28% to 43%.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round valuing it at $852 billion
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%9%
OpenAI secured a massive funding round with investments from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting confidence in its valuation and IPO prospects. This funding round was seen as a key step toward a public offering, driving market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO option.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing for a 2026 IPO amid growing AI industry influence
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%5%
Media reports indicated OpenAI might pursue an IPO in 2026 to fund its expensive AI infrastructure and growth, sparking initial market optimism and a price rise from 27% to 32%.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round, fueling IPO expectations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%8%
OpenAI completed the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and valuing the company at $852 billion. This milestone significantly boosted market confidence in a potential IPO by late 2026 or early 2027, driving prices up.
OpenAI Reportedly Targets Q4 2026 IPO in Race Against Anthropic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%9%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is racing toward a fourth-quarter 2026 initial public offering to beat rival Anthropic to the public markets, despite projecting no profits until 2030.
OpenAI accelerates plans for Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising push
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
By January 2026, OpenAI was reported to be accelerating its IPO plans for the fourth quarter of 2026, seeking over $100 billion in pre-IPO private funding to offset significant cash burn on AI infrastructure. This intensified fundraising and IPO preparation heightened market expectations for the December 31, 2026 IPO, reflected in price increases.
OpenAI pushes for Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was racing toward a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO while simultaneously raising $100 billion to cover funding gaps. The company's high cash burn and unprofitability raised investor concerns, impacting market confidence in the June 30, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI's Q4 2026 IPO rumored amid massive fundraising and cash burn
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%14%
Reports indicated OpenAI was targeting a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO despite burning billions annually and raising substantial capital, which raised questions about investor tolerance and IPO timing, causing market volatility.
OpenAI accelerates IPO plans aiming for Q4 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%14%
Reports from the Wall Street Journal and Fortune indicated OpenAI is accelerating its IPO plans to go public in the fourth quarter of 2026, aiming to beat rival Anthropic to market. The company is expanding its finance team and holding informal talks with Wall Street banks, reflecting serious IPO preparations.
Reports of OpenAI raising $100 billion and targeting late 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
News emerged that OpenAI was taking action in early 2026 to raise $100 billion to fund its operations and infrastructure, with a potential IPO targeted for late 2026. This significant fundraising effort and clearer IPO timeline boosted market confidence, causing a sharp price increase.
Reports of OpenAI racing toward Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was accelerating preparations for a late 2026 IPO, including informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, driven by competition with Anthropic and the need to address cash burn. This news caused some price volatility and reflected ongoing uncertainty about timing.
Reports highlight OpenAI's Q4 2026 IPO plans amid massive fundraising push
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%3%
By late January 2026, multiple reports surfaced indicating OpenAI's intention to pursue an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside a massive fundraising effort to raise an additional $100 billion. This news increased market speculation and temporarily boosted the December 31, 2026, IPO market price.
OpenAI CEO announces 'Project Stargate' infrastructure expansion
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%24%
Sam Altman announced a massive $600 billion compute infrastructure expansion called Project Stargate, underscoring the need for public capital and fueling speculation about the IPO timing. This announcement coincided with a peak in market confidence for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI exec fired over sexual‑discrimination claims, IPO odds slip
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
OpenAI fired its VP of Product Policy over sexual‑discrimination allegations. The controversy raised concerns about governance and caused the market’s low point of 23% on Jan 9, dragging the Yes probability down to 28% by Jan 12.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman downplays IPO excitement but confirms future public offering
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%11%
Sam Altman stated he was '0%' excited about leading a public company but confirmed OpenAI’s intention to eventually go public. This tempered enthusiasm contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility for the IPO outcomes.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%26%
OpenAI completed a massive funding round raising $122 billion, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This capital influx was seen as a strong precursor to an IPO, driving a peak in market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI's IPO rumored for Q4 2026 amid investor and market speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 30%1%
By early 2026, rumors intensified that OpenAI's IPO could occur in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the company hiring finance executives and engaging in informal talks with Wall Street banks. Market prices reflected cautious optimism about the IPO timeline and valuation prospects.
OpenAI adds senior finance team ahead of potential IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%21%
Fast Company and the Wall Street Journal disclosed that OpenAI hired a new chief accounting officer and a chief business finance officer to head an investor‑relations function, signalling concrete IPO preparation. The hires lifted the "December 31, 2026" odds, creating a sharp price jump of +21 points on Jan 30 2026.
OpenAI's IPO would test investor tolerance amid high cash burn
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%4%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive cash burn and fundraising needs, raising questions about investor appetite for its IPO. This tempered market enthusiasm, reflected in price volatility for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports of Q4 2026 IPO Target Highlight OpenAI's Massive Cash Burn
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%12%
Analysis of OpenAI's rumored Q4 2026 IPO plans highlighted that the company is burning billions of dollars annually, testing investor tolerance and shifting probability away from earlier 2026 dates.
OpenAI CEO frames trillion-dollar infrastructure thesis in January announcement
December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Sam Altman's January 2026 Stargate announcement emphasized OpenAI's massive infrastructure investment plans, reinforcing investor confidence in the company's long-term growth and IPO potential, contributing to a price peak.
Reports confirm OpenAI plans IPO in Q4 2026 despite high cash burn
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
News reports confirmed OpenAI's intention to go public in the fourth quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing massive fundraising and high cash burn, which introduced investor caution but maintained IPO optimism.
OpenAI shares price peaks amid IPO speculation and strategic updates
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%26%
Investor enthusiasm peaked with a 56% price level for the December 31, 2026, IPO option, reflecting optimism about OpenAI's valuation and timing, before some profit-taking and volatility set in.
OpenAI announces massive $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%23%
In March 2026, OpenAI closed the largest private funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and boosting valuation to $852 billion. This funding was seen as a positive step toward IPO readiness, temporarily supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI Reportedly Targets Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%18%
Reports that OpenAI is racing toward a Q4 2026 IPO to beat rivals and secure funding boosted the probability of a listing by December 31, 2026.
OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising and cash burn concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI was racing toward a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO to raise capital amid billions in annual cash burn, testing investor tolerance for the AI boom. This news maintained some market interest but also highlighted financial risks.
OpenAI pivots ChatGPT to enterprise productivity ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
OpenAI’s internal all‑hands meeting emphasized a shift toward enterprise revenue and signaled that ChatGPT would be marketed as a productivity tool, reinforcing the IPO narrative and contributing to a sharp price jump on Jan 30 (from 32 % to 39 %).
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman highlights $1.4 trillion in deals, fueling IPO optimism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%8%
In January 2026, CEO Sam Altman publicly emphasized OpenAI's massive deal pipeline worth $1.4 trillion over eight years, reinforcing investor confidence in the company's growth prospects and supporting the case for a high-value IPO later in 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI targeting Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%21%
News surfaced that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 while continuing a large fundraising push, highlighting the company's ongoing cash burn and growth ambitions. This report increased market optimism about a late 2026 IPO, reflected in a price jump from 32% to 53%.
OpenAI Accelerates Plans for Q4 2026 IPO to Beat Rival Anthropic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is speeding up its IPO preparations for the fourth quarter of 2026 due to concerns that rival Anthropic might list first, significantly boosting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI accelerates IPO plans targeting Q4 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%12%
In January 2026, OpenAI reportedly accelerated its IPO preparations aiming for a fourth-quarter 2026 public offering. This move was partly to compete with rivals Anthropic and SpaceX, who were also planning IPOs in 2026, and to address investor concerns about the company's cash burn and profitability path.
OpenAI accelerates plans for potential Q4 2026 IPO, begins talks with Wall Street banks
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a fourth-quarter IPO and has started informal discussions with investment banks, signaling serious intent to go public by year-end. This news increased market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI accelerates IPO plans for Q4 2026 amid competition and leadership changes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, hiring finance executives and engaging with Wall Street banks, while facing competition from Anthropic and internal challenges.
OpenAI announces plan for fourth‑quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%7%
A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI planned a fourth‑quarter IPO raised expectations for a late‑2026 listing, briefly lifting the “December 31 2026” probability before it fell again as investors awaited concrete timing.
WSJ says OpenAI is preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%29%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was "laying the groundwork" for a fourth‑quarter 2026 IPO and had begun informal talks with Wall Street banks. The story sparked a dramatic surge in market confidence, pushing the Yes price for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 27 % on Jan 9 to a peak of 56 % on Jan 30.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Targeting a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%25%
Reports emerged indicating that OpenAI was actively planning a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, aiming for a $1 trillion valuation, which revived investor optimism for a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI accelerates IPO plans with Wall Street bank talks and finance team hires
December 31, 2026 surges to 52%20%
OpenAI began informal discussions with Wall Street banks and expanded its finance team, signaling serious intent for a Q4 2026 IPO. This news caused a sharp price increase from 32% to 52%, reflecting heightened market confidence.
OpenAI announces plans for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO
OpenAI publicly indicated intentions to pursue an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, setting initial market expectations for a late-year public offering. This announcement laid the groundwork for subsequent market pricing of the IPO timing.
OpenAI to begin testing ads on ChatGPT in the U.S.
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%6%
OpenAI announced plans to start testing advertisements within ChatGPT for free and Go users in the U.S., aiming to create a new revenue stream to support its infrastructure spending and IPO ambitions.
Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon in Talks to Invest Up to $60 Billion in OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
Reports emerged that major tech giants were in talks to invest tens of billions of dollars in OpenAI, highlighting the company's massive private fundraising efforts which could delay the immediate need for an IPO.
OpenAI Reportedly Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%19%
Reports of a targeted fourth-quarter 2026 IPO window and massive capital requirements solidified expectations for a late 2026 listing rather than an earlier summer debut.
OpenAI Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO and Initiates Talks with Wall Street Banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%11%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is fast-tracking its plans for an initial public offering targeting the fourth quarter of 2026, driving up the probability of a December 31, 2026 resolution.
OpenAI lays groundwork for Q4 2026 IPO with Wall Street bank talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%26%
OpenAI began informal discussions with Wall Street banks about a potential IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, signaling serious intent and driving a sharp price increase from 30% to 56%. This was a critical confirmation of the IPO timeline.
OpenAI lays groundwork for fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, begins talks with Wall Street banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO in Q4 2026, including hiring finance officers and engaging in informal discussions with banks, which boosted market confidence in a year-end IPO.
OpenAI plans $115 billion spending and IPO in 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%11%
Reports detailed OpenAI's plan to spend $115 billion over five years on AI infrastructure, necessitating a large IPO to fund these outlays. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO, boosting prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO emphasizes need to stabilize finances before IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reports highlighted CFO Sarah Friar's concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a public offering due to operational and compliance work needed, suggesting a possible delay beyond 2026. This tempered market optimism and contributed to price declines for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman frames $1 trillion infrastructure spend underpinning IPO case
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%5%
Sam Altman's January 2026 Stargate announcement video emphasized the massive $600 billion compute infrastructure investment over five years, reinforcing investor confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and driving up market prices for late 2026 IPO outcomes.
OpenAI accelerates IPO preparations aiming for late 2026 listing
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a potential IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, with informal talks with Wall Street banks and finance team expansions. This news increased market confidence in a December 31, 2026 IPO, reflected in rising prices from 27% to 31%.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar discusses IPO readiness and business growth at Davos
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%5%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar highlighted the company's rapid growth, increasing enterprise revenue share, and the strategic importance of preparing for a public listing. She emphasized the company's focus on building a strong business model and expanding compute capacity, signaling IPO preparations. This contributed to early market optimism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals company preparing to act like public company
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
CFO Sarah Friar indicated that OpenAI is adopting practices typical of public companies, fueling market expectations for an IPO despite no confirmed date, supporting a price rise.
OpenAI seeks multibillion-dollar investments from Middle East sovereign wealth funds
December 31, 2026 rises to 26%1%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman traveled to the UAE to engage in talks with Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds aiming to secure around $50 billion in new funding, signaling strong investor interest and fueling IPO preparations.
OpenAI CFO signals retail investor share allocation in upcoming IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%3%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve shares for retail investors, indicating serious IPO preparations and broadening potential investor base, supporting a temporary price rebound for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 29% to 32% in January 2026.
OpenAI CFO stresses public‑company hygiene ahead of potential 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
During a Davos interview, Sarah Friar emphasized the public‑company‑like governance and hinted at an IPO “later this year,” reinforcing the market’s belief that the December‑2026 deadline was plausible and helping sustain the price rebound after the March funding news.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness and retail investor share allocation
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated in a CNBC interview that the company plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, emphasizing the importance of acting like a public company. This announcement increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 outcome, as it indicated serious IPO preparations.
OpenAI CFO signals company acting like public firm ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company is preparing to 'look and feel and act' like a public company, indicating IPO preparations. This statement increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness concerns and spending risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI being ready for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and uncertain revenue growth, contributing to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO signals company not ready for 2026 IPO due to spending risks
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%5%
CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing risks from spending commitments and revenue uncertainty. This internal skepticism caused market doubts, contributing to price declines for earlier IPO outcomes.
OpenAI expands global AI use initiative to encourage data center builds
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
OpenAI launched 'OpenAI for Countries' to promote AI adoption worldwide, aiming to increase infrastructure and usage in education, health, and disaster preparedness. This strategic expansion suggested long-term growth potential, supporting IPO speculation.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals retail investor share allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%26%
On January 21, 2026, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar announced plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, indicating preparations for a public offering and boosting market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%2%
CFO Sarah Friar stated in an interview that OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, signaling preparation for a public offering and broadening investor access, which positively influenced market sentiment.
OpenAI CFO announces annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion in 2025
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar revealed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion in 2025, signaling strong financial growth and supporting market optimism about a future IPO. This milestone likely contributed to a slight price increase for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO reports annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion in 2025, signals 2026 focus on practical adoption
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar announced strong revenue growth and a strategic shift toward practical AI adoption in 2026, indicating the company is preparing for sustainable growth and possibly an IPO in late 2026 or 2027, but with cautious optimism due to market conditions.
Elon Musk sues OpenAI and Microsoft seeking up to $134 billion in damages
December 31, 2026 dips to 24%4%
Elon Musk filed a lawsuit claiming OpenAI defrauded him by abandoning its nonprofit mission, demanding substantial damages. This legal challenge introduced uncertainty and risk around OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation, negatively impacting market confidence.
Elon Musk files $79-$134 billion lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%3%
Elon Musk sued OpenAI and Microsoft for up to $134 billion, alleging fraud related to OpenAI's shift from nonprofit to for-profit. This legal challenge added uncertainty and risk to OpenAI's IPO prospects, negatively impacting market confidence.
OpenAI hires advisers for a Q3‑Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 48%17%
OpenAI announced it had hired bankers and lawyers to prepare an IPO, targeting the third or fourth quarter of 2026. The announcement raised market optimism, lifting the Yes‑probability for the December‑31 deadline to a mid‑20s% level.
OpenAI IPO timeline projected for late 2026 or 2027 with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
By mid-January 2026, analysts projected OpenAI's IPO could occur in late 2026 or 2027 with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, reflecting ongoing restructuring and fundraising efforts. The lack of a firm date contributed to continued market uncertainty and a price stabilization around 27%.
Reports indicate OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise and IPO preparations for late 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Mid-January reports revealed OpenAI's plans to raise at least $60 billion to fund its AI ambitions and that it was in early discussions with law firms for an IPO potentially in the second half of 2026. This reinforced market anticipation for a late 2026 IPO, affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI CFO reports 2025 revenue exceeds $20 billion
December 31, 2026 surges to 49%18%
CFO Sarah Friar disclosed that OpenAI’s annualised revenue had topped $20 billion for 2025, confirming rapid growth and fueling speculation that the company could IPO by the end of 2026. Prices rose sharply in early January.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app amid strategic shift towards IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%3%
OpenAI discontinued its standalone Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, as part of a broader strategic realignment ahead of a potential 2026 IPO. This move was seen as a step to streamline operations and focus on core AI products, impacting investor perceptions of IPO readiness.
OpenAI finalizes for-profit Public Benefit Corporation status, targets $60B capital raise
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%4%
OpenAI completed its transition to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation and is targeting a $60 billion capital raise to fund AI development. While this shows progress, the large capital needs and restructuring suggest the IPO is not imminent, reflected in a price drop to 25%.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise, IPO in second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
In mid-January 2026, reports indicated OpenAI was targeting a $60 billion capital raise to fund its AI ambitions and was preparing for an IPO in the second half of 2026. This concrete capital target and timeline underscored the seriousness of IPO plans but also the scale of funding required, contributing to market caution.
SpaceX and OpenAI confirm unified IPO plans for second half of 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Elon Musk confirmed in December 2025 and reports in January 2026 detailed that SpaceX and OpenAI are preparing for IPOs in the second half of 2026, consolidating market expectations around late 2026 IPOs and causing a shift away from earlier dates, reflected in declining prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise in 2026 IPO amid growing AGI ambitions
Reports in mid-January 2026 indicated OpenAI's IPO aims to raise at least $60 billion to fund its expensive Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development. This reinforced the expectation of a large IPO later in 2026, but the timing remained uncertain, leading to continued market caution.
Reports detail OpenAI targeting $60 billion capital raise in 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
Mid-January reports indicated OpenAI's aim to raise at least $60 billion through its 2026 IPO to fund its AGI ambitions, signaling serious preparations and influencing market expectations for a late 2026 offering.
OpenAI targets $60B capital raise for 2026 IPO preparations
June 30, 2026 rises to 6%1%
Reports indicated OpenAI was aiming to raise at least $60 billion to fund its AI ambitions, signaling serious IPO preparations for 2026. This news helped stabilize market prices slightly after prior declines.
OpenAI prepares for public debut amid thawing antitrust climate
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Financial reports noted OpenAI's transition to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation completed in late 2025, with plans to raise at least $60 billion for AI development. The company is in active IPO preparations targeting late 2026 or 2027, influencing market expectations and contributing to price declines as timing remains uncertain.
Reports emerge of OpenAI targeting $60B capital raise ahead of 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
Mid-January reports indicated OpenAI was aiming to raise at least $60 billion to fund its AI development, marking a significant step toward a public offering. This fueled investor anticipation for a late 2026 IPO, contributing to rising market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI continues acquisition spree to bolster AI capabilities
OpenAI announced multiple acquisitions in early 2026, signaling a focus on growth and technology expansion, which could support future IPO valuation but did not directly confirm IPO timing.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence and contributing to a rise in IPO odds.
OpenAI finalizes transition to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, targets 2026 IPO
Reports confirmed OpenAI's corporate restructuring completed in late 2025 and plans for a 2026 IPO, but also noted the company's massive capital needs and ongoing fundraising efforts. This mixed news maintained cautious market sentiment, with prices around 28%.
OpenAI CFO confirms $20 billion revenue run rate by end of 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%3%
OpenAI's CFO confirmed the company surpassed $20 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2025, highlighting rapid growth but also underscoring the need for substantial capital, supporting IPO timing speculation.
OpenAI IPO preparations intensify amid trillion-dollar valuation talk
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%1%
By mid-January 2026, OpenAI's IPO preparations were reported to be intensifying with expectations of a valuation up to $1 trillion, reflecting both investor excitement and the challenges of justifying such a high valuation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight decline in the probability of the IPO completing by year-end 2026.
OpenAI plans massive spending and fundraising ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
The New York Times reported OpenAI plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029, raising concerns about funding needs and IPO timing, contributing to market price volatility and a decline in confidence for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI plans $115 billion spending through 2029 amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive planned expenditures and ongoing restructuring to support a public listing. The scale of spending raised concerns about profitability and IPO timing, contributing to market price declines in early 2026.
Market uncertainty grows amid mega IPOs planned for 2026 including OpenAI
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%5%
Reports in early 2026 highlighted that OpenAI, along with SpaceX and Anthropic, is preparing for a mega IPO in 2026 or 2027, but market uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment led to further declines in IPO probability prices, especially for mid-2026 dates.
Reports highlight OpenAI's potential 2026 IPO amid AI market excitement
News coverage in mid-January emphasized OpenAI as a leading AI company likely to pursue an IPO in 2026, fueling market optimism and contributing to early price increases for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI targets 2027 IPO but could file in late 2026 amid mega-IPO year
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
Reports from The New York Times and others indicated OpenAI is targeting a 2027 IPO but may file for an IPO as early as late 2026, amid a broader mega-IPO wave including SpaceX and Anthropic. This tempered market optimism, reflected in a gradual price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Reports highlight 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
The New York Times reported that OpenAI, valued at $500 billion, is among several tech giants expected to go public in 2026, signaling a potential IPO supercycle and fueling investor anticipation.
OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise to fund AGI development
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is targeting a $60 billion capital raise to fund its pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence, reinforcing its financial strategy and IPO readiness.
2026 may be the year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI and Anthropic were very early in the IPO process, with preparations just beginning and significant uncertainties remaining. This tempered market expectations, contributing to a price decline from 35% to 28% in early January.
OpenAI still early in IPO process, Anthropic begins preparations
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
Reports indicated OpenAI is very early in its IPO preparations, with competitors like Anthropic starting legal preparations. This tempered market expectations for a 2026 IPO, contributing to price declines from 36% to 28%.
CEO Sam Altman expresses lack of enthusiasm for leading public company
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
In a December 2025 podcast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he was "zero percent" excited about leading a public company, signaling internal hesitance about an IPO. This statement contributed to the market's continued decline in IPO probability.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discusses IPO plans and company spending
December 31, 2026 rises to 30%1%
In a December 2025 podcast interview reported in January 2026, CEO Sam Altman expressed mixed feelings about leading a public company but confirmed the need for continued fundraising. OpenAI's planned $115 billion spending through 2029 highlighted the urgency of an IPO, impacting market sentiment positively.
OpenAI CEO confirms company’s ongoing preparations for IPO in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
In a December 2025 podcast, CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the company’s need to raise more funds and its conversion to a for-profit entity, signaling ongoing IPO preparations despite his personal reservations about leading a public company. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with $10 billion computing deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
OpenAI announced a major computing capacity deal with Cerebras, signaling infrastructure expansion and IPO preparation, boosting market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI IPO seen as part of 2026 mega-IPO wave with SpaceX and Anthropic
A New York Times report highlighted OpenAI's transition to a for-profit company and its plans to go public in 2026, framing it as a key part of a historic IPO year alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, reinforcing market anticipation but also caution.
New York Times reports OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 'zero percent' excited about IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
Sam Altman expressed reluctance about leading a public company despite acknowledging the need for more funding, which dampened market enthusiasm and contributed to lower IPO outcome prices.
OpenAI targets 2026 IPO amid mega-IPO market optimism
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Amid a surge of mega-IPOs in 2026, OpenAI was reported to be preparing for a public offering potentially in late 2026, with a valuation near $1 trillion. Market enthusiasm was tempered by CEO Sam Altman's expressed reluctance to lead a public company, contributing to cautious investor sentiment and price declines.
New York Times highlights 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was among the top tech companies preparing for a 2026 IPO, emphasizing its massive spending plans and valuation near $500 billion to $1 trillion. This reinforced market anticipation but also highlighted the company's high cash burn, contributing to mixed market sentiment.
New York Times highlights OpenAI’s massive spending and IPO preparations
The New York Times reported OpenAI’s plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029 and its conversion to a for-profit aiming for an IPO. The article emphasized the scale of funding needed and the company’s ongoing preparations, sustaining market interest in a late 2026 or 2027 IPO.
Tech Giants Prepare for Mega IPOs in 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
Reports highlighted that OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for public listings, though they remain early in the process, keeping the late 2026 timeline highly relevant.
OpenAI IPO plans face cautious market amid high cash burn and competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive cash burn and fierce competition, especially from Google's Gemini 3, raising doubts about the company's ability to sustain growth and execute a timely IPO. This contributed to a decline in market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expresses zero interest in leading public company despite IPO plans
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Sam Altman publicly stated he has no interest in remaining OpenAI CEO once public, highlighting internal leadership uncertainties amid IPO preparations. This statement contributed to market doubts about the timing and smoothness of OpenAI's public listing, pushing prices lower.
Reports highlight 2026 as potential year for OpenAI IPO amid market optimism
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Media reports in mid-January 2026 emphasized 2026 as a historic year for mega-IPOs including OpenAI, with the company targeting a capital raise of at least $60 billion. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO but also underscored the high stakes and capital intensity, contributing to price fluctuations.
OpenAI explores late-2026 IPO window amid market speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was considering a late-2026 IPO, sparking initial market interest and speculation about timing and valuation, contributing to early price movements.
OpenAI signs $10 billion computing deal with Cerebras amid IPO groundwork
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
OpenAI announced a $10 billion computing contract with Cerebras, signaling its commitment to scaling AI infrastructure and laying groundwork for a potential IPO valued up to $1 trillion. This deal underscored OpenAI's growth ambitions and helped increase market confidence in its public offering prospects.
OpenAI converts to for-profit and plans mega IPO amid $115B spending plan
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
In January 2026, OpenAI completed its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit status, signaling a strategic move toward a public offering. The company announced plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029, underscoring the need for substantial capital and supporting expectations of a large IPO in late 2026.
Reports confirm OpenAI preparing for 2026 IPO with $60B capital raise target
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%1%
Mid-January reports detailed OpenAI's plans to raise at least $60 billion in a 2026 IPO to fund its AI ambitions, reinforcing market expectations for a public offering within the year. This news supported a modest rebound in market confidence after earlier declines.
OpenAI in early IPO preparation stages amid 2026 tech IPO surge
Reports indicated OpenAI was in the early process of preparing for an IPO, with Anthropic also beginning preparations, signaling a potential wave of major AI IPOs in 2026. This news increased market optimism about OpenAI's public offering prospects.
Reports highlight OpenAI's early IPO preparations amid AI boom
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
News surfaced that OpenAI was in early stages of IPO preparations, alongside other AI companies like Anthropic and SpaceX, signaling potential public offerings in 2026. This increased market attention on OpenAI's IPO prospects for the year-end.
Sam Altman states lack of enthusiasm for public company leadership amid IPO plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
On January 14, 2026, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed in a podcast interview that he was "zero percent" excited about leading a public company, highlighting internal ambivalence about going public despite the necessity of raising more capital. This contributed to a market price drop from 34% to 30% in early January.
OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic IPOs expected to create historic market impact in 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
Major media coverage in mid-January 2026 emphasized the anticipated mega-IPO wave including OpenAI, projecting massive capital raises and market reshaping. This coverage coincided with a price drop for December 31, 2026 from 35% to 28%, reflecting market reassessment amid uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO confirms revenue surpassing $20 billion by end of 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion by the end of 2025, highlighting rapid growth but also emphasizing the need to stabilize finances before IPO. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO, supporting prices for longer-dated outcomes.
OpenAI plans massive $115 billion spending and IPO in 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%10%
Reports detailed OpenAI's plan to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029 on AI infrastructure, necessitating a large IPO to fund these outlays. The company’s valuation was estimated at $500 billion, and the IPO was positioned as a key funding event, boosting market interest in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI IPO anticipated as part of 2026 mega-IPO wave with SpaceX and Anthropic
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
Reports confirmed OpenAI among three tech giants preparing for IPOs in 2026, fueling investor excitement and pushing prices higher for the December 31, 2026 outcome. The market viewed this as a historic capital markets event, though no exact IPO date was set.
New York Times reports 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
A January 2026 New York Times article highlighted OpenAI among the top tech companies preparing for historic IPOs in 2026, emphasizing its $500 billion valuation and massive planned spending, which increased market optimism about a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI completes transition to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
OpenAI officially transitioned to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation in late 2025, a critical structural change enabling the company to pursue an IPO, which positively influenced market expectations for a 2026 public offering.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals need for more funding despite reluctance for public company role
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
In a December podcast, Sam Altman expressed little excitement about leading a public company but acknowledged OpenAI's need to raise more capital, fueling speculation about a 2026 IPO. This statement contributed to market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI CEO expresses reluctance about public company leadership but confirms IPO necessity
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
In a December podcast reported in January 2026, CEO Sam Altman stated he was "zero percent" excited about leading a public company but acknowledged the need for raising more capital via an IPO. This candid admission tempered enthusiasm, contributing to a price drop in early January 2026.
OpenAI among tech giants preparing for 2026 mega-IPO year
Reports confirmed OpenAI's active preparations for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, with market watchers noting the companies are still early in the process, contributing to cautious market pricing.
OpenAI completes 2025 restructuring, aims for 2026 IPO amid mega-IPO year
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
By mid-January 2026, OpenAI had completed its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit and was actively preparing for a 2026 IPO, joining other tech giants like SpaceX and Anthropic in anticipated public offerings. This reinforced expectations for a late 2026 IPO but also highlighted the company's massive capital needs and spending plans, tempering enthusiasm.
OpenAI and Anthropic take early steps toward IPOs amid market anticipation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI and Anthropic have taken early steps to go public, with OpenAI valued around $500 billion and aiming for a public offering. This news maintained some market interest but did not reverse the downward trend in IPO timing confidence.
OpenAI acquires health-care tech startup Torch amid IPO preparations
In January 2026, OpenAI acquired Torch, a health-care technology startup, signaling strategic expansion and strengthening of its AI capabilities ahead of the anticipated IPO. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's growth strategy and contributed to market confidence in its long-term prospects for the December 31, 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires health-care technology startup Torch for $60 million
OpenAI's acquisition of Torch signaled continued expansion and investment in AI applications, particularly in healthcare, reinforcing its enterprise growth strategy ahead of a potential IPO. This acquisition contributed to market optimism about OpenAI's growth prospects for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports indicate OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise for AGI project funding
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Mid-January 2026 reports revealed OpenAI's plan to raise at least $60 billion to fund its Artificial General Intelligence ambitions, underscoring the scale and cost of its projects. This news coincided with a market trough at 23%, reflecting investor concerns about the feasibility and timing of the IPO and capital needs.
OpenAI declares 'Code Red' as Google's Gemini 3 gains market share
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
OpenAI internally declared a 'Code Red' due to Google's Gemini 3 outperforming its models and gaining user traction, leading to a drop in ChatGPT traffic and investor confidence. This event coincided with a sharp market price decline for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI closes historic $6.6B funding round, valuation hits $150B
OpenAI secured a $6.6 billion funding round, marking a major private capital milestone and signaling continued reliance on private funding rather than an imminent IPO, which dampened market IPO probabilities.
OpenAI sets aside $50B employee stock grant pool amid $750B valuation talks
OpenAI created a $50 billion stock grant pool for employees and was in preliminary talks to raise funds at a $750 billion valuation, indicating preparations for a public offering and boosting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires executive coaching AI startup Convogo
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%1%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Convogo, enhancing its AI capabilities and signaling ongoing expansion efforts. This acquisition contributed to positive market sentiment about OpenAI's growth prospects, supporting the price rise in early January.
Reports suggest OpenAI may file IPO in second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
New reports indicated OpenAI might file for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, but with no confirmed date, market reaction was mixed, causing minor price fluctuations but no significant recovery in IPO probability.
Market skepticism grows as OpenAI valuation and IPO timing remain uncertain
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Despite ongoing IPO preparations, investor skepticism about OpenAI's valuation and timing increased, reflected in further price drops for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes. Concerns about competition, cash burn, and funding needs weighed on market confidence.
OpenAI sets aside $50 billion employee stock grant pool amid $500 billion valuation
OpenAI reserved a significant stock grant pool for employees, reflecting a $500 billion valuation and ongoing preparations for large-scale funding, signaling investor confidence but also the need for capital ahead of a potential IPO.
OpenAI sets aside $50B employee stock grant pool amid funding talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Reuters reported OpenAI reserved a $50 billion stock grant pool and was in talks to raise funds at a $750 billion valuation, indicating ongoing private funding efforts and delaying IPO expectations.
Judge Rules Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI Can Proceed to Jury Trial
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
A federal judge cleared the way for Elon Musk's lawsuit over OpenAI's for-profit conversion to go to trial, introducing potential legal hurdles and uncertainty that temporarily depressed IPO expectations.
OpenAI Announces Launch of ChatGPT Health
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
OpenAI announced plans to launch ChatGPT Health, allowing users to connect health records to the chatbot, expanding its product ecosystem ahead of its massive fundraising efforts.
Reports highlight OpenAI's IPO likely in 2027, not 2026, amid CEO's timeline denial
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly dismissed rumors of a 2026 IPO timeline, confirming only that an IPO is expected eventually. This clarification further reduced market confidence in a 2026 IPO, pushing prices lower for June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could IPO in 2026, but investor willingness questioned
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Market reports highlighted that OpenAI, alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, could go public in 2026, but concerns about investor willingness to pay high valuations caused market uncertainty. This contributed to a decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome price as investors weighed risks.
OpenAI CEO expresses mixed feelings on IPO timing
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman publicly shared ambivalence about going public, reflecting internal debate and contributing to market uncertainty about the IPO timing. This statement likely influenced the market's cautious stance and slight price decline in early January 2026.
Reports suggest OpenAI targets $60B capital raise for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Mid-January reports indicated OpenAI is preparing to raise at least $60 billion in its 2026 IPO to fund its AI ambitions, reinforcing market expectations for a late 2026 public debut. This news came amid broader enthusiasm for mega-IPOs in the tech sector, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome but also highlighting the scale of funding needed.
Market questions valuation and investor appetite for OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
On January 5, 2026, reports surfaced expressing investor concerns about OpenAI's hefty valuation and the sustainability of its growth, highlighting risks related to profitability and massive compute costs. This skepticism likely contributed to the market price drop from 34% to 31% and further declines in subsequent days.
Bloomberg highlights mixed feelings from OpenAI CEO about going public in 2026
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%6%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed ambivalence about an IPO, reflecting internal uncertainty and contributing to cautious market pricing for the 2026 IPO outcomes.
SoftBank completes $41 billion investment in OpenAI, deepening AI bet
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
SoftBank finalized a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, reinforcing confidence in the company's growth and IPO prospects. This significant funding round supported OpenAI's ambitious AI infrastructure plans and was seen as a positive signal for its upcoming public offering.
Reports highlight 2026 as landmark year for OpenAI IPO and AI sector
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%6%
Early January 2026 reports emphasized 2026 as a pivotal year for OpenAI's IPO, with expectations of a $1 trillion valuation and significant market impact. However, these reports also noted economic uncertainties and investor caution, contributing to a price decline from 35% to 29% over the following days.
OpenAI finalizes transition to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
After years as a nonprofit, OpenAI completed its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a key step toward meeting public market requirements and signaling serious IPO intentions.
OpenAI formally transitions to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI finalized its transition from a nonprofit research lab to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a key corporate restructuring step that enables IPO readiness and attracts public market investors.
OpenAI ramps up finance hiring, eyes historic Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
OpenAI announced a large‑scale finance‑hiring spree and confirmed that it is targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, signaling stronger preparation for a public listing. The news lifted market confidence, pushing the Yes probability from 31% on Jan 5 to 40% by Jan 31.
OpenAI completes conversion from nonprofit to for-profit company
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
OpenAI completed a strategic restructuring in October 2025 to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit entity, opening the door for a potential public listing.
Reports confirm OpenAI's 2026 IPO plans amid $20 billion annualized revenue
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%1%
By the end of 2025, OpenAI's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion, and the company publicly positioned its IPO plans for 2026 to fund massive infrastructure expansion, supporting market expectations for a late 2026 offering.
OpenAI announces major infrastructure investments and spending targets
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
OpenAI outlined ambitious infrastructure commitments and clearer spending targets, signaling readiness for scaling but raising concerns about capital needs, which initially boosted IPO optimism.
SoftBank Completes $41 Billion Investment in OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%6%
SoftBank finalized its massive investment in OpenAI, providing the company with substantial private capital and reducing the immediate pressure for an early 2026 public listing.
OpenAI restructures as public benefit corporation, signaling IPO preparation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI completed a complex restructuring making its nonprofit arm hold a 26% stake in the for-profit entity, a step toward IPO readiness. This supported the December 31, 2026 IPO outlook but did not reverse the overall market decline.
OpenAI faces make-or-break year in 2026 amid mounting losses and competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's significant financial losses and intensifying competition, including setbacks with GPT-5 and Google's Gemini 3, raising doubts about the company's ability to sustain growth and meet IPO expectations. This contributed to a decline in IPO market prices.
OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026 amid mounting losses and expansion plans
An article highlighted OpenAI's critical position in 2026, with mounting losses and ambitious expansion beyond chatbots into chips and devices, underscoring the company's urgent need for funding and strategic clarity, which influenced market sentiment about its IPO prospects.
OpenAI officially transitions to for-profit public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation, a critical step enabling an IPO. This structural change was widely reported and reinforced expectations for a 2026 public offering, supporting market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
Reports highlight OpenAI's $100 billion Project Stargate fueling IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
News emerged detailing OpenAI's massive $100 billion data center expansion project, Project Stargate, underscoring the company's need for substantial capital through an IPO. This reinforced market expectations for a large-scale 2026 IPO, contributing to a slight price increase before subsequent declines.
OpenAI highlights AI capability overhang and deployment focus
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
OpenAI announced the concept of AI capability overhang, emphasizing the gap between AI potential and practical use. This reinforced the view that OpenAI's focus remains on development and deployment rather than an imminent IPO, maintaining lower market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires AI-assisted coding tool Windsurf for $3 billion
OpenAI completed its largest acquisition to date by buying Windsurf, an AI-assisted coding tool, for $3 billion. This acquisition strengthened OpenAI's product offerings and market position, contributing to positive sentiment for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI accelerates product shipping and IPO preparations amid funding needs
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Reports indicated OpenAI was shipping new products and scaling infrastructure while preparing for a potential IPO filing in late 2026 and listing in 2027, reinforcing market expectations for a mid-2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding round at $830 billion valuation
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round that could value the company at $830 billion, reflecting both investor interest and the massive capital needs for AI infrastructure. This funding effort underscored the financial challenges and ambitions ahead of the IPO, influencing market expectations for the 2026 listing.
SoftBank races to fulfill $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by year-end
SoftBank Group accelerated efforts to deliver a $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by the end of 2025, reinforcing OpenAI's capital base ahead of its anticipated IPO. This substantial funding support bolstered market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and IPO timeline, impacting the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding round at $830 billion valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is trying to raise $100 billion in private funding at an $830 billion valuation, signaling reliance on private capital and delaying the IPO timeline. This dampened market expectations for a near-term IPO, pushing down prices for both June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expresses mixed feelings about IPO but acknowledges necessity
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
Sam Altman stated he was '0% excited' about being CEO of a public company but recognized the practical need for an IPO to raise capital and cross shareholder limits. This candid admission highlighted the company's IPO preparations and the likelihood of a late 2026 filing, influencing market expectations for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reportedly tries to raise $100B at $830B valuation
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is attempting to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation to fund its development efforts, with rumors of an IPO as a funding mechanism. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, influencing prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reportedly trying to raise $100B at an $830B valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was attempting to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation to fund its development efforts, indicating ongoing capital needs and IPO preparations. This reinforced the market's view of a late 2026 IPO but also highlighted the scale of funding required, contributing to stable but cautious pricing.
OpenAI in talks to raise $100B at $830B valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's talks to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, signaling ongoing capital needs but also cooling investor enthusiasm about a near-term IPO, contributing to price declines.
OpenAI seeks to raise $100 billion at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
In December 2025, reports emerged that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round valuing the company at $830 billion. This massive fundraising effort was seen as a precursor to the anticipated IPO, aiming to fund extensive AI infrastructure projects and sustain growth.
OpenAI seeks to raise $100 billion at $830 billion valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, aiming to fund development and infrastructure before an IPO. This large private funding effort indicated delays in going public, pressuring near-term IPO market prices.
OpenAI in talks to raise $100 billion at $830 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI was reported to be negotiating a massive funding round aiming to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, signaling strong investor interest but also highlighting the need for substantial capital to sustain growth. This news initially supported the market's IPO optimism for late 2026.
WSJ: OpenAI eyes $100 B raise and late‑2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation and that the funding round would be followed by a late‑2026 IPO. The story reignited investor optimism and drove the "December 31, 2026" price to a peak of 38 % before the market cooled.
OpenAI reportedly aims to raise $100B at $830B valuation, IPO groundwork underway
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%2%
TechCrunch and other outlets reported OpenAI's plans to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, with IPO preparations targeting a filing in late 2026 and listing in 2027, boosting market confidence in a mid-2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO expresses reluctance about going public despite IPO plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%1%
Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, stated he was '0%' excited to be CEO of a public company, reflecting internal hesitations about the IPO despite ongoing preparations. This candid statement likely contributed to market doubts about the timing and certainty of the IPO, leading to price volatility.
Sam Altman expresses reluctance about being CEO of a public company amid IPO hints
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he was '0%' excited to be CEO of a public company, indicating IPO plans were tentative and likely beyond 2025, tempering some market enthusiasm for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO near $1 trillion valuation. This raised market optimism for a late 2026 IPO, boosting prices for longer-dated outcomes.
OpenAI in talks to raise $100 billion at $830 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced plans to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round that could value the company at $830 billion, signaling strong investor interest and the need for capital to fund its AI infrastructure expansion. This news increased expectations for a large-scale IPO potentially in late 2026, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI discusses raising tens of billions at $750 billion valuation
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%2%
OpenAI held preliminary talks with investors about raising tens of billions of dollars at a valuation around $750 billion, signaling serious preparations for a large capital raise potentially linked to an IPO. This news increased market attention on OpenAI's public offering prospects, impacting the June 30, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI discusses raising up to $100 billion at $750-$830 billion valuation
June 30, 2026 rises to 18%2%
OpenAI held preliminary talks to raise up to $100 billion in funding at a valuation between $750 billion and $830 billion, indicating strong investor interest and substantial capital inflow potential. This news supported the market's positive outlook on OpenAI's IPO prospects for June 30, 2026.
OpenAI holds preliminary talks about raising funds at $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
OpenAI discussed preliminary fundraising talks with investors at a valuation of approximately $750 billion, indicating active preparation for a potential IPO.
OpenAI Seeks $100 Billion Funding Round at $830 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion, highlighting its massive capital needs and reinforcing the expectation that it would rely on private funding before pursuing a public listing.
OpenAI preparing for potential $1 trillion IPO with second half 2026 filing
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reuters reported OpenAI may file with securities regulators as early as the second half of 2026, confirming concrete IPO preparations and setting a clear timeline for the public market debut.
OpenAI discusses raising funds at $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%3%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was holding preliminary talks with investors about raising funds at a valuation of around $750 billion, signaling serious IPO preparations and strengthening market expectations for a 2026 listing.
Reports reveal OpenAI discussed raising tens of billions at about $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever, with a potential valuation up to $1 trillion and filing possibly in the second half of 2026. This reinforced the market's view of a late 2026 or 2027 IPO, but uncertainty about timing kept prices subdued.
OpenAI discusses raising tens of billions at $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
OpenAI held preliminary talks with investors about raising funds at a valuation of around $750 billion, signaling serious IPO preparations and boosting investor confidence in the company's valuation.
OpenAI discusses raising funds at $750 billion valuation, eyes 2H 2026 IPO
OpenAI held preliminary talks with investors about raising tens of billions at a $750 billion valuation and is preparing for a potential IPO filing in the second half of 2026. This news initially supported market optimism for a 2026 IPO, reflected in a 33% price before and after.
OpenAI prepares for IPO as early as second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%3%
Reuters reported that OpenAI may file with securities regulators as early as the second half of 2026, confirming the company was actively laying the groundwork for a public market debut.
OpenAI discusses raising $100B at $750B valuation amid IPO groundwork
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%3%
OpenAI held preliminary talks with investors about raising tens of billions at a valuation around $750 billion and was laying groundwork for a potential IPO filing in the second half of 2026. This news confirmed ongoing preparations but also highlighted the massive capital needs and valuation challenges, contributing to market uncertainty.
OpenAI discusses raising tens of billions at $750 billion valuation
OpenAI held preliminary talks with investors about raising funds at a $750 billion valuation and was laying groundwork to go public, possibly filing in the second half of 2026. This news initially supported market optimism for a 2026 IPO, reflected in a 33% price before the event.
OpenAI holds preliminary talks to raise funds at $750 billion valuation
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was in early discussions to raise tens of billions at a $750 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a near-term IPO and increasing market interest in the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI completes transition to for-profit public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI officially became a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a critical structural change enabling a future IPO. This move was widely reported in late 2025 and set the foundation for public market entry, positively influencing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
In October 2025, OpenAI restructured from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO. This change was critical in setting the stage for a potential late 2026 public offering, positively impacting market expectations for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Amazon in talks to invest about $10 billion in OpenAI
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%6%
Reports emerged that Amazon was negotiating a $10 billion investment in OpenAI, potentially valuing the company at over $500 billion. This significant funding prospect boosted investor confidence in OpenAI's growth and IPO prospects, reflected in the price rise for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Reports highlight OpenAI's $800B-$1T valuation and 2026 IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
News emerged detailing OpenAI's valuation between $800 billion and $1 trillion, with plans for a 2026 IPO to fund massive expansion projects. This bolstered market optimism for a 2026 IPO, supporting higher prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI declares internal 'code red' amid rising competition from Gemini 3 and Google
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
In December 2025, OpenAI declared an internal 'code red' as Gemini 3 matched GPT on key benchmarks and Google's integration of AI into iPhones widened competitive pressure. This heightened urgency impacted market sentiment about OpenAI's ability to maintain leadership ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI completes conversion to for-profit aiming for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
In late 2025, OpenAI transitioned from a nonprofit to a for-profit entity to facilitate an IPO, signaling serious intent to go public. This structural change was a key step toward an eventual 2026 IPO, supporting market expectations for a public offering by year-end 2026.
The Economist discusses OpenAI's potential giga-IPO ambitions
The Economist highlighted OpenAI's ambitions to go public, noting the shift from private funding to public market scrutiny and capital access, setting the context for IPO speculation.
Reports highlight OpenAI's planned 2026 IPO with valuation near $1 trillion
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
News emerged detailing OpenAI's plans for a 2026 IPO targeting a valuation between $800 billion and $1 trillion, driven by rapid revenue growth and ambitious projects like Project Stargate. This fueled market optimism, pushing prices higher for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 34% to 36%.
Reports emerge of OpenAI exploring 2026 IPO amid financial pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
Late 2025 reports indicated OpenAI was considering an IPO by the end of 2026, driven by the need to raise capital due to high cash burn and competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic. This news increased market speculation and modestly lifted IPO probability prices.
OpenAI completes restructuring as public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI finalized its corporate restructuring in late 2025, becoming a public benefit corporation and setting the stage for a future IPO. This structural change was necessary but added complexity, contributing to market skepticism about a near-term IPO.
OpenAI completes corporate restructure to Public Benefit Corporation
In October 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, a structural change enabling a traditional IPO. This was a key step toward going public and influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI raises $122 billion to fund AI ambitions
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion capital raise to support its AI development and infrastructure, indicating ongoing cash burn and the need for substantial funding before an IPO, which tempered near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI signals IPO plans for late 2026 amid tech sector listing surge
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman indicated the company plans to go public within the next year, aligning with broader tech IPO activity. This announcement increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO, particularly supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI completes corporate restructuring to prepare for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
In late 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation, simplifying ownership and governance to facilitate a future IPO. This foundational step was critical for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, setting the stage for public market entry.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest-ever funding round
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a record $122 billion capital raise, fueling speculation about its IPO prospects and boosting investor confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI valuation hits $500 billion amid growing investor interest
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI's valuation reached $500 billion in late 2025, reflecting rapid revenue growth and market excitement about its AI capabilities, setting the stage for IPO speculation in 2026.
OpenAI announces record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI closed a historic $122 billion funding round, significantly boosting its valuation to $852 billion and fueling speculation about a 2026 IPO. This massive capital raise increased investor confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects, driving up market prices for later IPO dates.
OpenAI completes large secondary share sale valuing company near $500 billion
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
In December 2025, OpenAI completed a significant secondary share sale that valued the company at about $500 billion, reinforcing high valuation expectations and fueling IPO speculation for 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI exploring IPO by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
Rumors and reports surfaced that OpenAI was considering an IPO by the end of 2026, driven by financial needs and market positioning. This news sparked initial market interest and speculation about the timing of the IPO, affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.2 after 'code red' to counter Google’s Gemini 3
OpenAI released GPT-5.2 earlier than planned as a strategic response to Google's Gemini 3, aiming to maintain technological leadership. Despite the update, user feedback was mixed, and competitive pressures remained, sustaining market uncertainty about OpenAI's growth trajectory and IPO timing.
Disney invests $1 billion in OpenAI and licenses characters for AI video platform Sora
Walt Disney made a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI and licensed over 200 iconic characters for use on OpenAI's video platform Sora. This partnership was a significant endorsement and provided capital support ahead of OpenAI's planned IPO, offering some positive market sentiment.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation amid IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation. This news increased market optimism for a late 2026 IPO, reflected in rising prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI announces ambitious infrastructure spending and growth targets
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
In late 2025, OpenAI announced large infrastructure commitments and ambitious growth targets, rattling markets and increasing speculation about the timing of its IPO, contributing to price volatility.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expresses reluctance about leading a public company
In a December podcast, Sam Altman stated he was "zero percent" excited about leading a public company, signaling internal hesitations about the IPO despite the company's need for more funding. This tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price fluctuations around this date.
Elon Musk signals imminent SpaceX IPO, boosting AI IPO market sentiment
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Elon Musk's implicit confirmation of SpaceX's upcoming IPO in December 2025 positively influenced investor sentiment toward major tech IPOs, including OpenAI, as both companies are seen as leaders in their sectors. This event contributed to a modest price increase in OpenAI's December 31, 2026, IPO market option.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
News surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, signaling concrete progress toward a public offering and sparking market optimism about a 2026 IPO. This caused a spike in market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI completes transition to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI officially transitioned to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a critical step enabling a future IPO. This structural change was widely reported by December, fueling market speculation about a 2026 IPO and causing initial price movements.
OpenAI confirms ongoing IPO preparations with legal advisory discussions
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%1%
In December 2025, OpenAI was reported to be in early discussions with top law firms, including Cooley, about a potential IPO, signaling serious intent but no finalized plans. This news maintained moderate market optimism but lacked concrete timing, reflected in a slight price dip from 33% to 32%.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals IPO plans within next year
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
Sam Altman informed employees that OpenAI anticipates going public within the next year, consistent with confidential SEC filing activity. This announcement increased market confidence in a December 2026 IPO, boosting probabilities for later 2026 outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning IPO by end of 2026
News surfaced that OpenAI was exploring an IPO by the end of 2026, driven by financial needs and market positioning, sparking initial investor interest and modest price increases for later IPO dates.
OpenAI announces $122 billion capital raise for AI ambitions
OpenAI raised the largest capital amount ever, signaling strong investor confidence in its AI future despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI restructures as public benefit corporation to facilitate IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI transitioned into a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation in late 2025, a critical step to enable an IPO by removing previous profit caps and aligning with public market expectations. This corporate restructuring was essential for the planned 2026-2027 IPO.
OpenAI acquires AI startup Neptune to boost capabilities ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
OpenAI acquired Neptune, signaling ongoing expansion and preparation for a public offering, but also highlighting the company's focus on growth rather than immediate IPO timing, which maintained market uncertainty.
Anthropic begins IPO preparations, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
Anthropic, a key competitor to OpenAI, hired law firm Wilson Sonsini to prepare for an IPO as early as 2026, signaling increased competition and urgency in the AI IPO space. This development likely pressured OpenAI's market perception, as investors considered the competitive landscape and timing risks.
OpenAI acquires Neptune to boost AI model training capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
OpenAI's acquisition of Neptune signaled ongoing expansion and investment in AI capabilities, supporting its growth narrative ahead of a potential IPO. This acquisition reinforced investor confidence in OpenAI's long-term prospects, slightly stabilizing market prices.
Anthropic prepares for large IPO in race with OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%2%
Anthropic's IPO preparations and aggressive expansion introduced competitive pressure in the AI IPO space, indirectly affecting OpenAI's IPO market sentiment and contributing to cautious pricing for OpenAI's December 31, 2026 outcome.
Anthropic Prepares for Massive IPO, Intensifying Race with OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Reports that rival Anthropic was actively preparing for its own massive IPO with major banks intensified the AI public listing race, shifting market dynamics and keeping OpenAI's 2026 timelines under pressure.
Anthropic prepares for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Anthropic's reported IPO plans added competitive pressure and market uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing, contributing to cautious sentiment in the AI IPO market.
OpenAI agrees to acquire Neptune to enhance AI model training
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, to improve its internal AI infrastructure. While significant for AI capabilities, this acquisition did not directly impact IPO timing expectations.
Anthropic prepares for large IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Reports that Anthropic is preparing for a major IPO added competitive pressure and uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects, influencing market sentiment and contributing to price declines for OpenAI's IPO outcomes.
Anthropic hires Wilson Sonsini to prepare for IPO
Anthropic, an AI startup backed by Google and Amazon, hired law firm Wilson Sonsini to begin IPO preparations, signaling increased interest in public listings among major AI companies.
OpenAI agrees to acquire Neptune to enhance AI model training
OpenAI announced acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, signaling ongoing strategic investments but not directly impacting IPO timing, maintaining cautious market sentiment.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to boost model training capabilities
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%1%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, enhancing OpenAI's AI development infrastructure. This strategic move signaled OpenAI's growth and investment in technology, positively influencing market sentiment for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to boost model training capabilities
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, signaling its aggressive expansion and investment in AI infrastructure. This move underscored OpenAI's growth strategy ahead of its anticipated IPO, impacting investor perceptions of its readiness and capital needs.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to enhance model training
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, signaling continued investment in AI capabilities but not directly impacting IPO timing expectations.
Anthropic prepares for IPO race with OpenAI, highlighting competitive pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%2%
Anthropic, a major AI competitor, reportedly advanced IPO preparations, intensifying the race to market and indirectly pressuring OpenAI's IPO timeline. This competitive dynamic maintained market caution about OpenAI's near-term IPO prospects, keeping prices low around 32%.
Anthropic prepares massive IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Anthropic, a key competitor, announced plans for a large IPO potentially in 2026, raising competitive pressure on OpenAI. This development contributed to market skepticism about OpenAI's ability to IPO by mid-2026, negatively impacting the June 30, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals no near-term IPO plans despite growth
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
In November 2025, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that the company was focused on scaling rather than rushing to an IPO, dampening immediate expectations for a 2026 public offering and causing some market skepticism.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declares 'Code Red' amid rising competition from Google's Gemini 3
In response to Google's Gemini 3 outperforming OpenAI's models and gaining market share, CEO Sam Altman issued an internal 'code red' to prioritize ChatGPT improvements and delay other projects. This indicated competitive pressure and urgency, contributing to market doubts about OpenAI's near-term prospects.
OpenAI declares 'code red' to improve ChatGPT amid rising competition
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
OpenAI announced a 'code red' effort to enhance ChatGPT in response to stiff competition from Google and Anthropic, signaling a strategic focus that could support its IPO prospects by improving product competitiveness.
OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation faces significant cuts amid market skepticism
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reports indicated that OpenAI’s private valuation was under pressure with investors cutting valuations due to competitive pressures and financial losses. This contributed to continued price declines for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting diminished near-term IPO enthusiasm.
OpenAI valuation faces significant cut amid competitive pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI's $500 billion valuation is under pressure with potential down rounds due to competition and financial losses, raising doubts about the company's near-term IPO prospects and contributing to further price declines.
OpenAI's $500 billion valuation faces significant cuts amid funding challenges
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's $500 billion valuation was under pressure with new investors cutting valuations before investing, signaling funding difficulties and raising doubts about near-term IPO prospects. This contributed to a decline in IPO market prices, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI completes conversion to for-profit status aiming for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
In late 2025, OpenAI transitioned from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation to facilitate a public offering. This structural change was a critical step toward the planned IPO, signaling to markets that a public listing was becoming more concrete, though no exact date was set yet.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declares 'code red' to improve ChatGPT amid rising competition from Google's Gemini 3
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%2%
Facing intense competition from Google's Gemini 3 AI model, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a 'code red' to prioritize improvements to ChatGPT, delaying other initiatives including advertising plans. This highlighted competitive pressures and operational challenges, further reducing market confidence in a near-term IPO.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
In December 2025, reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, with IPO targets potentially exceeding $1 trillion. This news highlighted the company's ambitious growth and funding needs, influencing market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO declares 'code red' to improve ChatGPT, delays other initiatives
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%2%
Sam Altman announced a company-wide focus on improving ChatGPT and delaying other projects, signaling operational challenges that may delay IPO readiness and contributed to continued market caution.
OpenAI announces corporate restructuring to facilitate IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
OpenAI completed a significant corporate restructure in October 2025, converting to a Public Benefit Corporation, enabling a traditional IPO. This structural change was critical for IPO feasibility and influenced market expectations.
OpenAI targets public debut as soon as Q4 2026, backed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was aiming for an IPO in late 2026, led by major banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, fueling early market optimism for a 2026 public offering.
OpenAI restructures and raises $122 billion to fund AI ambitions
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI completed a major capital raise of $122 billion to accelerate AI development and infrastructure, signaling the need for substantial funding before an IPO. This bolstered the company's financial position but also highlighted ongoing cash burn, influencing cautious market sentiment about a near-term IPO.
OpenAI subscriber revenue growth slowing, CEO Sam Altman explores federal assistance
Edward Dowd reported that OpenAI's subscriber revenue growth is slowing, leading to speculation about CEO Sam Altman exploring assistance from the U.S. federal government to support funding needs.
Reports emerge of OpenAI exploring 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
Late 2025 reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for a 2026 IPO, driven by the need to fund its ambitious $1.4 trillion AI infrastructure plan and ongoing cash burn. The company was reportedly in informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, signaling serious IPO preparations.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence in a potential public offering and causing a rise in IPO odds.
OpenAI valuation steady near $500 billion amid IPO speculation
Reports indicated OpenAI's valuation remained around $500 billion with ongoing speculation about a $1 trillion IPO, but growing investor caution and market volatility kept IPO timing uncertain, maintaining downward pressure on the market price.
OpenAI valuation steady around $500 billion amid IPO speculation
Market data indicated OpenAI's valuation remained around $500 billion with IPO plans still speculative and no confirmed timeline, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and stabilizing the market probability for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports emerge of OpenAI considering IPO in second half of 2026
Late 2025 reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar suggested 2027 as more realistic. This news sparked market speculation and price movements reflecting uncertainty about timing.
Sam Altman reinstated to OpenAI board after investigation
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
Following an investigation clearing him, Sam Altman was reinstated to the board, restoring some leadership stability but leaving IPO timing uncertain, which kept market sentiment cautious.
OpenAI executives and researchers depart amid competitive pressures
Throughout 2025, OpenAI experienced significant talent departures to competitors like Meta, raising concerns about its ability to innovate and execute its growth plans, which likely contributed to cautious market sentiment on IPO timing and likelihood.
OpenAI's IPO rumors spark early market speculation for 2026 listing
Starting late November 2025, media reports and rumors about OpenAI's potential IPO in 2026 began circulating, driving initial market speculation and modest price movements for the December 31, 2026, outcome as investors weighed the likelihood of a public offering.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning IPO in late 2026 with $1 trillion valuation
Multiple media outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO in late 2026, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion. These reports fueled market speculation and increased interest in the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting optimism about the company's growth and market potential despite no official announcement.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit alleging misconduct by OpenAI's leadership was dismissed due to delay in filing, removing a significant legal risk for OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal improved market sentiment, particularly for longer-term IPO dates, as legal uncertainties diminished.
Larry Summers resigns from OpenAI board amid Epstein email scandal
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stepped down from OpenAI's board following public backlash over his correspondence with Jeffrey Epstein. This high-profile departure added to leadership instability concerns, negatively impacting investor sentiment about OpenAI's governance ahead of its IPO.
Federal judge denies dismissal of Elon Musk’s antitrust lawsuit against OpenAI and Apple
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
A federal judge allowed Elon Musk’s X Corp and xAI lawsuit accusing OpenAI and Apple of conspiring to monopolize AI and smartphone markets to proceed, increasing regulatory and legal risks for OpenAI. This heightened uncertainty contributed to price declines in the IPO market, especially for nearer-term outcomes.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman temporarily departs amid board conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
Sam Altman was removed as CEO due to board concerns over communication, creating leadership uncertainty that negatively impacted market confidence in OpenAI's near-term IPO prospects.
OpenAI CFO indicates IPO aiming for 2027 listing
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%8%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company is aiming for a 2027 IPO listing, though some advisers predict it could come sooner. This reinforced market doubts about a mid-2026 IPO, causing further price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning a 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising efforts
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
In November 2025, reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing for a 2026 IPO, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion and planning to raise $100 billion to fund its AI infrastructure expansion. These reports increased market interest but also highlighted the company's significant operating losses and funding needs.
Secondary share sales imply OpenAI valuation exceeding $500 billion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Secondary sales in late 2025 implied valuations around $500 billion, tempering some IPO enthusiasm and causing a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 outcome price, reflecting doubts about a near-term IPO.
Market skepticism grows amid lack of concrete IPO timeline
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
Despite ongoing IPO speculation, no official filing or date was announced, leading to a decline in market confidence about a 2026 IPO, reflected in price drops for June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
Analysis highlights challenges for OpenAI IPO amid massive financial commitments
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Reports noted OpenAI's huge financial commitments and revenue growth requirements to justify a $1 trillion IPO valuation, raising doubts about the timing and feasibility of a near-term IPO. This contributed to sustained market skepticism and price stabilization in the mid-30% range.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI's 2026 IPO prospects
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following initial IPO optimism, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply, reflecting investor doubts about OpenAI's ability to go public that soon amid high cash burn and fundraising needs.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest capital raise ever
December 31, 2026 jumps to 16%6%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round to support its AI ambitions and cover cash burn, increasing the likelihood of an IPO in 2026 to raise more capital despite ongoing losses.
Analysis highlights challenges for OpenAI's IPO ambitions
CNN Business analyzed the financial and operational challenges OpenAI faces to meet the high revenue growth needed for a successful IPO, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to continued price declines for 2026 IPO outcomes.
Reports question likelihood of OpenAI IPO in 2026 despite groundwork
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
Media reports and analysts expressed skepticism about OpenAI going public in 2026 due to massive capital needs and profitability challenges, leading to a decline in market prices for IPO outcomes.
Analysts express skepticism about OpenAI IPO happening in 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%44%
Reports and expert opinions emerged suggesting that OpenAI might delay or never conduct an IPO in 2026 due to the need for massive revenue growth and financial commitments, contributing to a sharp drop in market confidence for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI's ability to meet financial commitments for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Analysts highlighted OpenAI's massive capital needs and high cash burn, with projections requiring huge revenue growth to justify a $1 trillion IPO. This skepticism contributed to a decline in market confidence about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI spokesperson states IPO is not the company's focus, casting doubt on 2026 listing
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following earlier reports, OpenAI clarified that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to a decline in IPO probability prices for mid-2026 dates.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest private funding round
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, the largest ever in Silicon Valley, which raised questions about the immediate need for an IPO and contributed to a sharp drop in IPO market prices for mid-2026.
OpenAI's IPO prospects dampened amid market uncertainty and legal risks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following initial IPO plans, concerns about ongoing copyright lawsuits and competitive pressures emerged, causing investor skepticism and a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 IPO probability from 47% to 10%.
Analysis suggests OpenAI IPO unlikely in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Media analysis highlighted the challenges OpenAI faces to go public in 2026, including massive infrastructure spending, lack of profitability, and the need to dramatically increase revenue. CEO Sam Altman expressed reluctance about going public soon, further reducing market confidence in a near-term IPO.
OpenAI restructuring completed, unlocking $30 billion funding
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
OpenAI finalized its restructuring, creating a public benefit corporation and unlocking $30 billion in funding contingent on this completion. This development supported the company's IPO ambitions but also highlighted the complexity and timing uncertainties, contributing to moderate price fluctuations.
OpenAI's IPO price expectations tempered amid market uncertainty
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Following initial IPO excitement, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply from 47% to 11% by November 8, 2025, reflecting investor caution about the timing and feasibility of the IPO within the near term.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC to go public
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 form with the SEC, signaling serious IPO preparations. This filing, coming shortly after rival Anthropic's similar move, increased market optimism, pushing the price to 38%.
Market reacts to early IPO timing uncertainty and competitive pressures
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Following initial excitement, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply from 47% to 11% by Nov 8, 2025, reflecting investor doubts about the feasibility of a mid-2026 IPO amid competition and internal challenges.
OpenAI CFO suggests possible federal government financing backstop
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar mentioned the possibility of federal government support to backstop financing for future data center deals, indicating challenges in funding capital expenditures. This raised concerns about OpenAI's financial needs and further reduced near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI CFO expresses doubts about 2026 IPO readiness
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing risks from spending commitments and organizational unpreparedness. This internal disagreement with CEO Sam Altman dampened market confidence, leading to a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 IPO probability.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirms IPO not on the cards in near term
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
According to a Wall Street Journal report cited by OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, the company has no plans for an IPO in the near term, causing a market reversal as investors reconsider OpenAI's public listing prospects.
Market reacts to mixed signals on OpenAI IPO timing
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%7%
Following initial excitement, market prices dropped as OpenAI spokesperson emphasized IPO is not the current focus, creating uncertainty about the timing and likelihood of a 2026 IPO, leading to a price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reports $11.5 billion quarterly loss amid AI bubble concerns
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Microsoft filings revealed OpenAI lost $11.5 billion in the last quarter, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model and valuation. This financial strain contributed to sharp price drops in the IPO market, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Market skepticism grows on OpenAI IPO timing and valuation
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Following initial IPO news, market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO option dropped sharply, reflecting investor doubts about the feasibility of a mid-2026 IPO given OpenAI's massive capital needs and restructuring complexities.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Walks Back Controversial 'Federal Backstop' Comments
December 31, 2026 rises to 41%2%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar clarified her remarks from a Wall Street Journal event where she suggested the company might seek a federal guarantee or backstop for its massive infrastructure investments. The clarification sought to reassure markets that OpenAI was not seeking a taxpayer-funded bailout.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says IPO is not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
Speaking at the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an initial public offering is not on the cards right now, cooling down immediate market speculation.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by federal jury
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit which removed a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively influenced market confidence in a potential IPO.
OpenAI CFO says IPO not in near-term plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated that an IPO is not on the cards in the near term, clarifying that the company is focusing on scaling operations rather than going public soon. This statement led to a sharp decline in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome price.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar states IPO is not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar cooled down immediate IPO speculation by stating that a public listing is not on the cards right now, shifting focus back to scaling operations.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest capital raise ever
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%6%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round to support its AI ambitions and cover massive cash burn, increasing likelihood of a 2026 IPO to raise further capital.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar States IPO is Not in Near-Term Plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
OpenAI's newly appointed CFO Sarah Friar cooled immediate public listing expectations by stating that an IPO is not on the cards right now, focusing instead on scaling the company's operations.
OpenAI CFO says IPO not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
At the WSJ's Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an IPO is not in the startup's near-term plans, signaling a potential delay in the IPO process.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says IPO not on the cards in near term
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
At the Wall Street Journal's Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an IPO is not planned in the near term and that the company is focused on scaling operations rather than pursuing a public offering soon. This statement countered earlier reports and caused market prices for near-term IPO outcomes to drop sharply.
OpenAI CFO states IPO not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated that an IPO is not on the near-term agenda, tempering market expectations and contributing to a decline in the perceived likelihood of a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO states IPO not in near-term plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
At the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said an IPO is not on the cards right now, contradicting earlier reports and dampening near-term IPO expectations, leading to a sharp price decline for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Amazon announces $38 billion deal with OpenAI amid layoffs
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Amazon's large cloud deal with OpenAI signaled strong corporate support for OpenAI's AI infrastructure, but simultaneous major layoffs in tech raised concerns about the broader AI market environment, contributing to market uncertainty.
OpenAI IPO odds drop sharply amid cautious investor sentiment
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
By early November 2025, market prices for OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, dropped significantly, reflecting growing investor caution and uncertainty about the timing of the IPO.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO could come as soon as late 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Multiple reports including Forbes and SiliconANGLE indicated OpenAI is targeting a 2026-2027 IPO window, with CFO Sarah Friar suggesting 2027 as more realistic but some advisers predicting late 2026. This fueled market speculation and price volatility.
Speculation grows OpenAI IPO may occur in 2027 rather than 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Reports and analysis suggested OpenAI's IPO might be delayed to 2027, citing CFO statements and market conditions. This speculation further pressured prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome, reflecting diminished confidence in a mid-2026 IPO.
Sam Altman Dismisses Specific IPO Timeline Rumors
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed the intense speculation, stating that while an IPO is expected eventually, there is no specific timeline or set date for going public.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Dismisses Specific IPO Timeline Rumors
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
CEO Sam Altman addressed the intense speculation, firmly stating that there is no set date or specific timeline for OpenAI's IPO, cooling down immediate expectations.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027 or later
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Analyses and reports indicated that while OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, the listing might occur in 2027 or beyond, not as early as mid-2026. This increased market skepticism, pushing prices lower for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI likely to do historic $1 trillion IPO in 2026 or 2027
Analysis and reports suggested OpenAI's IPO is likely in 2026 or more probably 2027, highlighting the importance of the IPO for funding and growth but also the uncertainty in timing, which kept market prices subdued.
OpenAI confirms public benefit corporation status, fueling IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%2%
OpenAI completed a major corporate restructuring converting its for-profit arm into a public benefit corporation, unlocking additional funding and fueling speculation about a future IPO, though no date was set. This event maintained some market interest despite cautious official statements.
OpenAI signs $38 billion cloud services deal with Amazon
OpenAI signed a major $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services to power its AI ambitions, reflecting significant capital commitments but not confirming IPO plans, which contributed to cautious market sentiment.
Market skepticism grows on OpenAI's 2026 IPO timing
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Following initial excitement, market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome dropped sharply, reflecting growing skepticism about the feasibility of a 2026 IPO. Analysts noted the IPO plans were preliminary and could shift to 2027 or later, dampening near-term expectations.
Analysis suggests OpenAI IPO likely in 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
An AI-focused analysis indicated that OpenAI is likely to conduct a historic $1 trillion IPO in 2026 or more likely 2027, reflecting market skepticism about an earlier IPO. This reinforced the market's downward adjustment of the June 30, 2026 IPO probability.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar States IPO Is Not on the Cards in the Near Term
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar clarified that the company has no plans for an imminent initial public offering, shifting investor expectations and driving down the probability of a 2026 IPO.
Speculation grows OpenAI IPO may occur in 2027 rather than 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Market commentary and analysis suggested the IPO might be delayed to 2027, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and contributing to a gradual decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Analysts predict OpenAI IPO likely in 2026 or 2027 amid restructuring
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
Industry analysis suggested OpenAI's IPO is likely in 2026 or more probably 2027, following its corporate restructuring. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price decline to around 35%.
OpenAI lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO after Microsoft restructuring
OpenAI announced it was laying the groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion after completing a restructuring with Microsoft, reinforcing its public listing plans.
Sam Altman expresses ambivalence about OpenAI going public soon
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Altman stated he had no specific timeline for an IPO and expressed mixed feelings about being CEO of a public company, which contributed to market uncertainty and declining IPO price probabilities.
Analysts predict OpenAI IPO likely in 2026 or 2027, with 2027 favored
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Industry analysis suggested that while OpenAI aims for a historic $1 trillion IPO, the listing is more likely in 2027 than 2026, reflecting cautious market sentiment and contributing to further price declines for the June 30, 2026, IPO option.
Speculation grows on OpenAI IPO timing shifting to 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
Analysis and commentary suggested OpenAI's IPO might occur in 2026 or more likely 2027, reflecting uncertainty and caution in the market about the timing, which pressured the December 31, 2026 outcome price downward.
Market skepticism grows amid IPO timing uncertainty
Despite ongoing IPO discussions, no concrete filing or date was announced, and some reports suggested the IPO might be delayed to 2027. This uncertainty led to further decline in market confidence about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO dismisses IPO timeline rumors
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Sam Altman stated there is no specific timeline for OpenAI's IPO, contrary to recent reports suggesting a 2026-2027 listing.
OpenAI restructuring completed, unlocking $30 billion funding
December 31, 2026 rises to 41%2%
OpenAI finalized its corporate restructuring, enabling access to $30 billion in funding contingent on this process, but ongoing opposition and complexity raised doubts about IPO timing, slightly stabilizing market prices.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman denies specific IPO timeline but confirms eventual public offering
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Sam Altman publicly denied reports of a 2026 IPO date, stating no board decision or specific date was set, which dampened immediate IPO expectations and contributed to price decline.
OpenAI IPO not on the cards: CFO Sarah Friar confirms no near-term plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
According to OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, citing a Wall Street Journal report, the company has no plans for an IPO in the near term, signaling OpenAI remains a private entity despite its massive valuation.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar States IPO Is Not on the Cards in the Near Term
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar clarified that the company has no plans for an IPO in the near term, dampening speculation of an imminent 2026 listing.
Market reacts to cautious IPO timeline and company focus
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%5%
Following the initial IPO news, OpenAI's spokesperson emphasized that an IPO was not their focus and no date was set, leading to a market price drop reflecting increased uncertainty about a 2026 IPO.
Microsoft filing reveals OpenAI lost $11.5 billion last quarter
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%2%
Microsoft's earnings report disclosed that OpenAI incurred a $11.5 billion loss in the last quarter, raising concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability and dampening enthusiasm for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI CEO says IPO is 'most likely' option but no set timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI, fueling optimism, but the company also said it has no set time in mind for going public, tempering expectations and causing some price volatility.
OpenAI CEO calls IPO 'most likely' path amid market speculation
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely option for OpenAI, reinforcing the possibility of a public offering but without a set date. This statement maintained market interest but also reflected uncertainty, leading to a further price drop to 40%.
OpenAI IPO Odds Collapse as No Near-Term Public Listing Materializes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
At the start of the analysis window, the market experienced a sharp downward correction. The June 30, 2026 option plummeted by 36 points as traders realized that despite ongoing speculation, there was no official timeline or S-1 filing planned for the near term.
OpenAI announces conversion to public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI completed a corporate restructuring, establishing the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation with a 26% stake, which unlocked $30 billion in Softbank funding contingent on completion.
OpenAI reports potential $1 trillion IPO valuation for 2027
OpenAI reportedly plans a 2027 IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion, positioning it as one of the largest tech IPOs ever, with potential capital raising of $60 billion.
OpenAI spokesperson states IPO is not current focus, no set date
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Following IPO rumors, OpenAI officially stated that an IPO is not their focus and no date has been set, injecting caution into the market and causing a pullback in IPO likelihood prices.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans but CEO denies fixed timeline
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the "most likely" option but emphasized there is no set date, countering reports of a 2026-2027 IPO. This introduced uncertainty, leading to a sharp drop in the market's confidence for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome and a decline for the December 31, 2026 option.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Juggernaut IPO at Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file as soon as the second half of 2026.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, clearing path to IPO
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
The same day OpenAI announced its conversion from a nonprofit‑controlled capped‑profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, making a traditional IPO legally possible. The structural change reinforced market expectations of a future listing and contributed to the early rally that later reversed.
Market opens on OpenAI IPO timing speculation
The market opened with roughly 50% odds for OpenAI completing an IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting early speculation and uncertainty about the company's public offering timeline.
OpenAI signals early‑2026 IPO filing, targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion and might file in the second half of 2026. The news sparked a sharp swing in market sentiment – the price rose to a 64 % peak on the same day and then fell dramatically over the next few days as investors digested the uncertainty around timing and valuation.
OpenAI confirms no set IPO date despite preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
OpenAI spokesperson stated that an IPO is not their focus and no date has been set, tempering market expectations despite ongoing IPO groundwork and high valuation rumors.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Trillion-Dollar IPO Slated for Late 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with potential filing as early as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly aimed for 2027.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Blockbuster IPO Targeting Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, aiming for a valuation of up to $1 trillion. While CFO Sarah Friar suggested 2027 was more realistic, advisers predicted it could come by late 2026, driving initial market sentiment.
OpenAI plans IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Reports indicated OpenAI's restructuring was completed, unlocking funding and setting the stage for an IPO possibly in late 2026 or 2027. This added clarity but also highlighted the early stage of IPO plans, causing some market uncertainty and a price drop.
OpenAI spokesperson says IPO not focus but building durable business
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
OpenAI's spokesperson stated that an IPO is not currently their focus, emphasizing building a durable business and mission advancement. This tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to a decline in IPO probability pricing.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO possibly as early as late 2026, aiming for a valuation up to $1 trillion. While the IPO was not the company's immediate focus, this news initially supported market optimism for the December 31, 2026 and June 30, 2026 outcomes before subsequent negative developments.
OpenAI begins IPO preparations targeting $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%14%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion, aiming to raise around $60 billion. This news increased market optimism about a potential IPO by the end of 2026, pushing prices higher.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation enabling traditional IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
OpenAI restructured from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, a key structural change that made a traditional IPO possible and increased market confidence in eventual public listing.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans targeting late 2026 or 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Multiple reports including Forbes and The Guardian confirmed OpenAI's IPO plans targeting late 2026 or 2027, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a 2027 IPO but some advisers expecting sooner. This introduced timing uncertainty, contributing to a price decline.
OpenAI facilitates $6.6 billion employee secondary share sale at $400 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Over 600 current and former employees sold shares worth $6.6 billion in a private tender offer, marking one of the largest pre-IPO liquidity events and signaling strong private market demand and valuation, fueling IPO speculation.
OpenAI confirms restructuring to public benefit corporation, paving way for IPO
OpenAI announced its conversion to a public benefit corporation, with the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation now owning 26% of the for-profit entity, which is expected to unlock $30 billion in additional funding.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman dismisses IPO timeline rumors, confirms future public offering
In response to IPO speculation, Altman stated there is no set date for OpenAI's IPO, though he confirmed the company is preparing for a public offering.
OpenAI officially becomes a public benefit corporation amid IPO talks
OpenAI completed a corporate restructuring to become a public benefit corporation, a step seen as preparatory for an IPO. This move was widely reported and reinforced expectations of a public listing in 2026 or 2027.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans but denies set date, eyes late 2026 or 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 50%14%
OpenAI's spokesperson stated that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, despite media reports of a 2026-2027 IPO. CEO Sam Altman called an IPO the "most likely path" given capital needs, but the company emphasized early-stage planning. This tempered market enthusiasm, causing a price decline from 64% to about 50%.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for IPO Valued at Up to $1 Trillion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, following its transition to a for-profit public benefit corporation. This initial report anchored market expectations around a late 2026 debut.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO as early as late 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO potentially valuing the company at $1 trillion, with filings possibly in the second half of 2026. This news initially boosted market optimism about the IPO occurring soon.
OpenAI lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO
December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is considering filing with the SEC as early as the second half of 2026, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly aiming for a 2027 listing. The company is targeting a $1 trillion valuation.
OpenAI CFO signals possible 2027 IPO, some advisers suggest late 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisers predicted a possible late 2026 listing, creating mixed market expectations and contributing to price volatility across outcomes.
OpenAI completes restructuring into public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a corporate restructure converting from nonprofit to a public benefit corporation, reducing reliance on Microsoft and enabling a path to IPO. This structural change was a key step toward going public and influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans post restructuring, eyes late 2026 or 2027 listing
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
Following its restructuring into a public benefit corporation, OpenAI announced plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, with Microsoft holding a large stake and Softbank unlocking $30 billion in funding. This reinforced the market's initial optimism but also introduced timing uncertainty, causing some price volatility.
OpenAI CEO confirms future public offering
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the 'most likely' option for OpenAI, while also emphasizing there is no set date for the IPO, directly countering earlier reports of a 2026-2027 timeline.
OpenAI CEO says IPO is 'most likely' but no set date
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman confirmed an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI but emphasized there is no fixed timeline, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to price declines especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO likely but no set date, aiming for 2027 listing
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated the company is aiming for a 2027 IPO but emphasized no fixed date, tempering market expectations and introducing uncertainty about the timing of the IPO.
OpenAI IPO plans reported with possible filing in late 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Multiple reports including Reuters and The Economic Times indicated OpenAI's IPO could happen as early as late 2026 or more likely in 2027, with CFO Sarah Friar suggesting 2027. This tempered initial enthusiasm and introduced timeline uncertainty, causing price declines.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Juggernaut IPO at Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%23%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as soon as the second half of 2026, which could value the company at up to $1 trillion. This initial report sparked a wave of optimism, setting the baseline expectations for a late 2026 public debut.
OpenAI CEO confirms IPO is likely but denies set date
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely option for OpenAI but emphasized there is no set date, countering some media reports. This tempered market enthusiasm, contributing to a decline in IPO probability prices.
OpenAI announces plans for IPO as soon as late 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Forbes reported OpenAI's plans for an IPO possibly in late 2026 to fund its massive AI infrastructure buildout, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026-2027 IPO window.
OpenAI prepares for $1 trillion IPO, raising $60 billion
Reuters reported OpenAI was considering an IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion, with a potential $60 billion raise, signaling strong market interest in a major tech listing.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Historic IPO Targeting Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file paperwork as soon as the second half of 2026.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Signals Potential 2027 Listing to Associates
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
While advisers predicted a late 2026 listing, CFO Sarah Friar privately communicated a target of 2027, which immediately cooled expectations for mid-2026 outcomes.
OpenAI targets IPO as early as second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI could file for an IPO as soon as late 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a 2027 listing but advisers predicting sooner. This fueled market speculation and initial price strength for the December 31, 2026 outcome but also uncertainty for nearer-term IPO dates.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says IPO is the 'most likely' path for the company
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely option for OpenAI, reinforcing market expectations despite the company officially stating no set date for an IPO. This statement maintained market interest in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO indicates IPO likely in 2027 but possibly late 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company is aiming for a 2027 IPO, though some advisers predict it could come sooner, around late 2026. OpenAI officially stated IPO is not their focus, adding uncertainty and tempering market enthusiasm.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with possible late 2026 filing
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing for an IPO that could value the company up to $1 trillion, considering filing with regulators as soon as the second half of 2026. However, the company stated an IPO was not their focus and no date was set, causing initial market optimism but also uncertainty.
OpenAI targets IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Multiple reports including Forbes and SiliconANGLE confirmed OpenAI's plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, following its restructuring into a public benefit corporation. The company emphasized that an IPO is not the current focus, but market speculation increased on the timing and valuation, impacting market prices.
OpenAI CFO signals 2027 IPO but advisers suggest late 2026 possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
Reports indicated CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company aims for a 2027 IPO, though some advisers predict it could come sooner, around late 2026. This mixed messaging introduced uncertainty, contributing to a decline in market confidence in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI announces corporate restructure and partnership updates
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI completed a complex restructuring, establishing a nonprofit arm holding 26% stake and Microsoft holding 27%, signaling preparation for a public offering. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 or 2027 IPO.
Reuters Reports OpenAI Lays Groundwork for $1 Trillion IPO as Early as Late 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
An exclusive report revealed that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to potentially file paperwork as soon as the second half of 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing for $1 trillion IPO in late 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Multiple sources reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for an IPO potentially valuing the company at $1 trillion, with filings possibly as early as the second half of 2026. This news initially boosted market optimism for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI completes nonprofit restructuring for IPO
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
OpenAI finalized its transition to a for-profit structure with the OpenAI Foundation holding a 26% stake, unlocking $30 billion in funding from Softbank contingent on completion.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms future public offering
Sam Altman addressed IPO rumors, stating there's no specific timeline but confirming an IPO is expected eventually. This reinforced the company's commitment to a public listing.
OpenAI eyes $1 trillion IPO as early as 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
Reuters reported OpenAI was considering an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, with some advisers predicting a 2027 listing. This fueled speculation about a potential 2026 IPO.
OpenAI restructures as Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
OpenAI converted from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and signaling serious intent to go public.
OpenAI officially restructures as public benefit corporation to enable IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI transitioned into a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a critical step to facilitate an IPO. This restructuring removed previous profit caps and aligned the company with public market expectations, reinforcing IPO speculation.
OpenAI CEO dismisses fixed IPO timeline despite speculation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman publicly stated there is no set date for an IPO, contradicting media reports and causing a sharp drop in market confidence for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI CFO indicates IPO aimed for 2027 but could be sooner
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company is aiming for a 2027 IPO, but some advisers predict it could come as early as late 2026. This added uncertainty about the exact timing, causing some market price volatility.
OpenAI confirms plans for IPO in late 2026 after restructuring to public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
OpenAI announced its restructuring to a public benefit corporation and confirmed plans for an IPO as soon as late 2026, unlocking additional funding and strengthening its partnership with Microsoft. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO, initially supporting prices but also introducing some uncertainty about exact timing.
OpenAI CEO denies fixed IPO timeline but confirms future public offering
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman publicly dismissed rumors of a fixed IPO date, stating no set timeline exists despite acknowledging an IPO is likely in the future. This statement introduced skepticism and uncertainty, contributing to a decline in market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome as investors reassessed the immediacy of the IPO.
Reports confirm OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Multiple sources confirmed OpenAI's consideration of filing with securities regulators in late 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a possible 2027 listing but advisors suggesting late 2026. This fueled market speculation and price volatility for IPO timing.
OpenAI targets late 2026 IPO as revenue hits $25 billion
OpenAI announced it had crossed $25 billion in annualized revenue and was actively preparing for an IPO as early as Q4 2026, with Goldman Sachs advising and plans to allocate shares to retail investors. This news initially supported optimism for a 2026 IPO, reflected in the market price at 50%.
Market prices peak optimism for OpenAI IPO announcement in late 2025
At the start of the analysis window, markets showed peak optimism with prices near 50% for a December 31, 2026 IPO, reflecting early confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans based on industry speculation and anticipation.
OpenAI lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO
Reuters reported OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with a filing possibly in the second half of 2026.
OpenAI considers filing IPO paperwork in second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's consideration to file IPO paperwork in late 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a possible 2027 listing but some advisers expecting late 2026. This added uncertainty influenced market pricing.
OpenAI reportedly lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO as early as late 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file with regulators as soon as the second half of 2026.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says IPO is 'most likely' but no set date
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
CEO Sam Altman confirmed that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI but emphasized there is no set timeline, creating uncertainty about the exact IPO date. This contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for the June 30, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI plans IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports from Forbes and CoinDesk detailed OpenAI's plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, following a complex restructuring that unlocked significant funding. Despite the positive outlook, the early-stage nature and opposition from rivals introduced uncertainty, contributing to price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms IPO is likely but no set date
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI given capital needs but emphasized no set date has been established, tempering market expectations for a near-term IPO.
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