Romania's pro-European coalition government collapsed on May 5, 2026, after a no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), ending Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's minority administration. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with mainstream parties to rebuild a parliamentary majority focused on fiscal stability and EU commitments, though the PNL and USR have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD. This leaves coalition negotiations fluid, with PSD signaling openness to a revised pro-Western arrangement while AUR's involvement remains blocked by a cross-party firewall. The resulting uncertainty over viable majorities, party vetoes, and potential technocratic alternatives has kept leading options tightly clustered, as traders weigh the speed of talks against risks of prolonged deadlock or snap elections.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPSD + AUR 43%
PNL + UDMR 42.3%
AUR 4.6%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.3%
NOWE
NOWE
May 31, 2026
PSD
30%
PNL
-
USR
1%
UDMR
4%
AUR
5%
PSD + PNL
3%
PSD + USR
3%
PSD + UDMR
40%
PSD + AUR
43%
PNL + USR
3%
PNL + UDMR
42%
PNL + AUR
8%
USR + UDMR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
3%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
10%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
4%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
40%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
Other
41%
PSD + AUR 43%
PNL + UDMR 42.3%
AUR 4.6%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.3%
NOWE
NOWE
May 31, 2026
PSD
$30 Wol.
30%
PNL
$101 Wol.
-
USR
$786 Wol.
1%
UDMR
$580 Wol.
4%
AUR
$30 Wol.
5%
PSD + PNL
$118 Wol.
3%
PSD + USR
$456 Wol.
3%
PSD + UDMR
$36 Wol.
40%
PSD + AUR
$122 Wol.
43%
PNL + USR
$51 Wol.
3%
PNL + UDMR
$67 Wol.
42%
PNL + AUR
$160 Wol.
8%
USR + UDMR
$250 Wol.
1%
USR + AUR
$640 Wol.
1%
UDMR + AUR
$330 Wol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Wol.
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$77 Wol.
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$84 Wol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$305 Wol.
3%
PSD + USR + AUR
$297 Wol.
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$369 Wol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$230 Wol.
10%
PNL + USR + AUR
$298 Wol.
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$154 Wol.
4%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$260 Wol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 Wol.
40%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$319 Wol.
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$336 Wol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$361 Wol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$319 Wol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$356 Wol.
1%
Other
$50 Wol.
41%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's pro-European coalition government collapsed on May 5, 2026, after a no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), ending Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's minority administration. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with mainstream parties to rebuild a parliamentary majority focused on fiscal stability and EU commitments, though the PNL and USR have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD. This leaves coalition negotiations fluid, with PSD signaling openness to a revised pro-Western arrangement while AUR's involvement remains blocked by a cross-party firewall. The resulting uncertainty over viable majorities, party vetoes, and potential technocratic alternatives has kept leading options tightly clustered, as traders weigh the speed of talks against risks of prolonged deadlock or snap elections.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Rynek otwarty: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,630Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's pro-European coalition government collapsed on May 5, 2026, after a no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), ending Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's minority administration. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with mainstream parties to rebuild a parliamentary majority focused on fiscal stability and EU commitments, though the PNL and USR have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD. This leaves coalition negotiations fluid, with PSD signaling openness to a revised pro-Western arrangement while AUR's involvement remains blocked by a cross-party firewall. The resulting uncertainty over viable majorities, party vetoes, and potential technocratic alternatives has kept leading options tightly clustered, as traders weigh the speed of talks against risks of prolonged deadlock or snap elections.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Wolumen
$7,630Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Romania's pro-European coalition government collapsed on May 5, 2026, after a no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), ending Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's minority administration. President Nicușor Dan has begun consultations with mainstream parties to rebuild a parliamentary majority focused on fiscal stability and EU commitments, though the PNL and USR have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD. This leaves coalition negotiations fluid, with PSD signaling openness to a revised pro-Western arrangement while AUR's involvement remains blocked by a cross-party firewall. The resulting uncertainty over viable majorities, party vetoes, and potential technocratic alternatives has kept leading options tightly clustered, as traders weigh the speed of talks against risks of prolonged deadlock or snap elections.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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