Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade and policy disputes, have not prompted any government to declare a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Broader bilateral relations with key partners remain intact despite U.S. ambassadorial vacancies and recalls driven by domestic transitions. Historical patterns show expulsions occur mainly amid acute crises or severed ties, neither of which currently align with verified developments through mid-August 2026. Traders appear to view the probability of such an action by year-end as low, reflecting the stability of formal diplomatic channels and the absence of escalatory triggers that would shift consensus toward an affirmative outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano15% szansa
$25,181 Wol.
$25,181 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% szansa
$25,181 Wol.
$25,181 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade and policy disputes, have not prompted any government to declare a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Broader bilateral relations with key partners remain intact despite U.S. ambassadorial vacancies and recalls driven by domestic transitions. Historical patterns show expulsions occur mainly amid acute crises or severed ties, neither of which currently align with verified developments through mid-August 2026. Traders appear to view the probability of such an action by year-end as low, reflecting the stability of formal diplomatic channels and the absence of escalatory triggers that would shift consensus toward an affirmative outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,181Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade and policy disputes, have not prompted any government to declare a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Broader bilateral relations with key partners remain intact despite U.S. ambassadorial vacancies and recalls driven by domestic transitions. Historical patterns show expulsions occur mainly amid acute crises or severed ties, neither of which currently align with verified developments through mid-August 2026. Traders appear to view the probability of such an action by year-end as low, reflecting the stability of formal diplomatic channels and the absence of escalatory triggers that would shift consensus toward an affirmative outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$25,181Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over trade and policy disputes, have not prompted any government to declare a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Broader bilateral relations with key partners remain intact despite U.S. ambassadorial vacancies and recalls driven by domestic transitions. Historical patterns show expulsions occur mainly amid acute crises or severed ties, neither of which currently align with verified developments through mid-August 2026. Traders appear to view the probability of such an action by year-end as low, reflecting the stability of formal diplomatic channels and the absence of escalatory triggers that would shift consensus toward an affirmative outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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