The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 underpins the strong trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by year-end. The Assembly of Experts swiftly designated Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps control, which has sustained governance amid US-Israel military actions and internal protests. Pahlavi, operating from exile, has outlined a transitional framework emphasizing secular democracy and referendum, including recent appeals at international forums for external support of regime change. However, these efforts have not produced mass defections or uprisings capable of altering power structures, with authorities continuing repression of demonstrations. Structural barriers such as constitutional succession rules and domestic military loyalty further limit prospects for an outsider-led transition within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy Reza Pahlavi poprowadzi Iran w 2026 roku?
Czy Reza Pahlavi poprowadzi Iran w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,175,052 Wol.
$1,175,052 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$1,175,052 Wol.
$1,175,052 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 underpins the strong trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by year-end. The Assembly of Experts swiftly designated Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps control, which has sustained governance amid US-Israel military actions and internal protests. Pahlavi, operating from exile, has outlined a transitional framework emphasizing secular democracy and referendum, including recent appeals at international forums for external support of regime change. However, these efforts have not produced mass defections or uprisings capable of altering power structures, with authorities continuing repression of demonstrations. Structural barriers such as constitutional succession rules and domestic military loyalty further limit prospects for an outsider-led transition within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,175,052Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 underpins the strong trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by year-end. The Assembly of Experts swiftly designated Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps control, which has sustained governance amid US-Israel military actions and internal protests. Pahlavi, operating from exile, has outlined a transitional framework emphasizing secular democracy and referendum, including recent appeals at international forums for external support of regime change. However, these efforts have not produced mass defections or uprisings capable of altering power structures, with authorities continuing repression of demonstrations. Structural barriers such as constitutional succession rules and domestic military loyalty further limit prospects for an outsider-led transition within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,175,052Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 underpins the strong trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by year-end. The Assembly of Experts swiftly designated Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps control, which has sustained governance amid US-Israel military actions and internal protests. Pahlavi, operating from exile, has outlined a transitional framework emphasizing secular democracy and referendum, including recent appeals at international forums for external support of regime change. However, these efforts have not produced mass defections or uprisings capable of altering power structures, with authorities continuing repression of demonstrations. Structural barriers such as constitutional succession rules and domestic military loyalty further limit prospects for an outsider-led transition within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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