The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience amid recent military strikes, leadership succession, and economic strains. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as successor, with security forces, military institutions, and clerical bodies renewing allegiance and maintaining control without widespread defections. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed through crackdowns and communications restrictions, while ongoing negotiations and preparations for contingencies have allowed hardline elements to consolidate authority rather than fracture. Traders interpret this institutional continuity and adaptation to external pressure as key factors sustaining the high probability against regime change before 2027, though renewed internal unrest or shifts in diplomatic outcomes could still introduce uncertainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$17,907,959 Wol.
$17,907,959 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$17,907,959 Wol.
$17,907,959 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience amid recent military strikes, leadership succession, and economic strains. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as successor, with security forces, military institutions, and clerical bodies renewing allegiance and maintaining control without widespread defections. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed through crackdowns and communications restrictions, while ongoing negotiations and preparations for contingencies have allowed hardline elements to consolidate authority rather than fracture. Traders interpret this institutional continuity and adaptation to external pressure as key factors sustaining the high probability against regime change before 2027, though renewed internal unrest or shifts in diplomatic outcomes could still introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,907,959Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience amid recent military strikes, leadership succession, and economic strains. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as successor, with security forces, military institutions, and clerical bodies renewing allegiance and maintaining control without widespread defections. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed through crackdowns and communications restrictions, while ongoing negotiations and preparations for contingencies have allowed hardline elements to consolidate authority rather than fracture. Traders interpret this institutional continuity and adaptation to external pressure as key factors sustaining the high probability against regime change before 2027, though renewed internal unrest or shifts in diplomatic outcomes could still introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$17,907,959Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has demonstrated notable resilience amid recent military strikes, leadership succession, and economic strains. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as successor, with security forces, military institutions, and clerical bodies renewing allegiance and maintaining control without widespread defections. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 were suppressed through crackdowns and communications restrictions, while ongoing negotiations and preparations for contingencies have allowed hardline elements to consolidate authority rather than fracture. Traders interpret this institutional continuity and adaptation to external pressure as key factors sustaining the high probability against regime change before 2027, though renewed internal unrest or shifts in diplomatic outcomes could still introduce uncertainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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