Elevated Democratic primary and special election turnout through mid-2026, exceeding 2022 levels even in Republican-leaning districts, has anchored trader expectations for House turnout near or above recent midterm highs of roughly 108–114 million votes. A sustained enthusiasm gap, reflected in generic ballot leads and likely-voter screens favoring Democrats, combines with expanded mail and early voting options to support participation above baseline off-year patterns. Republican mobilization efforts targeting 2024 coalition segments and ongoing redistricting adjustments introduce counterbalancing uncertainty. The narrow spread between the 115–120 million and 120–125 million brackets reflects competing signals on whether base energy and structural factors will produce a modest increase or hold closer to historical norms, with late-cycle polling, GOTV spending, and any major economic or policy developments before November 3 capable of shifting probabilities.