The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, combined with only a few months remaining until 2027, underpins the market's 93%+ consensus on "No." USGS records confirm just five instrumentally documented events of this scale since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku rupture; global recurrence intervals average 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic and historical catalogs. Recent activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 sequence and 2026 events topping out at M7.8, shows no acceleration toward full-margin failure on high-risk subduction zones. While precise short-term prediction remains impossible, current seismic monitoring reveals no anomalous strain buildup that would favor an imminent great event. An unforeseen megathrust rupture in Cascadia or similar settings could theoretically alter odds, though the brief window and lack of precursors make this highly improbable.