US strikes on military infrastructure at Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have heightened attention to the long-standing Iran-UAE territorial dispute. Iran has held de facto control since seizing the islands in 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, anti-ship missiles, and air defenses there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and calls for ICJ referral or negotiations. Ongoing regional conflict, including prior March strikes and UAE alignment with efforts to secure the strait, creates the primary near-term pathway for any shift in control, while Iranian forces continue to operate from the sites. No confirmed change in sovereignty has occurred, and diplomatic channels remain stalled.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Ilha Abu Musa não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A Ilha Abu Musa não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$88,049 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
1%
$88,049 Vol.
31 de agosto
$81,381 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on military infrastructure at Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have heightened attention to the long-standing Iran-UAE territorial dispute. Iran has held de facto control since seizing the islands in 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, anti-ship missiles, and air defenses there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and calls for ICJ referral or negotiations. Ongoing regional conflict, including prior March strikes and UAE alignment with efforts to secure the strait, creates the primary near-term pathway for any shift in control, while Iranian forces continue to operate from the sites. No confirmed change in sovereignty has occurred, and diplomatic channels remain stalled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$88,049Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on military infrastructure at Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have heightened attention to the long-standing Iran-UAE territorial dispute. Iran has held de facto control since seizing the islands in 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, anti-ship missiles, and air defenses there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and calls for ICJ referral or negotiations. Ongoing regional conflict, including prior March strikes and UAE alignment with efforts to secure the strait, creates the primary near-term pathway for any shift in control, while Iranian forces continue to operate from the sites. No confirmed change in sovereignty has occurred, and diplomatic channels remain stalled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,049Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes on military infrastructure at Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping, have heightened attention to the long-standing Iran-UAE territorial dispute. Iran has held de facto control since seizing the islands in 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, anti-ship missiles, and air defenses there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and calls for ICJ referral or negotiations. Ongoing regional conflict, including prior March strikes and UAE alignment with efforts to secure the strait, creates the primary near-term pathway for any shift in control, while Iranian forces continue to operate from the sites. No confirmed change in sovereignty has occurred, and diplomatic channels remain stalled.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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