The US conducted a major military operation on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife via airstrikes and special forces in Caracas as part of an escalation from prior 2025 strikes on suspected drug vessels linked to Venezuelan networks. Maduro now faces US narco-terrorism charges, with Delcy Rodríguez installed as interim president amid a declared state of emergency. Trader consensus reflects the achieved objective of regime pressure and leadership removal, alongside US statements on oil sector influence and transition oversight, reducing near-term impetus for additional strikes absent new threats or failed negotiations. Key variables include interim government compliance, regional diplomatic pushback, and any fresh intelligence on cartel activity or oil disputes within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,700,764 Vol.
31 jan 2026
10 de janeiro
Não
17 de janeiro
Não
31 de janeiro
Não
31 de março
Não
31 de dezembro
Sim
$2,700,764 Vol.
10 de janeiro
$762,710 Vol.
Não
17 de janeiro
$498,642 Vol.
Não
31 de janeiro
$612,192 Vol.
Não
31 de março
$167,757 Vol.
Não
31 de dezembro
$659,463 Vol.
Sim
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US conducted a major military operation on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife via airstrikes and special forces in Caracas as part of an escalation from prior 2025 strikes on suspected drug vessels linked to Venezuelan networks. Maduro now faces US narco-terrorism charges, with Delcy Rodríguez installed as interim president amid a declared state of emergency. Trader consensus reflects the achieved objective of regime pressure and leadership removal, alongside US statements on oil sector influence and transition oversight, reducing near-term impetus for additional strikes absent new threats or failed negotiations. Key variables include interim government compliance, regional diplomatic pushback, and any fresh intelligence on cartel activity or oil disputes within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,700,764Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US conducted a major military operation on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife via airstrikes and special forces in Caracas as part of an escalation from prior 2025 strikes on suspected drug vessels linked to Venezuelan networks. Maduro now faces US narco-terrorism charges, with Delcy Rodríguez installed as interim president amid a declared state of emergency. Trader consensus reflects the achieved objective of regime pressure and leadership removal, alongside US statements on oil sector influence and transition oversight, reducing near-term impetus for additional strikes absent new threats or failed negotiations. Key variables include interim government compliance, regional diplomatic pushback, and any fresh intelligence on cartel activity or oil disputes within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,700,764Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
The US conducted a major military operation on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife via airstrikes and special forces in Caracas as part of an escalation from prior 2025 strikes on suspected drug vessels linked to Venezuelan networks. Maduro now faces US narco-terrorism charges, with Delcy Rodríguez installed as interim president amid a declared state of emergency. Trader consensus reflects the achieved objective of regime pressure and leadership removal, alongside US statements on oil sector influence and transition oversight, reducing near-term impetus for additional strikes absent new threats or failed negotiations. Key variables include interim government compliance, regional diplomatic pushback, and any fresh intelligence on cartel activity or oil disputes within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions