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icon for Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?

Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?

icon for Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?

Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?

Sim

88% chance
Polymarket

$130,590 Vol.

Sim

88% chance
Polymarket

$130,590 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. California’s proposed one-time 5 percent wealth tax on residents with net worth exceeding $1 billion has advanced rapidly toward the November 2026 ballot after supporters submitted more than 1.55 million signatures in late April, nearly double the roughly 875,000 needed for qualification. State election officials are now verifying those signatures, with a deadline of June 25, positioning the measure to clear the threshold with high probability. The initiative, backed by the Service Employees International Union–United Healthcare Workers West and framed as emergency funding for healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal program cuts, faces organized opposition including from Governor Gavin Newsom and competing measures, yet the signature surge remains the dominant factor shaping trader assessments of ballot placement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$130,590
Data de Término
25 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. California’s proposed one-time 5 percent wealth tax on residents with net worth exceeding $1 billion has advanced rapidly toward the November 2026 ballot after supporters submitted more than 1.55 million signatures in late April, nearly double the roughly 875,000 needed for qualification. State election officials are now verifying those signatures, with a deadline of June 25, positioning the measure to clear the threshold with high probability. The initiative, backed by the Service Employees International Union–United Healthcare Workers West and framed as emergency funding for healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal program cuts, faces organized opposition including from Governor Gavin Newsom and competing measures, yet the signature surge remains the dominant factor shaping trader assessments of ballot placement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$130,590
Data de Término
25 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Imposto único sobre a riqueza de bilionários na cédula da Califórnia?" at 88%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?" has generated $130.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?" is "Imposto único sobre a riqueza de bilionários na cédula da Califórnia?" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Imposto de riqueza único bilionário na cédula da Califórnia?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.