Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the 0.1% consensus, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 amid mixed signals. Elevated July inflation at 2.8% driven by energy prices, coupled with unemployment rising to 6.4% and softening household consumption, weighs on momentum, while improving manufacturing PMI at 52.2 and fiscal spending provide counterbalance. With the two leading buckets—1.0-1.2% and 0.7-0.9%—nearly tied, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether export resilience and public investment can offset labor market drag and commodity pressures before Q3 data resolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1.0-1.2% 35%
0.7-0.9% 34%
0.4-0.6% 18.7%
1.3%+ 13%
$21,648 Vol.
$21,648 Vol.
30 out 2026
≤0.0%
6%
0.1-0.3%
5%
0.4-0.6%
12%
0.7-0.9%
34%
1.0-1.2%
35%
1.3%+
13%
1.0-1.2% 35%
0.7-0.9% 34%
0.4-0.6% 18.7%
1.3%+ 13%
$21,648 Vol.
$21,648 Vol.
30 out 2026
≤0.0%
$1,082 Vol.
6%
0.1-0.3%
$1,097 Vol.
5%
0.4-0.6%
$522 Vol.
12%
0.7-0.9%
$2,905 Vol.
34%
1.0-1.2%
$13,158 Vol.
35%
1.3%+
$2,885 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the 0.1% consensus, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 amid mixed signals. Elevated July inflation at 2.8% driven by energy prices, coupled with unemployment rising to 6.4% and softening household consumption, weighs on momentum, while improving manufacturing PMI at 52.2 and fiscal spending provide counterbalance. With the two leading buckets—1.0-1.2% and 0.7-0.9%—nearly tied, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether export resilience and public investment can offset labor market drag and commodity pressures before Q3 data resolve.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$21,648Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the 0.1% consensus, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 amid mixed signals. Elevated July inflation at 2.8% driven by energy prices, coupled with unemployment rising to 6.4% and softening household consumption, weighs on momentum, while improving manufacturing PMI at 52.2 and fiscal spending provide counterbalance. With the two leading buckets—1.0-1.2% and 0.7-0.9%—nearly tied, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether export resilience and public investment can offset labor market drag and commodity pressures before Q3 data resolve.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,648Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the 0.1% consensus, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 amid mixed signals. Elevated July inflation at 2.8% driven by energy prices, coupled with unemployment rising to 6.4% and softening household consumption, weighs on momentum, while improving manufacturing PMI at 52.2 and fiscal spending provide counterbalance. With the two leading buckets—1.0-1.2% and 0.7-0.9%—nearly tied, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether export resilience and public investment can offset labor market drag and commodity pressures before Q3 data resolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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