Recent forecast runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models indicate Beijing’s May 17 high will most likely reach 19 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s 51.5 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology places average highs near 26 °C, so the current cooler pattern reflects a transient high-pressure ridge and reduced insolation. Model consensus narrows the peak between 18 °C and 20 °C, with the 38 % probability on 18 °C capturing downside risk if morning cloud cover lingers or if northerly advection strengthens. Traders are monitoring the next CMA update and local observations at Beijing Capital International Airport, where final resolution will be determined by the official daily maximum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Pequim no dia 17 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Pequim no dia 17 de maio?
19°C 50%
18°C 42.8%
20°C 8%
21°C 1.1%
$43,688 Vol.
$43,688 Vol.
17 mai 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
43%
19°C
50%
20°C
8%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 50%
18°C 42.8%
20°C 8%
21°C 1.1%
$43,688 Vol.
$43,688 Vol.
17 mai 2026
13°C or below
$506 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$629 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,749 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$6,413 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$8,566 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$4,892 Vol.
43%
19°C
$3,177 Vol.
50%
20°C
$4,101 Vol.
8%
21°C
$3,403 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4,958 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$5,354 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models indicate Beijing’s May 17 high will most likely reach 19 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s 51.5 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology places average highs near 26 °C, so the current cooler pattern reflects a transient high-pressure ridge and reduced insolation. Model consensus narrows the peak between 18 °C and 20 °C, with the 38 % probability on 18 °C capturing downside risk if morning cloud cover lingers or if northerly advection strengthens. Traders are monitoring the next CMA update and local observations at Beijing Capital International Airport, where final resolution will be determined by the official daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$43,688Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models indicate Beijing’s May 17 high will most likely reach 19 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s 51.5 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology places average highs near 26 °C, so the current cooler pattern reflects a transient high-pressure ridge and reduced insolation. Model consensus narrows the peak between 18 °C and 20 °C, with the 38 % probability on 18 °C capturing downside risk if morning cloud cover lingers or if northerly advection strengthens. Traders are monitoring the next CMA update and local observations at Beijing Capital International Airport, where final resolution will be determined by the official daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,688Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAARecent forecast runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models indicate Beijing’s May 17 high will most likely reach 19 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s 51.5 % implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology places average highs near 26 °C, so the current cooler pattern reflects a transient high-pressure ridge and reduced insolation. Model consensus narrows the peak between 18 °C and 20 °C, with the 38 % probability on 18 °C capturing downside risk if morning cloud cover lingers or if northerly advection strengthens. Traders are monitoring the next CMA update and local observations at Beijing Capital International Airport, where final resolution will be determined by the official daily maximum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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