A high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is driving southerly warm advection and clear skies for Tokyo on May 17, enabling strong afternoon insolation that the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts will push the official Otemachi maximum into the upper 20s Celsius. This setup sits several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24 °C, placing the market-implied odds—led by 29 °C at 37.5 percent and 30 °C or higher at 30.5 percent—in line with model consensus on peak heating. Subtle differences among the tightly bunched 28–30 °C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any onshore breeze or thin cloud cover that could trim the daily high by 1–2 °C, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are weighing the latest JMA guidance ahead of tomorrow’s official reading.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 17 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 17 de maio?
29°C 37%
30°C or higher 31%
28°C 28%
27°C 8%
NOVO
$21,276 Vol.
NOVO
$21,276 Vol.
17 mai 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
28%
29°C
37%
30°C or higher
31%
29°C 37%
30°C or higher 31%
28°C 28%
27°C 8%
NOVO
$21,276 Vol.
NOVO
$21,276 Vol.
17 mai 2026
20°C or below
$2,294 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$772 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,915 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,562 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,846 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,635 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,642 Vol.
8%
28°C
$1,559 Vol.
28%
29°C
$1,206 Vol.
37%
30°C or higher
$2,048 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is driving southerly warm advection and clear skies for Tokyo on May 17, enabling strong afternoon insolation that the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts will push the official Otemachi maximum into the upper 20s Celsius. This setup sits several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24 °C, placing the market-implied odds—led by 29 °C at 37.5 percent and 30 °C or higher at 30.5 percent—in line with model consensus on peak heating. Subtle differences among the tightly bunched 28–30 °C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any onshore breeze or thin cloud cover that could trim the daily high by 1–2 °C, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are weighing the latest JMA guidance ahead of tomorrow’s official reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$21,276Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is driving southerly warm advection and clear skies for Tokyo on May 17, enabling strong afternoon insolation that the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts will push the official Otemachi maximum into the upper 20s Celsius. This setup sits several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24 °C, placing the market-implied odds—led by 29 °C at 37.5 percent and 30 °C or higher at 30.5 percent—in line with model consensus on peak heating. Subtle differences among the tightly bunched 28–30 °C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any onshore breeze or thin cloud cover that could trim the daily high by 1–2 °C, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are weighing the latest JMA guidance ahead of tomorrow’s official reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,276Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTA high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is driving southerly warm advection and clear skies for Tokyo on May 17, enabling strong afternoon insolation that the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts will push the official Otemachi maximum into the upper 20s Celsius. This setup sits several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24 °C, placing the market-implied odds—led by 29 °C at 37.5 percent and 30 °C or higher at 30.5 percent—in line with model consensus on peak heating. Subtle differences among the tightly bunched 28–30 °C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any onshore breeze or thin cloud cover that could trim the daily high by 1–2 °C, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Traders are weighing the latest JMA guidance ahead of tomorrow’s official reading.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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