Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a dry, stable high-pressure regime over central Spain, with southerly flow and strong diurnal heating expected to push Madrid’s Retiro-station maximum to the 35–36 °C range on 18 June. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient surface warming, while modest differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing explain the tight 42.5 % / 37 % split between the two leading contracts. Seasonal outlooks already flagged above-normal June temperatures across the peninsula, providing context but little additional near-term signal. The next 00–12 UTC model cycles and AEMET’s afternoon update remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities by a few percentage points before the market resolves.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 18?
35°C 43%
36°C 37%
34°C 14%
37°C 7.0%
NOVO
NOVO
18 jun 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
14%
35°C
43%
36°C
37%
37°C
7%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 43%
36°C 37%
34°C 14%
37°C 7.0%
NOVO
NOVO
18 jun 2026
31°C or below
$754 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$562 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$479 Vol.
1%
34°C
$2,232 Vol.
14%
35°C
$1,022 Vol.
43%
36°C
$1,636 Vol.
37%
37°C
$1,016 Vol.
7%
38°C
$465 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$409 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$302 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$302 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a dry, stable high-pressure regime over central Spain, with southerly flow and strong diurnal heating expected to push Madrid’s Retiro-station maximum to the 35–36 °C range on 18 June. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient surface warming, while modest differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing explain the tight 42.5 % / 37 % split between the two leading contracts. Seasonal outlooks already flagged above-normal June temperatures across the peninsula, providing context but little additional near-term signal. The next 00–12 UTC model cycles and AEMET’s afternoon update remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities by a few percentage points before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ET
Volume
$9,120Data de Término
18 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a dry, stable high-pressure regime over central Spain, with southerly flow and strong diurnal heating expected to push Madrid’s Retiro-station maximum to the 35–36 °C range on 18 June. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient surface warming, while modest differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing explain the tight 42.5 % / 37 % split between the two leading contracts. Seasonal outlooks already flagged above-normal June temperatures across the peninsula, providing context but little additional near-term signal. The next 00–12 UTC model cycles and AEMET’s afternoon update remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities by a few percentage points before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,120Data de Término
18 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a dry, stable high-pressure regime over central Spain, with southerly flow and strong diurnal heating expected to push Madrid’s Retiro-station maximum to the 35–36 °C range on 18 June. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient surface warming, while modest differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing explain the tight 42.5 % / 37 % split between the two leading contracts. Seasonal outlooks already flagged above-normal June temperatures across the peninsula, providing context but little additional near-term signal. The next 00–12 UTC model cycles and AEMET’s afternoon update remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities by a few percentage points before the market resolves.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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