**Current forecasts from major meteorological models indicate a highest temperature in Moscow on June 18 most likely in the 15–17°C range, aligning with the market’s clustering around 16°C as the modal outcome.** This positioning stems from a persistent trough of cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover associated with a slow-moving low-pressure system over western Russia, limiting daytime heating despite June’s lengthening daylight. Ensemble guidance from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows tight clustering near 16°C, with modest spread reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Recent model runs have trended slightly cooler over the past 48 hours as observations confirmed stronger northerly flow, elevating implied probabilities for 15–16°C while capping upside risk above 18°C. Historical June climatology places average daily maxima near 20–22°C, so the current pattern represents a below-normal episode driven by transient synoptic features rather than seasonal anomalies. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will provide the final refinement ahead of market resolution.