**Forecasts for June 16 point to a maximum of 26–29°C amid rain and thunderstorms, aligning with the tight market clustering around 28–30°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook shows 26–29°C with rain, while broader seasonal guidance anticipates above-normal temperatures for June–August overall. Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with the southwest monsoon and regional moisture are the dominant near-term suppressors of peak readings, preventing stronger daytime heating despite the early-summer climatological baseline near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects this balance: modest probabilities for 28°C and 29°C capture the likelihood of limited sunshine, whereas the 30°C slice accounts for any breaks in cloud or localized urban heating. Model spread remains modest this close to the date, but additional updates on precipitation timing or intensity could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C and move the market accordingly. Historical June maxima in Hong Kong frequently reach 30–32°C under clearer conditions, underscoring how sensitive the outcome remains to short-term convective activity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?
29°C 32%
28°C 26%
30°C 24%
27°C 12%
NOVO
NOVO
16 jun 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
12%
28°C
26%
29°C
32%
30°C
24%
31°C
7%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 32%
28°C 26%
30°C 24%
27°C 12%
NOVO
NOVO
16 jun 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2 Vol.
1%
26°C
$54 Vol.
4%
27°C
$25 Vol.
12%
28°C
$34 Vol.
26%
29°C
$147 Vol.
32%
30°C
$55 Vol.
24%
31°C
$218 Vol.
7%
32°C
$100 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecasts for June 16 point to a maximum of 26–29°C amid rain and thunderstorms, aligning with the tight market clustering around 28–30°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook shows 26–29°C with rain, while broader seasonal guidance anticipates above-normal temperatures for June–August overall. Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with the southwest monsoon and regional moisture are the dominant near-term suppressors of peak readings, preventing stronger daytime heating despite the early-summer climatological baseline near 31°C.
Trader consensus reflects this balance: modest probabilities for 28°C and 29°C capture the likelihood of limited sunshine, whereas the 30°C slice accounts for any breaks in cloud or localized urban heating. Model spread remains modest this close to the date, but additional updates on precipitation timing or intensity could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C and move the market accordingly. Historical June maxima in Hong Kong frequently reach 30–32°C under clearer conditions, underscoring how sensitive the outcome remains to short-term convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$635Data de Término
16 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecasts for June 16 point to a maximum of 26–29°C amid rain and thunderstorms, aligning with the tight market clustering around 28–30°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook shows 26–29°C with rain, while broader seasonal guidance anticipates above-normal temperatures for June–August overall. Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with the southwest monsoon and regional moisture are the dominant near-term suppressors of peak readings, preventing stronger daytime heating despite the early-summer climatological baseline near 31°C.
Trader consensus reflects this balance: modest probabilities for 28°C and 29°C capture the likelihood of limited sunshine, whereas the 30°C slice accounts for any breaks in cloud or localized urban heating. Model spread remains modest this close to the date, but additional updates on precipitation timing or intensity could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C and move the market accordingly. Historical June maxima in Hong Kong frequently reach 30–32°C under clearer conditions, underscoring how sensitive the outcome remains to short-term convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$635Data de Término
16 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts for June 16 point to a maximum of 26–29°C amid rain and thunderstorms, aligning with the tight market clustering around 28–30°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s current outlook shows 26–29°C with rain, while broader seasonal guidance anticipates above-normal temperatures for June–August overall. Persistent cloud cover and showers associated with the southwest monsoon and regional moisture are the dominant near-term suppressors of peak readings, preventing stronger daytime heating despite the early-summer climatological baseline near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects this balance: modest probabilities for 28°C and 29°C capture the likelihood of limited sunshine, whereas the 30°C slice accounts for any breaks in cloud or localized urban heating. Model spread remains modest this close to the date, but additional updates on precipitation timing or intensity could shift the exact maximum by 1–2°C and move the market accordingly. Historical June maxima in Hong Kong frequently reach 30–32°C under clearer conditions, underscoring how sensitive the outcome remains to short-term convective activity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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