**Latest official forecasts position the overnight minimum in London on June 16 around 14–16 °C, driving the market’s concentration on those outcomes.** The Met Office explicitly lists a 16 °C nighttime low alongside a 26 °C daytime maximum, while ensemble guidance and other models cluster near 14–15 °C, reflecting a mild maritime air mass and limited radiative cooling under the current synoptic pattern. This is modestly above the long-term June climatological average low of roughly 11–12 °C, consistent with the post-May cooling trend that has left early-to-mid June temperatures near or slightly above normal without strong high-pressure setups favoring sharper overnight drops. Model consensus remains relatively tight this close to the event, though small shifts in cloud cover, wind, or frontal timing could still nudge the realized minimum by 1–2 °C. Fresh short-range updates from the Met Office and ECMWF over the next 48 hours represent the primary catalysts likely to move the implied probabilities before resolution.