**Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35 °C, producing the tight 45.5 % / 44.5 % split between those two outcomes.** Daytime heating under partly cloudy skies is expected to drive temperatures upward through early afternoon, while the urban heat-island effect and light northerly winds add 1–2 °C locally. The key uncertainty lies in the timing and coverage of forecast thundershowers: earlier or more widespread convection could cap the peak at 34 °C by limiting insolation, whereas delayed or isolated activity would allow readings to reach 35 °C before cooling. Latest model runs show only modest spread around these values, keeping higher (36 °C+) or lower (≤33 °C) outcomes below 6 % combined implied probability. Updated AEMET guidance and afternoon observations will likely decide the final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 14?
35°C 46%
34°C 45%
36°C 4.4%
33°C 1.0%
$47,633 Vol.
$47,633 Vol.
14 jun 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
45%
35°C
46%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 45%
36°C 4.4%
33°C 1.0%
$47,633 Vol.
$47,633 Vol.
14 jun 2026
31°C or below
$3,939 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,143 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$8,065 Vol.
1%
34°C
$6,672 Vol.
45%
35°C
$9,877 Vol.
46%
36°C
$8,591 Vol.
4%
37°C
$3,460 Vol.
1%
38°C
$1,427 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$422 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35 °C, producing the tight 45.5 % / 44.5 % split between those two outcomes.** Daytime heating under partly cloudy skies is expected to drive temperatures upward through early afternoon, while the urban heat-island effect and light northerly winds add 1–2 °C locally. The key uncertainty lies in the timing and coverage of forecast thundershowers: earlier or more widespread convection could cap the peak at 34 °C by limiting insolation, whereas delayed or isolated activity would allow readings to reach 35 °C before cooling. Latest model runs show only modest spread around these values, keeping higher (36 °C+) or lower (≤33 °C) outcomes below 6 % combined implied probability. Updated AEMET guidance and afternoon observations will likely decide the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$47,633Data de Término
14 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35 °C, producing the tight 45.5 % / 44.5 % split between those two outcomes.** Daytime heating under partly cloudy skies is expected to drive temperatures upward through early afternoon, while the urban heat-island effect and light northerly winds add 1–2 °C locally. The key uncertainty lies in the timing and coverage of forecast thundershowers: earlier or more widespread convection could cap the peak at 34 °C by limiting insolation, whereas delayed or isolated activity would allow readings to reach 35 °C before cooling. Latest model runs show only modest spread around these values, keeping higher (36 °C+) or lower (≤33 °C) outcomes below 6 % combined implied probability. Updated AEMET guidance and afternoon observations will likely decide the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$47,633Data de Término
14 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35 °C, producing the tight 45.5 % / 44.5 % split between those two outcomes.** Daytime heating under partly cloudy skies is expected to drive temperatures upward through early afternoon, while the urban heat-island effect and light northerly winds add 1–2 °C locally. The key uncertainty lies in the timing and coverage of forecast thundershowers: earlier or more widespread convection could cap the peak at 34 °C by limiting insolation, whereas delayed or isolated activity would allow readings to reach 35 °C before cooling. Latest model runs show only modest spread around these values, keeping higher (36 °C+) or lower (≤33 °C) outcomes below 6 % combined implied probability. Updated AEMET guidance and afternoon observations will likely decide the final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions