Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, producing the market’s near-even split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and surface wind speeds will decide whether the official Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next model cycle or observational updates can readily shift probability between the two leading contracts while keeping tail risks below 2%. Historical mid-June averages near 29–30°C provide context, but current conditions sit slightly above climatology.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
32°C 38%
31°C 36%
33°C 11.3%
30°C 7%
NOVO
$15,882 Vol.
NOVO
$15,882 Vol.
15 jun 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
36%
32°C
38%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
31°C 36%
33°C 11.3%
30°C 7%
NOVO
$15,882 Vol.
NOVO
$15,882 Vol.
15 jun 2026
27°C or below
$399 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,627 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,872 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,908 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,417 Vol.
36%
32°C
$1,788 Vol.
38%
33°C
$2,165 Vol.
11%
34°C
$2,909 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,086 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, producing the market’s near-even split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and surface wind speeds will decide whether the official Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next model cycle or observational updates can readily shift probability between the two leading contracts while keeping tail risks below 2%. Historical mid-June averages near 29–30°C provide context, but current conditions sit slightly above climatology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$15,882Data de Término
15 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, producing the market’s near-even split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and surface wind speeds will decide whether the official Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next model cycle or observational updates can readily shift probability between the two leading contracts while keeping tail risks below 2%. Historical mid-June averages near 29–30°C provide context, but current conditions sit slightly above climatology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,882Data de Término
15 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, producing the market’s near-even split between those outcomes. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and surface wind speeds will decide whether the official Retiro station peaks at the lower or higher end of that narrow range. With no strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave setup in place, forecast uncertainty remains elevated; small revisions in the next model cycle or observational updates can readily shift probability between the two leading contracts while keeping tail risks below 2%. Historical mid-June averages near 29–30°C provide context, but current conditions sit slightly above climatology.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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